Alert archive / Missouri / Flood Watches in 2015

Flood Watch 2, NWS Springfield, MO

March 24, 201520 counties in Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this flood watch at Mar 24, 2015, 2:53 PM CDT for 20 counties in Missouri. It took effect at Mar 25, 2015, 4:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 24, 2015, 2:53 PM CDT (19:53 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 25, 2015, 4:00 PM CDT
Expired
Mar 26, 2015, 3:26 AM CDT
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Springfield, MO
Flood severity
None

Counties Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-03-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-03-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 95 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-269 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1309 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
141 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Mar 24, 2:23 PM CDT, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 24, 2:23 PM CDT, 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
223 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

In the near term severe weather chances are the obvious concern.

Sfc low over just north of KEQA in se KS as of 18z will progress
east with a trailing dry line/sfc trough moving into the eastern
cwfa by 21z. Cap in place now, but a combo of daytime warming,
mid level cooling with increased lift and a narrow corridor of
low level moisture advection is expected to weaken the cap over
the next couple of hours allowing sfc convergence near the
boundary to initiate storms. Latest high res guidance (HRRR, among
others) have been consistent with developing convection by 21z-22z
close to the se KS/sw Mo state line. While model dew points may be
a bit bullish, still looks like a good bet with a corridor/broken
line of convection moving quickly w-e through the cwfa late this
afternoon and early this evening.

ML CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg indicated by the HRRR in a
narrow corridor along the sfc trough coupled with more than
adequate deep level 0-6 km bulk shear of around 40-50 kts and 0-3
km helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will allow rotating updrafts to
develop with stronger convection. With somewhat limited low level
moisture/higher cloud bases, the main storm hazard will be hail
given steep mid level lapse rates. Localized severe winds also a
possibility. The tornado risk would appear low (but not zero),
again given the lack of deeper low level moisture and a veered low
level sfc wind profile along the sfc trough.

The severe window should be small time-wise. Storms should quickly
move east through the cwfa this evening, weakening late with more
limited instability.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

A second shortwave, more positively tilted,  will make it's way
through the region Wed with a cold frontal passage expected.
Weather hazards may include some severe wx and a risk of excessive
rainfall over the southeast half of the cwfa.

Storms are expected to re-initiate in the afternoon gradually
coalescing into line segments, potentially training, over parts of
southern mo late in the afternoon and evening. Again the main
storm concerns will be during the initialization phase with hail
and winds with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg over far southern
MO with abundant deep layer shear. With the potential for training
storms in the evening, some guidance is hitting rainfall amounts
hard (particularly the 12z ECMWF, NAM, GFS) in south central MO
where recent heavy rain and flooding occurred. Will be looking at
a possible flood watch for portions of the area, but still
ironing out the details.

Unseasonable cold is expected late in the week as a deep upper
level trough develops over much of the eastern CONUS. Nighttime
temperatures will drop below freezing late in the week. Small
scale shortwaves moving se through the region may kick off some
light/brief periods of rain/snow at times. A modest warming trend
develops late in the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

Pilots flying in and out of
the southwest Missouri airports need to monitor radar closely late
this afternoon and this evening.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Kansas and
the Missouri state line, and move east through much of southern
and central Missouri.

Large hail appears to be the main severe weather risk with these
storms.

By 8 or 9pm, this activity will shift east of the southwest
Missouri airports, allowing for VFR conditions the rest of the
night.

Look for surface winds to become light and variable by mid
evening.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Cramer
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 24, 10:53 AM CDT, 4 hours before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 24, 4:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFVernon45 min
Mar 24, 4:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarton, Vernon49 min
Mar 24, 4:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarton, Vernon47 min
Mar 24, 4:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFJasper48 min
Mar 24, 4:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCedar, Dade54 min
Mar 24, 4:56 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFSt. Clair49 min
Mar 24, 4:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFNewton33 min
Mar 24, 5:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton30 min
Mar 24, 5:07 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFHickory38 min
Mar 24, 5:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Lawrence52 min
Mar 24, 5:24 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementSGFPolk36 min
Mar 24, 5:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFLawrence21 min
Mar 24, 5:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFPolk30 min
Mar 24, 5:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDade, Greene54 min
Mar 24, 5:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian, Stone, Taney61 min
Mar 24, 5:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDallas, Webster25 min
Mar 24, 5:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFPolk35 min
Mar 24, 6:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDallas30 min
Mar 24, 6:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Stone, Taney60 min
Mar 24, 6:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFWebster41 min
Mar 24, 6:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFLaclede44 min
Mar 24, 6:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFTaney31 min
Mar 24, 6:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFWright27 min
Mar 24, 6:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFWebster, Wright39 min
Mar 24, 6:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Ozark, Taney40 min

Nearby

Flood Watches in Missouri, 2015Every flood watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.