Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Springfield, MO

March 24, 2015Polk County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 24, 2015, 5:55 PM CDT for Polk County, Missouri. It was in force for 35 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 24, 2015, 5:55 PM CDT (22:55 UTC)
Expired: Mar 24, 2015, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Polk County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 24, 6:17 PM CDT	HAIL 1.25	Half Way, MO
Mar 24, 6:21 PM CDT	HAIL 1	2 Se Half Way, MO

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 22 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 24, 2:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -269 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1309 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 95 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 141 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

555 
WUUS53 KSGF 242255
SVRSGF
MOC167-242330-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0014.150324T2255Z-150324T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 554 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOLIVAR...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALDRICH...BOLIVAR...EUDORA...FAIR PLAY...GOODSON...HALF WAY...
  MORRISVILLE AND POLK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES STOCKTON LAKE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9319 3773 9318 3747 9318 3745 9356
      3759 9362 3763 9362 3780 9319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 248DEG 49KT 3758 9346

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

WISE

2 follow-up statements

939 
WWUS53 KSGF 242302
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
602 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MOC167-242330-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150324T2330Z/
POLK MO-
602 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN POLK
COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 600 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOLIVAR...AND
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOLIVAR...GOODSON...HALF WAY...MORRISVILLE AND POLK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3762 9350 3769 9348 3780 9319 3773 9319
      3773 9318 3747 9318 3745 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 248DEG 46KT 3760 9339

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

WISE

316 
WWUS53 KSGF 242323
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MOC167-242333-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150324T2330Z/
POLK MO-
623 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN POLK COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3762 9350 3769 9348 3780 9319 3773 9319
      3773 9318 3747 9318 3745 9348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 248DEG 46KT 3770 9307

$$

WISE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 24, 2:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 24, 2:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

In the near term severe weather chances are the obvious concern.

Sfc low over just north of KEQA in se KS as of 18z will progress
east with a trailing dry line/sfc trough moving into the eastern
cwfa by 21z. Cap in place now, but a combo of daytime warming,
mid level cooling with increased lift and a narrow corridor of
low level moisture advection is expected to weaken the cap over
the next couple of hours allowing sfc convergence near the
boundary to initiate storms. Latest high res guidance (HRRR, among
others) have been consistent with developing convection by 21z-22z
close to the se KS/sw Mo state line. While model dew points may be
a bit bullish, still looks like a good bet with a corridor/broken
line of convection moving quickly w-e through the cwfa late this
afternoon and early this evening.

ML CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg indicated by the HRRR in a
narrow corridor along the sfc trough coupled with more than
adequate deep level 0-6 km bulk shear of around 40-50 kts and 0-3
km helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will allow rotating updrafts to
develop with stronger convection. With somewhat limited low level
moisture/higher cloud bases, the main storm hazard will be hail
given steep mid level lapse rates. Localized severe winds also a
possibility. The tornado risk would appear low (but not zero),
again given the lack of deeper low level moisture and a veered low
level sfc wind profile along the sfc trough.

The severe window should be small time-wise. Storms should quickly
move east through the cwfa this evening, weakening late with more
limited instability.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A second shortwave, more positively tilted,  will make it's way
through the region Wed with a cold frontal passage expected.
Weather hazards may include some severe wx and a risk of excessive
rainfall over the southeast half of the cwfa.

Storms are expected to re-initiate in the afternoon gradually
coalescing into line segments, potentially training, over parts of
southern mo late in the afternoon and evening. Again the main
storm concerns will be during the initialization phase with hail
and winds with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg over far southern
MO with abundant deep layer shear. With the potential for training
storms in the evening, some guidance is hitting rainfall amounts
hard (particularly the 12z ECMWF, NAM, GFS) in south central MO
where recent heavy rain and flooding occurred. Will be looking at
a possible flood watch for portions of the area, but still
ironing out the details.

Unseasonable cold is expected late in the week as a deep upper
level trough develops over much of the eastern CONUS. Nighttime
temperatures will drop below freezing late in the week. Small
scale shortwaves moving se through the region may kick off some
light/brief periods of rain/snow at times. A modest warming trend
develops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Pilots flying in and out of
the southwest Missouri airports need to monitor radar closely late
this afternoon and this evening.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Kansas and
the Missouri state line, and move east through much of southern
and central Missouri.

Large hail appears to be the main severe weather risk with these
storms.

By 8 or 9pm, this activity will shift east of the southwest
Missouri airports, allowing for VFR conditions the rest of the
night.

Look for surface winds to become light and variable by mid
evening.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 24, 3:16 PM CDT, 2 hours 39 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-252030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
  THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
  BALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THE RISK FOR
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL
  AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
  WEATHER RISKS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI...WHICH WILL POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
  ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO
  ROLLA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 24, 5:38 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             1 SSE BOLIVAR           37.60N 93.40W
03/24/2015  E1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BURCHFIELD

Local storm report, Mar 24, 5:40 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             MONETT                  38.03N 93.84W
03/24/2015  E1.00 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BURCHFIELD

Local storm report, Mar 24, 5:41 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             MONETT                  36.92N 93.93W
03/24/2015  E1.00 INCH       BARRY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BURCHFIELD

Local storm report, Mar 24, 5:45 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
545 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT HOPE           37.46N 93.27W
03/24/2015  E1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BURCHFIELD

Local storm report, Mar 24, 5:47 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             1 NW VERONA             36.97N 93.81W
03/24/2015  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

BURCHFIELD

Local storm report, Mar 24, 5:54 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             GOODMAN                 36.74N 94.40W
03/24/2015  E1.00 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BURCHFIELD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 24, 2:53 PM CDT	Flood Watch	SGF	Barry, Christian, Dent, Douglas, Greene, Howell and 14 more	37 hr
Mar 24, 4:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	45 min
Mar 24, 4:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Vernon	49 min
Mar 24, 4:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Vernon	47 min
Mar 24, 4:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Jasper	48 min
Mar 24, 4:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Cedar, Dade	54 min
Mar 24, 4:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	St. Clair	49 min
Mar 24, 4:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Newton	33 min
Mar 24, 5:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	McDonald, Newton	30 min
Mar 24, 5:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Hickory	38 min
Mar 24, 5:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry, Lawrence	52 min
Mar 24, 5:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Polk	36 min
Mar 24, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Lawrence	21 min
Mar 24, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Polk	30 min
Mar 24, 5:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dade, Greene	54 min
Mar 24, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian, Stone, Taney	61 min
Mar 24, 5:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dallas, Webster	25 min
Mar 24, 6:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dallas	30 min
Mar 24, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry, Stone, Taney	60 min
Mar 24, 6:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Webster	41 min
Mar 24, 6:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Laclede	44 min
Mar 24, 6:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Taney	31 min
Mar 24, 6:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Wright	27 min
Mar 24, 6:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Webster, Wright	39 min
Mar 24, 6:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas, Ozark, Taney	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.