Wind Advisory 12, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV

697 
WWUS71 KRNK 280305
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1105 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...TREES MAY BE UPROOTED BY GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE 30 TO 45 MPH...THE FACT THAT LEAVES ARE ON THE TREES...AND THE
SOIL AROUND THE ROOTS IS RELATIVELY WET FROM RECENT SHOWERS...THIS
MAY ALLOW TREES TO BE MORE EASILY BLOWN DOWN. WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS WILL START TO DECREASE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
281115-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0012.150628T0800Z-150628T2000Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...
TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...
PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...
HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1105 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA ALONG AND WEST OF THE 
  CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE CONCERN OF THIS WIND ADVISORY IS FOR IMPACT OF GUSTY WINDS
MORE EASILY DOWNING TREES WITH ROOT SYSTEMS IN WET SOILS. GUSTS
OF ONLY 30 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...RATHER THAN THE TYPICAL 46 TO
57 MPH. FALLING TREES WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF FALLING ON
POWER LINES AND CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. UNFASTENED ITEMS
SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED INDOORS.

&&

$$

11

799 
WWUS71 KRNK 281029
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
629 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

.STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 30 TO 45 MPH...THE FACT
THAT LEAVES ARE ON THE TREES...AND THE SOIL AROUND THE ROOTS IS
RELATIVELY WET FROM RECENT SHOWERS... THIS MAY ALLOW TREES TO BE
MORE EASILY BLOWN DOWN. 

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
282000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150628T2000Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...
TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...
PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...
HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
629 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA ALONG AND WEST OF THE 
  CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE CONCERN OF THIS WIND ADVISORY IS FOR IMPACT OF GUSTY WINDS
MORE EASILY DOWNING TREES WITH ROOT SYSTEMS IN WET SOILS. GUSTS
OF ONLY 30 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...RATHER THAN THE TYPICAL 46 TO
57 MPH. FALLING TREES WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF FALLING ON
POWER LINES AND CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. UNFASTENED ITEMS
SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE SECURED OR MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

642 
WWUS71 KRNK 281353
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

.STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 30 TO 45 MPH...THE FACT
THAT LEAVES ARE ON THE TREES...AND THE SOIL AROUND THE ROOTS IS
RELATIVELY WET FROM RECENT SHOWERS...THIS MAY ALLOW TREES TO BE
MORE EASILY BLOWN DOWN.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
282000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150628T2000Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...
TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...
PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...
HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
953 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA ALONG AND WEST OF THE 
  CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE CONCERN OF THIS WIND ADVISORY IS FOR IMPACT OF GUSTY WINDS
MORE EASILY DOWNING TREES WITH ROOT SYSTEMS IN WET SOILS. GUSTS
OF ONLY 30 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...RATHER THAN THE TYPICAL 46 TO
57 MPH. FALLING TREES WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF FALLING ON
POWER LINES AND CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. UNFASTENED ITEMS
SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE SECURED OR
MOVED INDOORS.

&&

$$
RCS

522 
WWUS71 KRNK 281844
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
244 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015


NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
281945-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150628T2000Z/
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...
TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...
PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...
HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
244 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.

BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SINCE WINDS ARE SUBSIDING...THE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$
RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND CROSS THROUGH
AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE RETURN TO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM EASTERN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ITS PARENT LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW. THE COMPLEX FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND STABILITY THAT PROLONGED THE INITIATION OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...THE TREND TOWARDS MORE
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPIRE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EYEING THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUR CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM. GIVEN HOW THE
AREA IS TRANSITIONING TO CONVECTIVE BASED PRECIPITATION...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...ANY FLASH FLOODING AT THIS POINT AN
ONWARD WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SLOW MOVING...OR TRAINING...THUNDERSTORM
OR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS THE SAME AREA AS THE
WATCH...BASED UPON THE LOWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL EXPERIENCE A CHANGE TO A
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNTS
OF SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO A
WINTERTIME SCENARIO WITH UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING...AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A 850 MB WIND SOLUTION AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS
ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS WESTWARD AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS MAY TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE
TREES...AND AT LEAST A WET...IF NOT SATURATED IN SOME
LOCATIONS...SOIL MOISTURES...GUSTS OF THESE SPEEDS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF DOWNING TREES THAT OTHERWISE MAY NOT BE MORE PRONE TO
FALLING. GIVEN THIS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...RATHER THAN THE WIND ADVISORY GUSTS THAT WE
TYPICALLY ARE EXPECTING WHEN ONE IS ISSUED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUED TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHTER WINDS
SPEEDS...AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO
RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN
FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE MOIST AND PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CIGS RANGE FROM HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR...AND THAT TREND ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON  MAY CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND START TO INCREASE. ANTICIPATE A WINTER-LIKE
UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING CIGS INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT REALIZE
THE SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND ANTICIPATE LESS
CLOUD COVER.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS THE LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE
NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THIS EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS NOW OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ001-VAZ007-009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
280815-
ASHE-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ003-004-019-020-VAZ032-033-280815-
SURRY-STOKES-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH HAIL. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ005-006-VAZ043>047-058-059-280815-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ002-018-VAZ016-017-280815-
ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-CARROLL-FLOYD-
403 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
129 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAZ019-020-WVZ507-271815-
ALLEGHANY-BATH-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
129 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
BATH...NORTHERN CITY OF COVINGTON...NORTHWESTERN ALLEGHANY AND EAST
CENTRAL GREENBRIER COUNTIES...

AT 128 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER CALLAGHAN...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COVINGTON...
CLIFTON FORGE...
NATURAL WELL...
CALLAGHAN...
AND CARLOOVER.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3774 8015 3787 8024 3806 7996 3784 7981
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 252DEG 22KT 3782 8011

CF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAZ045>047-058-059-271845-
BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-HALIFAX-APPOMATTOX-CAMPBELL-
143 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HALIFAX...
APPOMATTOX...CHARLOTTE...BUCKINGHAM...AND EASTERN CAMPBELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 139 PM EDT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INDICATED COUNTIES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH...PEA-SIZED HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUCKINGHAM...
SOUTH BOSTON...
APPOMATTOX...
HALIFAX...
AND BROOKNEAL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

ANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3764 7825 3734 7846 3740 7859 3726 7868
      3719 7868 3708 7844 3689 7849 3670 7865
      3664 7856 3669 7868 3656 7873 3688 7914
      3709 7912 3743 7904 3754 7882 3763 7882
      3764 7872 3775 7862 3780 7849 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 356DEG 98KT 3740 7871

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
148 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAZ020-WVZ507-271845-
BATH-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
148 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
BATH COUNTY...

AT 145 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ALLEGHANY COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA
SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN BATH COUNTY HAS RECEIVED WELL IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BATH COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM EDT.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE RUNOFF AND RENEW THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND
POTENTIALLY FLASH FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR THE NEED FOR A NEW FLOOD AND...OR FLASH FLOOD WARNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS...
MILLBORO...
WARM SPRINGS...
YOST...
AND NIMROD HALL.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3822 7971 3820 7956 3818 7951 3815 7953
      3817 7949 3816 7944 3810 7949 3803 7951
      3784 7969 3788 7975 3789 7989 3795 7993
      3795 8002 3800 8008 3806 8002 3807 7996
      3810 7993 3813 7995 3818 7992 3827 7980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 238DEG 31KT 3801 7998

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ019-271915-
WILKES-
231 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WILKES COUNTY...

AT 230 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WILKESBORO
RESERVOIR...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH WILKESBORO...
WILKESBORO...
RONDA...
BOOMER...
AND MILLERS CREEK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE
A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3602 8135 3604 8140 3607 8141 3607 8144
      3620 8145 3627 8089 3606 8090 3606 8098
      3603 8107 3604 8114 3604 8120 3603 8127
      3600 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 269DEG 21KT 3610 8135

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NNE BOOMER            36.14N 81.20W
06/27/2015  M1.50 INCH       WILKES             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A 35 MINUTE
            PERIOD JUST OUTSIDE OF WILKESBORO, NC NEAR THE W KERR
            SCOTT DAM AND RESEVOIR.

&&

JMORROW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ003-019-020-272015-
WILKES-YADKIN-SURRY-
311 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SURRY...YADKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EXTENDED FROM NEAR WILKES
COUNTY AIRPORT TO NEAR MORAVIAN FALLS...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTH WILKESBORO...
ELKIN...
WILKESBORO...
YADKINVILLE...
AND JONESVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3604 8120 3624 8109 3631 8045 3624 8045
      3622 8043 3621 8045 3614 8044 3612 8046
      3611 8051 3605 8050 3606 8098 3603 8107
      3604 8114
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 269DEG 24KT 3618 8106 3604 8113

MBS