Alert archive / Missouri / Flood Watches in 2015
Flood Watch 2, NWS Springfield, MO
NWS Springfield, MO issued this flood watch at Mar 24, 2015, 2:53 PM CDT for 20 counties in Missouri. It took effect at Mar 25, 2015, 4:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 11 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 24, 2015, 2:53 PM CDT (19:53 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 25, 2015, 4:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Mar 26, 2015, 3:26 AM CDT
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Springfield, MO
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -269 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1309 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 61 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 95 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 141 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Mar 24, 2:23 PM CDT, 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 24, 2:23 PM CDT, 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 223 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 141 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 In the near term severe weather chances are the obvious concern. Sfc low over just north of KEQA in se KS as of 18z will progress east with a trailing dry line/sfc trough moving into the eastern cwfa by 21z. Cap in place now, but a combo of daytime warming, mid level cooling with increased lift and a narrow corridor of low level moisture advection is expected to weaken the cap over the next couple of hours allowing sfc convergence near the boundary to initiate storms. Latest high res guidance (HRRR, among others) have been consistent with developing convection by 21z-22z close to the se KS/sw Mo state line. While model dew points may be a bit bullish, still looks like a good bet with a corridor/broken line of convection moving quickly w-e through the cwfa late this afternoon and early this evening. ML CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg indicated by the HRRR in a narrow corridor along the sfc trough coupled with more than adequate deep level 0-6 km bulk shear of around 40-50 kts and 0-3 km helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 will allow rotating updrafts to develop with stronger convection. With somewhat limited low level moisture/higher cloud bases, the main storm hazard will be hail given steep mid level lapse rates. Localized severe winds also a possibility. The tornado risk would appear low (but not zero), again given the lack of deeper low level moisture and a veered low level sfc wind profile along the sfc trough. The severe window should be small time-wise. Storms should quickly move east through the cwfa this evening, weakening late with more limited instability. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 A second shortwave, more positively tilted, will make it's way through the region Wed with a cold frontal passage expected. Weather hazards may include some severe wx and a risk of excessive rainfall over the southeast half of the cwfa. Storms are expected to re-initiate in the afternoon gradually coalescing into line segments, potentially training, over parts of southern mo late in the afternoon and evening. Again the main storm concerns will be during the initialization phase with hail and winds with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg over far southern MO with abundant deep layer shear. With the potential for training storms in the evening, some guidance is hitting rainfall amounts hard (particularly the 12z ECMWF, NAM, GFS) in south central MO where recent heavy rain and flooding occurred. Will be looking at a possible flood watch for portions of the area, but still ironing out the details. Unseasonable cold is expected late in the week as a deep upper level trough develops over much of the eastern CONUS. Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing late in the week. Small scale shortwaves moving se through the region may kick off some light/brief periods of rain/snow at times. A modest warming trend develops late in the extended period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 121 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports need to monitor radar closely late this afternoon and this evening. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the Kansas and the Missouri state line, and move east through much of southern and central Missouri. Large hail appears to be the main severe weather risk with these storms. By 8 or 9pm, this activity will shift east of the southwest Missouri airports, allowing for VFR conditions the rest of the night. Look for surface winds to become light and variable by mid evening. Safe Travels. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Cramer
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 24, 10:53 AM CDT, 4 hours before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 4:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Vernon | 45 min |
| Mar 24, 4:11 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barton, Vernon | 49 min |
| Mar 24, 4:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barton, Vernon | 47 min |
| Mar 24, 4:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Jasper | 48 min |
| Mar 24, 4:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Cedar, Dade | 54 min |
| Mar 24, 4:56 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | St. Clair | 49 min |
| Mar 24, 4:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Newton | 33 min |
| Mar 24, 5:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | McDonald, Newton | 30 min |
| Mar 24, 5:07 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Hickory | 38 min |
| Mar 24, 5:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barry, Lawrence | 52 min |
| Mar 24, 5:24 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SGF | Polk | 36 min |
| Mar 24, 5:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Lawrence | 21 min |
| Mar 24, 5:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Polk | 30 min |
| Mar 24, 5:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dade, Greene | 54 min |
| Mar 24, 5:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Christian, Stone, Taney | 61 min |
| Mar 24, 5:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dallas, Webster | 25 min |
| Mar 24, 5:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Polk | 35 min |
| Mar 24, 6:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dallas | 30 min |
| Mar 24, 6:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barry, Stone, Taney | 60 min |
| Mar 24, 6:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Webster | 41 min |
| Mar 24, 6:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Laclede | 44 min |
| Mar 24, 6:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Taney | 31 min |
| Mar 24, 6:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Wright | 27 min |
| Mar 24, 6:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Webster, Wright | 39 min |
| Mar 24, 6:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Douglas, Ozark, Taney | 40 min |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.