Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Springfield, MO

197 
WWUS53 KSGF 212326
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOC059-167-212336-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-150421T2345Z/
POLK MO-DALLAS MO-
626 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS !MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3730 9335 3738 9331 3747 9274 3721 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 284DEG 36KT 3732 9320

$$

MOC077-225-212345-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-150421T2345Z/
GREENE MO-WEBSTER MO-
626 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
WEBSTER AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 624 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF FAIR GROVE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BASSVILLE...EBENEZER...FAIR GROVE...GLIDEWELL...MARSHFIELD...
NIANGUA...NORTHVIEW AND STRAFFORD.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 85 AND 105 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9335 3738 9331 3747 9274 3721 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 284DEG 36KT 3732 9320

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

664 
WWUS53 KSGF 212343
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOC077-225-212353-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-150421T2345Z/
GREENE MO-WEBSTER MO-
643 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WEBSTER AND
NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH 
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3730 9335 3738 9331 3747 9274 3721 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 284DEG 36KT 3728 9299

$$

GRIFFIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
511 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

...Updated Mesoscale Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 511 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

As expected, scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a
southeastward moving shortwave trough. Deep layer shear (0-6km) is
around 40-45kt with mixed layer CAPE around 500 J/kg and most
unstable CAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Convective mode
has been mainly multicells with occasional supercellular
structures. These high based storms have been good hail producers,
with reports generally in the pea to nickel size range. We have
received a few quarter size hail reports, and these have been with
cells exhibiting supercell characteristics.

Persistence will be the rule for the next two hours. Intensity of
the storms will continue to wax and wane. Pea to nickel sized hail
along with frequent cloud to ground lightning will be the main
risks with these storms. After sunset, CAPE will gradually
decrease and the shortwave will continue to move southeast. Better
storm chances will spread to the southeast, with a brief break in
the action possible late this evening before additional scattered
showers and a few storms develop along a cold front that will
arrive from the northwest overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

Gusty west to southwesterly winds will continue through the reminder
of the afternoon hours...but will gradually weaken into this
evening.

Scattered thunderstorms are starting to develop across portions of
west central MO into the eastern Ozarks. These storms are developing
as lift from an upper level low over the great lakes region
interacts will weak instability that is developing with day time
heating and low level moisture advection.  The upper level low is
spreading increased wind shear and colder temperatures in the mid
levels. So, it won't take much of an updraft to get a small hail out
of storms. Instability will remain on the weak side and wide spread
severe weather is not expected, but a few of the stronger storms
could produce hail up to the size of quarters and winds over 50 mph.
These storms will generally occur along and northeast of a Lamar to
Springfield to West Plains MO line and will push southeast of the
area this evening.

Later this evening into tonight additional isolated to scattered
storms will be possible as a cold front sags south through the area.
Instability will remain on the weak side with small hail and cloud to
ground lightning strikes being the main risk with these storms.

On Wednesday 500mb low lifts northeast of Lake Superior but
cyclonic flow continues over Missouri. At the surface high pressure
noses southward into northern Missouri while residual boundary slips
south into Arkansas. This will keep the area with below normal
temperatures with highs only in the 50s and 60s. Models consistent
in weak isentropic lift north of the boundary into southern Missouri
at least early on Wednesday with enough lift for some
showers/storms, especially over far southern Missouri. Best
instabilities remain south of the forecast area with only 300 j/kg
of most unstable cape early in the day along the Arkansas border.
Tapered probabilities from north to south. There could be some
showers across far southern Missouri Wednesday night, otherwise dry
conditions will be seen.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

Shortwave ridging builds across the area Thursday suppressing any
showers to the south near the Arkansas border during the morning
hours. The next shortwave will lift out of the desert southwest
into the central/southern plains Friday and across Missouri on
Saturday. Although there are some model differences with respect
to the track of the surface low, the Friday time frame looks to be
the best chances for showers and storms, with Saturday more
showery as system begins to pull east of the area. Weak high
pressure will move in Saturday night and into Sunday giving
everyone a break from the rainy weather. However, next shortwave
will drop across the plains around another deep 500mb low over the
Great Lakes. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast
for late Sunday into Sunday night and then pushes east Monday.
Some low probability rain chances on Monday and Tuesday with hard
time shortwave energy in fast flow aloft.

Temperatures look to remain on the cool side through much of the
period with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. At this point it
looks like there is minimal frost potentials.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Gusty southwesterly winds will
continue to occur this afternoon relaxing later this evening.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop across west central and
central Missouri early this afternoon and spread southeast. This
activity may clip the KSGF TAF site later this after but is expected
to remain east and north of the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites at times.

Low level wind shear will be possible this evening into the
overnight but should start to decrease after a cold frontal
passage later tonight.

Additional scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the front
as is slowly sags south through the area overnight. Winds will
swing around to the north behind the frontal passage.

VFR conditions will occur through much of the TAF period, with
flight conditions being reduce briefly in any thunderstorms that
are able to affect a TAF site.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Raberding/Wise
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
222 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT
  TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
  EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LAMAR TO SPRINGFIELD
  TO WEST PLAINS MISSOURI LINE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
  AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS. MOST
  STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW OF THE
  STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS AND
  LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

  LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS
  SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
  MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORM...THOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WITH A FEW STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
  POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
  SATURDAY. THERE WILL THEN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOZ082-212230-
TEXAS MO-
454 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 453 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLATO...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BUCYRUS...HAZELTON...PLATO...PRESCOTT...
ROBY AND SUCCESS.

LAT...LON 3732 9190 3739 9225 3754 9225 3756 9225
      3756 9224 3752 9187
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 280DEG 34KT 3748 9225

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOZ068-069-080-212245-
CAMDEN MO-HICKORY MO-DALLAS MO-
500 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DALLAS...NORTHERN
HICKORY AND WEST CENTRAL CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CROSS TIMBERS...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HERMITAGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3806 9329 3807 9308 3805 9283 3790 9285
      3789 9286 3782 9286 3795 9347 3807 9343
      3807 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 275DEG 28KT 3800 9321

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOZ079-080-212245-
POLK MO-DALLAS MO-
502 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL POLK AND SOUTHERN DALLAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 501 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH. DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...FOOSE...HALF WAY AND
MARCH.

LAT...LON 3764 9296 3748 9308 3761 9357 3774 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 290DEG 29KT 3765 9346

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
511 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOZ069-070-081-212300-
CAMDEN MO-LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
511 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LACLEDE...
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

AT 508 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CAMDENTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CAMDENTON...CROCKER...DECATURVILLE...
FREEDOM...LINN CREEK...MONTREAL...OLD LINN CREEK...OZARK SPRINGS...
RICHLAND...SWEDEBORG AND WET GLAIZE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE HA HA
TONKA STATE PARK...LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE PARK AND LAKE OF THE
OZARKS. INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 150 AND 154 WILL ALSO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3805 9253 3802 9251 3802 9220 3779 9225
      3788 9286 3808 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 280DEG 34KT 3800 9274

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
530 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOZ080-081-091-092-212315-
LACLEDE MO-WEBSTER MO-WRIGHT MO-DALLAS MO-
530 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER...
NORTHWESTERN WRIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND SOUTHERN LACLEDE
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 528 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF LONG LANE...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE COMPETITION...CONWAY...GROVESPRING...LONG
LANE...MORGAN...PHILLIPSBURG...RADER AND TWIN BRIDGES.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 104 AND 120 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3756 9234 3731 9238 3746 9303 3764 9297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 285DEG 35KT 3752 9290

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOZ079-080-090-212345-
GREENE MO-POLK MO-DALLAS MO-
600 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GREENE...SOUTHERN POLK
AND SOUTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALNUT GROVE...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BOLIVAR...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BASSVILLE...BRIGHTON...CAVE SPRINGS...
EBENEZER...EUDORA...FAIR GROVE...MORRISVILLE...OLIVE...PLEASANT
HOPE...SACVILLE AND WALNUT GROVE.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 86 AND 90 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3736 9359 3750 9359 3748 9307 3728 9308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 284DEG 36KT 3743 9349

GRIFFIN