Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

Gusty west to southwesterly winds will continue through the reminder
of the afternoon hours...but will gradually weaken into this
evening.

Scattered thunderstorms are starting to develop across portions of
west central MO into the eastern Ozarks. These storms are developing
as lift from an upper level low over the great lakes region
interacts will weak instability that is developing with day time
heating and low level moisture advection.  The upper level low is
spreading increased wind shear and colder temperatures in the mid
levels. So, it won't take much of an updraft to get a small hail out
of storms. Instability will remain on the weak side and wide spread
severe weather is not expected, but a few of the stronger storms
could produce hail up to the size of quarters and winds over 50 mph.
These storms will generally occur along and northeast of a Lamar to
Springfield to West Plains MO line and will push southeast of the
area this evening.

Later this evening into tonight additional isolated to scattered
storms will be possible as a cold front sags south through the area.
Instability will remain on the weak side with small hail and cloud to
ground lightning strikes being the main risk with these storms.

On Wednesday 500mb low lifts northeast of Lake Superior but
cyclonic flow continues over Missouri. At the surface high pressure
noses southward into northern Missouri while residual boundary slips
south into Arkansas. This will keep the area with below normal
temperatures with highs only in the 50s and 60s. Models consistent
in weak isentropic lift north of the boundary into southern Missouri
at least early on Wednesday with enough lift for some
showers/storms, especially over far southern Missouri. Best
instabilities remain south of the forecast area with only 300 j/kg
of most unstable cape early in the day along the Arkansas border.
Tapered probabilities from north to south. There could be some
showers across far southern Missouri Wednesday night, otherwise dry
conditions will be seen.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

Shortwave ridging builds across the area Thursday suppressing any
showers to the south near the Arkansas border during the morning
hours. The next shortwave will lift out of the desert southwest
into the central/southern plains Friday and across Missouri on
Saturday. Although there are some model differences with respect
to the track of the surface low, the Friday time frame looks to be
the best chances for showers and storms, with Saturday more
showery as system begins to pull east of the area. Weak high
pressure will move in Saturday night and into Sunday giving
everyone a break from the rainy weather. However, next shortwave
will drop across the plains around another deep 500mb low over the
Great Lakes. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast
for late Sunday into Sunday night and then pushes east Monday.
Some low probability rain chances on Monday and Tuesday with hard
time shortwave energy in fast flow aloft.

Temperatures look to remain on the cool side through much of the
period with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. At this point it
looks like there is minimal frost potentials.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Gusty southwesterly winds will
continue to occur this afternoon relaxing later this evening.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop across west central and
central Missouri early this afternoon and spread southeast. This
activity may clip the KSGF TAF site later this after but is expected
to remain east and north of the KJLN and KBBG TAF sites at times.

Low level wind shear will be possible this evening into the
overnight but should start to decrease after a cold frontal
passage later tonight.

Additional scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the front
as is slowly sags south through the area overnight. Winds will
swing around to the north behind the frontal passage.

VFR conditions will occur through much of the TAF period, with
flight conditions being reduce briefly in any thunderstorms that
are able to affect a TAF site.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Wise
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-221930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
222 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE AT
  TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
  EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A LAMAR TO SPRINGFIELD
  TO WEST PLAINS MISSOURI LINE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
  AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS. MOST
  STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW OF THE
  STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS AND
  LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

  LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS
  SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
  MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORM...THOUGH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WITH A FEW STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
  POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI...HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.

  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
  SATURDAY. THERE WILL THEN BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOZ078-079-212045-
CEDAR MO-POLK MO-
254 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CEDAR AND NORTHERN
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DUNNEGAN...OR 10 MILES EAST OF STOCKTON...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DUNNEGAN...FLEMINGTON...GOODSON...HALF
WAY...HUMANSVILLE AND POLK.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE POMME DE
TERRE LAKE.

LAT...LON 3779 9319 3773 9319 3773 9318 3758 9318
      3767 9370 3783 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 280DEG 31KT 3773 9359

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
304 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     HAIL             2 NNE DUNNEGAN          37.73N 93.56W
04/21/2015  E0.50 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE REPORTED.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             2 W POLK                37.73N 93.34W
04/21/2015  E0.88 INCH       POLK               MO   PUBLIC

&&

RFRYE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 37.64N 93.09W
04/21/2015  E1.00 INCH       DALLAS             MO   POST OFFICE

            BUFFALO USPS REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

RFRYE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MOZ080-081-212115-
LACLEDE MO-DALLAS MO-
347 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL DALLAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LACLEDE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF LONG LANE...OR 5 MILES EAST OF
BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LEBANON...LONG LANE...MORGAN...
PHILLIPSBURG AND WINDYVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE BENNETT
SPRING STATE PARK. INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 129
WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3770 9259 3749 9264 3756 9304 3773 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 279DEG 35KT 3763 9298

GRIFFIN