Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Blacksburg, VA

794 
WGUS71 KRNK 270540
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
140 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WVC025-271100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150627T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENBRIER WV-
140 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR 
GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 130 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
ALREADY FALLEN ALONG ANTHONY CREEK IN THE EASTERN PART OF GREENBRIER 
COUNTY BETWEEN ANTHONY AND NEOLA. STREAMS THAT FEED INTO ANTHONY 
CREEK...SUCH AS WILEY RUN...ALONG HIGHWAY 92 NEAR ALVON...WILL 
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.
 
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY 
NEAR RAINELLE. FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS 
PART OF THE COUNTY.  IN ADDITION...URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN 
LEWISBURG AS THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTY.  STREET 
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

 PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8036 3811 8036 3805 8026 3806 7996
      3769 8029 3769 8038 3772 8040 3769 8046
      3773 8066 3787 8080 3787 8075 3795 8081
      3799 8077 3804 8083 3806 8080 3808 8089
      3808 8071 3827 8044

$$

11

734 
WGUS71 KRNK 270637
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WVC025-271100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150627T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENBRIER WV-
237 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR 
GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 230 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN TWO AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...AND BETWEEN 1 AND 
2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN 
PART OF THE COUNTY BETWEEN ANTHONY AND ALVON...EAST OF LEWISBURG... 
WITHIN THE ANTHONY CREEK DRAINAGE.  UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR 
ALVON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. STREAMS WHICH FEED INTO 
ANTHONY CREEK...SUCH AS WILEY RUN...WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.

IF TRAVELING BE PREPARED FOR PONDING OF WATER AND DEBRIS ON THE 
HIGHWAY. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8036 3811 8036 3805 8026 3806 7996
      3769 8029 3769 8038 3772 8040 3769 8046
      3773 8066 3787 8080 3787 8075 3795 8081
      3799 8077 3804 8083 3806 8080 3808 8089
      3808 8071 3827 8044

$$

11

495 
WGUS71 KRNK 270742
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WVC025-271100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150627T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENBRIER WV-
342 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR 
GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 340 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. BETWEEN TWO 
AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN EASTERN GREENBRIER 
COUNTY...AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE 
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN 
PART OF THE COUNTY BETWEEN ANTHONY AND ALVON...EAST OF LEWISBURG... 
WITHIN THE ANTHONY CREEK DRAINAGE.  UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR 
ALVON WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. STREAMS WHICH FEED INTO 
ANTHONY CREEK...SUCH AS WILEY RUN...WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.

IF TRAVELING BE PREPARED FOR PONDING OF WATER AND DEBRIS ON THE 
HIGHWAY.  


 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8036 3811 8036 3805 8026 3806 7996
      3769 8029 3769 8038 3772 8040 3769 8046
      3773 8066 3787 8080 3787 8075 3795 8081
      3799 8077 3804 8083 3806 8080 3808 8089
      3808 8071 3827 8044

$$

KK

857 
WGUS71 KRNK 270902
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
502 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WVC025-271100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-150627T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENBRIER WV-
502 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR 
GREENBRIER COUNTY...

AT 451 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE 
WARNED AREA. 
 
BETWEEN TWO AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN EASTERN 
GREENBRIER COUNTY...AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN 
THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

THE 911 CALL CENTER REPORTED THAT ANTHONY CREEK FLOODED ROUTE 92 AND 
FLOODING ALONG STONEHOUSE ROAD NEAR CAMP ALLEGHANY BY EMANUEL RUN 
CREEK. 

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN 
PART OF THE COUNTY BETWEEN ANTHONY AND ALVON...EAST OF LEWISBURG... 
WITHIN THE ANTHONY CREEK DRAINAGE.  UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAD 
FALLEN NEAR ALVON...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. STREAMS WHICH FEED 
INTO ANTHONY CREEK...SUCH AS WILEY RUN...WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH 
FLOODING.

IF TRAVELING BE PREPARED FOR PONDING OF WATER AND DEBRIS ON THE 
HIGHWAY.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8036 3811 8036 3805 8026 3806 7996
      3769 8029 3769 8038 3772 8040 3769 8046
      3773 8066 3787 8080 3787 8075 3795 8081
      3799 8077 3804 8083 3806 8080 3808 8089
      3808 8071 3827 8044

$$

KK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1256 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...TRIGGERING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT SATURDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP SEVERE WATCH 363 WHICH INCLUDED SMYTH AND
TAZEWELL COUNTIES. APPEARS DEEPER CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT PERSISTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL PROVIDE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IS
EXPECTED AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND CONCENTRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION,
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW, AND LINGERING INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SPECIAL DISCUSSION FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...

SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK WAVE ACROSS NORTHWEST SC WHICH
HAS BEGUN INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN THE TERRAIN TO ITS NORTH
PER RECENT FCX VAD WIND PROFILES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1.3-1.5" PER GPS INFORMATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA, WITH HIGHER
VALUES ACROSS WV. IN ADDITION, CONVECTION FROM NORTHEAST TN,
EASTERN KY, AND NORTHWEST NC IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT ~20 KTS,
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.
UPSTREAM MUCAPES (USING 850 HPA WINDS) ARE 1000-2000 J/KG, WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CONSIDERING MOISTENING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND FOR NEW ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST UP THE TERRAIN AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH AS THE SURFACE/850 HPA MOVES NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE AS INITIAL CELLS
PROPAGATE EASTWARD AT 20 KTS AWAY FROM THE TERRAIN.  RAP FORECASTS
INDICATE MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE MUCAPES ACROSS NC AND SOUTHERN VA
OVERNIGHT.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF 2-4" WITHIN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE NEAR THIS AREA.  THE
PERFORMANCE OF THE MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE APPEARS SUB-PAR PER
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY.  THE 12Z ARW AND RECENT RAP/HRRR RUNS SEEM
TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES THE BEST.

END OF SPECIAL DISCUSSION.

FOR SATURDAY...FRONT OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT SATURDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THREAT FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PUSHES A BKN-SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN...
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER WEST AND NORTH WITH THE
BRUNT OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...KEEPING IT MORE
CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS OUR AREA...BELIEVE
WE WILL NOT SEE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO SUPPORT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...WITH INCREASING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM CELLS TO BECOME ANCHORED
NEAR CREST OF BLUE RIDGE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE GREATEST.
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT GREAT ENOUGH ATTM TO PINPOINT EXACT
LOCATION WHERE THE ANCHORING WILL OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE BIG STORY DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
WINTERISH GRADIENT WINDS WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE
PARENT UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN TO NEAR ERIE PA. THE 850 MB FLOW AROUND
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PEAK IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY. MOST AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT TROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY SUNDAY WILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS EXPERIENCING GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO TWO MAIN
AREAS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA COINCIDENT TO AND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY LINGER UNTIL 200 AM TO 500 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS SLACKEN.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL FALL TO READINGS WITHIN FIVE DEGREES
OF RECORD LOWS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR
DETAILS.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT
A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES. WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY. ANTICIPATE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
START PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
STILL LITTLE OR NO COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE ONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY AND NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND TAKE ON A NW-SE
ORIENTATION. THROUGH FRIDAY...LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL
BE THE SOURCE OF THE FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY SHRA/TSRA AT TIMES IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PENDING EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS. THUS WILL INIT WITH OVERALL MVFR CONDITIONS
PER CURRENT OBS AND INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOWER VSBYS/CIGS
WHERE APPEARS STRONGER CELLS MAY CROSS THROUGH MORNING. SOUTH
WINDS ALSO GUSTY ACROSS THE WEST IN/NEAR CONVECTION AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE WILL SEE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THAT WILL SWING MORE TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.

PRIMARY CONCERN SATURDAY IS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH 40-50KT WESTERLY WINDS 3KFT AGL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATING BKN LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF WHEN BANDS MIGHT CROSS WILL LEAVE IN AN
OVERALL VICINITY MENTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER MORNING SHRA
EXIT FOR NOW.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS OPERATING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF/PM
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS/WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1248 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ001-002-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-280500-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
1248 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ018-280500-
WATAUGA-
1248 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT CONTINUES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY
FLOODING WILL BE LOCALIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL BANDS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-280500-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1248 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
WITH HAIL. PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1113 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>017-022-032-033-043-044-058-WVZ042-
270700-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
HALIFAX-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
DANBURY...EDEN...YANCEYVILLE...BOONE...WILKESBORO...YADKINVILLE...
TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...
PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...
VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...ROANOKE...SALEM...STUART...ROCKY MOUNT...
MARTINSVILLE...DANVILLE...SOUTH BOSTON...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
1113 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...AND PERIODS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE REGION TO THE NORTH AROUND 200 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING TONIGHT WHEN THE DANGERS OF
FLOODING ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE...AND NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

VAZ018>020-023-024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ043-044-507-508-270700-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...
COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...
BEDFORD...AMHERST...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...KEYSVILLE...HINTON...
HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1113 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND PERIODS OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE REGION TO THE NORTH
AROUND 400 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING TONIGHT WHEN THE DANGERS OF
FLOODING ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO SEE...AND NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1137 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VAZ011-013-014-WVZ044-270430-
MONTGOMERY-PULASKI-GILES-MONROE-
1137 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CITY OF RADFORD...PULASKI...GILES...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 1134 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING EXTENDED FROM
NEAR CHAPEL...TO NEAR DUBLIN...TO DRAPER...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSBURG...
RADFORD...
PULASKI...
PEARISBURG...
AND DUBLIN.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3743 8046 3742 8048 3732 8044 3716 8046
      3692 8078 3706 8081 3714 8088 3715 8086
      3717 8088 3718 8086 3719 8087 3718 8090
      3725 8097 3731 8092 3735 8085 3736 8087
      3762 8063
TIME...MOT...LOC 0334Z 223DEG 21KT 3726 8089 3712 8076 3698 8077

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1140 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

VAZ020-270430-
BATH-
1140 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BATH COUNTY...

AT 1139 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BURNSVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURNSVILLE...
AND YOST.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE
15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A
BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3822 7971 3820 7956 3818 7951 3817 7952
      3815 7953 3817 7949 3816 7944 3810 7949
      3808 7948 3805 7952 3820 7984 3826 7979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 296DEG 18KT 3821 7973

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1204 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1157 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW RICHLANDS         37.09N 81.81W
06/26/2015                   TAZEWELL           VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS TREE LIMBS LESS THAN AN INCH IN DIAMETER,
            A FEW SHINGLES, AND DIME SIZED HAIL FELL WITHIN ALONG
            HANKENS CIRCLE IN RICHLANDS VIRGINIA.

&&

JMORROW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1237 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAZ019-WVZ044-507-270530-
ALLEGHANY-EASTERN GREENBRIER-MONROE-
1237 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
ALLEGHANY...SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER AND NORTH CENTRAL MONROE
COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM EDT...

AT 1235 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR RONCEVERTE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS ALVON MOVING
NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEGHANY...
LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
RONCEVERTE...
AND NEOLA.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3800 7999 3795 8005 3794 8003 3796 8000
      3795 7995 3789 7990 3765 8055 3778 8066
      3783 8064 3786 8061 3804 8018 3804 8016
      3806 8011 3806 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 244DEG 14KT 3778 8052

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1244 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ003>006-VAZ014-016-017-032-033-043-044-270545-
ROCKINGHAM-SURRY-STOKES-CASWELL-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-HENRY-PATRICK-
PITTSYLVANIA-FRANKLIN-CARROLL-
1244 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
SURRY...NORTHWESTERN CASWELL...STOKES...ROCKINGHAM...
PATRICK...SOUTHERN PITTSYLVANIA...CITY OF DANVILLE...FRANKLIN...
FLOYD...HENRY...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...CITY OF MARTINSVILLE AND
EASTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 1242 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GLADESBORO TO NEAR INTELLIGENCE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...
CHRISTIANSBURG...
EDEN...
REIDSVILLE...
AND MARTINSVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY AND MARTINSVILLE AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3625 7993 3660 8084 3726 8030 3721 8019
      3711 8017 3716 8007 3677 7916 3671 7918
      3625 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 220DEG 35KT 3670 8062 3637 7983

KK