Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CENTER OF REMMANTS OF T.D BILL MOVG NORTH ALONG I-35 INTO
SOUTHERN OK. FEEDER BAND OVER SE TX/SW LA HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING
NWD INTO NORTHERN LA. SMALLER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NE TX...ALSO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THUS...HEAVY SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAY BECOME
PREVAILING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AT MOST OF THE AREAL
TERMINALS. KSHV IS BTWN THESE TWO AREAS AND MAY NOT SEE CONVECTION
FOR SVRL MORE HOURS...AND KLFK MAY REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE
INCHREASING AREA JUST TO ITS EAST. ALSO...DEEPER SE FLOW OVER NE
TX ALSO BRINING IN LOW MVFR CIGS WITH OCNL IFR CIGS FOR REST OF
THE NIGHT. FURTHER EAST OVER KMLU AND KELD...WET GROUND...LGT
WINDS...AND NARROW TEMP DEW POINT SPREADS MAY INDUCE FOG AT THESE
SITES. SE WINDS ELSEWHERE AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KTS BTWN 18/12-15Z. /VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
INCLUDE PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS. ALSO INCREASED THE
QPF/AMOUNT OF EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO TRAIN
OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS AREA
HAS HAD HEAVY RINFALL EARLIER AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MOVING
ACROSS THIS AREA WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DUE
TO THE HIGH WATER LEVELS OF THE BACKWATER OFF THE RED RIVER WHICH
IS AT A HIGH STAGE. ADDITIONAL SMALLER FEEDER BANDS OF RAIN ALSO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WILL KEEP THE SOILS NEAR SATURATION...WHICH LATER
INTO THE NIGHT WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS
AROUND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  75  90 /  60  50  30  30
MLU  73  92  75  92 /  70  30  20  30
DEQ  74  82  72  86 /  70  70  70  40
TXK  74  87  74  88 /  70  70  60  40
ELD  73  89  73  90 /  70  50  40  40
TYR  74  86  74  89 /  70  70  40  30
GGG  74  88  74  90 /  70  70  40  30
LFK  75  90  75  91 /  60  60  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059-
     060-070.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-
     011>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-152-
     165>167.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-181115-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
GREGG-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...A
COUPLE OF WEAK TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM APPEAR
FAVORABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL. THE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING ON THE NECHES...SABINE... ANGELINA...AND
SULPHUR RIVERS OF EAST TEXAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

A NEW RISE WILL DEVELOP ON THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH
OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS JUNE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS COULD BE REQUIRED DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SPIRAL THUNDERSTORM BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-112-
126-138-151>153-165>167-181115-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-BOWIE-CASS-MARION-HARRISON-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VIII.