Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Blacksburg, VA

034 
WWUS51 KRNK 272150
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
550 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAC019-023-272215-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-150627T2215Z/
BOTETOURT VA-BEDFORD VA-
550 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT 
FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST BOTETOURT AND NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 549 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LITHIA...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEDFORD...
BUCHANAN...
PEAKS OF OTTER SUMMIT...
PEAKS OF OTTER RECREATION AREA...
AND ARCADIA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3753 7950 3733 7953 3745 7972 3752 7970
      3757 7957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 274DEG 8KT 3747 7975 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RAB

533 
WWUS51 KRNK 272205
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
605 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAC023-272214-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-150627T2215Z/
BOTETOURT VA-
605 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BOTETOURT COUNTY 
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED SOUTH 
INTO NORTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3733 7953 3745 7963 3745 7959 3747 7958
      3749 7956 3750 7956 3749 7954 3751 7953
      3752 7951 3753 7950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 274DEG 8KT 3747 7971 

$$

VAC019-272215-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-150627T2215Z/
BEDFORD VA-
605 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY...

AT 604 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEAKS OF 
OTTER RECREATION AREA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BEDFORD...
PEAKS OF OTTER SUMMIT...
AND PEAKS OF OTTER RECREATION AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 7953 3745 7963 3745 7959 3747 7958
      3749 7956 3750 7956 3749 7954 3751 7953
      3752 7951 3753 7950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 274DEG 8KT 3747 7971 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RAB

893 
WWUS51 KRNK 272215
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
615 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAC019-272224-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-150627T2215Z/
BEDFORD VA-
615 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY 
WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. BRIEF 
HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS 
AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3733 7953 3745 7963 3745 7959 3747 7958
      3749 7956 3750 7956 3749 7954 3751 7953
      3752 7951 3753 7950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 274DEG 8KT 3747 7971 

$$

RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND CROSS THROUGH
AND THEN EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER...AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
OUR CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIMES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WE RETURN TO A
MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE FORECAST EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM EASTERN OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
TENNESSEE. ITS PARENT LOW WAS POSITIONED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW. THE COMPLEX FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AND STABILITY THAT PROLONGED THE INITIATION OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTION. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...THE TREND TOWARDS MORE
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPIRE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS EYEING THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUR CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM. GIVEN HOW THE
AREA IS TRANSITIONING TO CONVECTIVE BASED PRECIPITATION...RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...ANY FLASH FLOODING AT THIS POINT AN
ONWARD WILL BE TRIGGERED BY SLOW MOVING...OR TRAINING...THUNDERSTORM
OR HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CONCERN IS THE SAME AREA AS THE
WATCH...BASED UPON THE LOWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFT NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL EXPERIENCE A CHANGE TO A
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNTS
OF SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE SUNDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO A
WINTERTIME SCENARIO WITH UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING...AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A 850 MB WIND SOLUTION AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS
ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS WESTWARD AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS MAY TRANSLATE TO SURFACE GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH WITH 25 TO 35 MPH MORE COMMON ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH LEAVES ON THE
TREES...AND AT LEAST A WET...IF NOT SATURATED IN SOME
LOCATIONS...SOIL MOISTURES...GUSTS OF THESE SPEEDS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF DOWNING TREES THAT OTHERWISE MAY NOT BE MORE PRONE TO
FALLING. GIVEN THIS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO STRESS THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...RATHER THAN THE WIND ADVISORY GUSTS THAT WE
TYPICALLY ARE EXPECTING WHEN ONE IS ISSUED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUED TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES...LIGHTER WINDS
SPEEDS...AND LESS CLOUD COVER.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FIVE TO TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
FOR A WHILE...AROUND 50 TO THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WHILE NO
RECORD LOWS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL GET WITHIN
FIVE DEGREES OF THEIR CORRESPONDING RECORDS. REVIEW THE CLIMATE
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...

BROAD TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND CONSIDERABLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW IN AN ALMOST WINTERLIKE
PATTERN THAT SETS UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE PATTERN IS
QUITE UNSETTLED WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CLEARLY FEW IF ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIODS DURING THE PERIOD WHERE
POPS CAN BE LEFT UNMENTIONABLE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE OF CONCERN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA. 850MB TEMPS BEING TO RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY IN THE DAY TO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE BY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
MEAGER...BUT ENOUGH CREEPING IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE DISTURBANCE TO WARRANT THE MENTION OF TSRA. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM AND MOISTURE IS JUST
BEGINNING TO RETURN IN EARNEST...SO HEAVY RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A
THREAT EITHER AT THAT POINT. MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND MORE SO ACROSS WV...LIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MD/PA BY EVENING.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY EAST. CONDITIONS APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
WEST AND 40 PERCENT RANGE EAST.

FOR A CHANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WITH TIME. A QUITE ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS DESTINED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT MOST HAVE IT OVER OR VERY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THUS...I PREFER TO TAKE THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND EXPECT
THE BOUNDARY TO LINGER MORE ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED
CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH THE BEST FOCUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE...A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED ONE AT THAT...APPEARS TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME WOULD BE
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS CREEP BACK CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW +20C COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS THE BROAD TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE WEST.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE IN OUR REGION SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE THE KDAN AREA...BELOW 90S DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE AREA REMAINS IN THE MOIST AND PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE AIR IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CIGS RANGE FROM HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR...AND THAT TREND ALONG WITH PROGRESSIVELY
INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON  MAY CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR WINDS
TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND START TO INCREASE. ANTICIPATE A WINTER-LIKE
UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING CIGS INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE
FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT REALIZE
THE SURFACE GUSTS UNTIL DAYBREAK MONDAY...AND ANTICIPATE LESS
CLOUD COVER.

ON MONDAY...EXPECT A GUSTY DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS 850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. ANY
DAYBREAK SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TO VFR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE EAST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING IN FROM THE NW MAY BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ESPCLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A SWATH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SPOTS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES OF RAIN. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY FROM ASHE COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS
WELL AS THE VIRGINIA HIGHLANDS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS THE LOWEST. RAINFALL OF 1 TO
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT HOUR AT TIMES. GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS ARE
NOW MORE PRIMED FOR FLOODING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THIS EXCLUDES PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL WAS NOT AS HEAVY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

JUNE 29TH RECORD LOWS

BLACKSBURG...42 IN 1974
BLUEFIELD....52 IN 1970
DANVILLE.....54 IN 1968
LEWISBURG....49 IN 1981
LYNCHBURG....51 IN 1970
ROANOKE......44 IN 1919

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS NOW OPERATING AT FULL CAPACITY.

THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN HINTON WV...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.425 MHZ...IS OFF THE AIR DUE TO A TELCO PROBLEM. THIRD
PARTY TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THE COMMUNICATION
ISSUE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-034-035.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-
     507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
CLIMATE...DS
EQUIPMENT...DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ001-VAZ007-009>015-018>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
282030-
ASHE-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWER AND STORM
FORMATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT WEATHER.GOV
OR OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032-033-043>047-058-059-282030-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ002-018-VAZ016-017-282030-
ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-CARROLL-FLOYD-
419 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND SMALL CREEK AND STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40 OR 45 MPH WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
435 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ001-018-272130-
WATAUGA-ASHE-
435 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ASHE AND WATAUGA
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 431 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING BETWEEN MEAT
CAMP AND SUGAR GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOONE...
DEEP GAP...
TODD...
SUGAR GROVE...
AND ASHLAND.

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.

LAT...LON 3634 8177 3634 8171 3635 8172 3638 8173
      3645 8170 3631 8136 3628 8137 3629 8141
      3628 8141 3626 8143 3626 8146 3624 8148
      3620 8146 3615 8150 3624 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 280DEG 30KT 3631 8170

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
447 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAZ012-015-016-272145-
WYTHE-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
447 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN
GRAYSON...SOUTHERN WYTHE...CITY OF GALAX...AND NORTHWESTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES...

AT 445 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR
FORT CHISWELL TO ELK CREEK...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY
RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WYTHEVILLE...
GALAX...
INDEPENDENCE...
FRIES...
AND PATTERSON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3700 8104 3692 8078 3688 8074 3689 8069
      3656 8098 3657 8108 3668 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 268DEG 24KT 3696 8098 3674 8119

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
505 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAZ023-272145-
BOTETOURT-
505 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BOTETOURT COUNTY...

AT 504 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER FINCASTLE...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUCHANAN...
TROUTVILLE...
FINCASTLE...
LITHIA...
AND SPRINGWOOD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3760 7957 3758 7958 3753 7950 3749 7954
      3749 7956 3745 7959 3745 7963 3748 7965
      3748 7968 3741 7979 3742 8001 3750 8002
      3756 7998 3763 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 265DEG 20KT 3750 7991

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
513 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ005-006-VAZ044-058-272215-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HALIFAX-PITTSYLVANIA-
513 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CASWELL...NORTHEASTERN
ROCKINGHAM...SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA...CITY OF DANVILLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES...

AT 512 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM RUFFIN TO NEAR
YANCEYVILLE...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...
SOUTH BOSTON...
YANCEYVILLE...
BETHEL...
AND BLAIRS.

THIS INCLUDES DANVILLE AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3645 7963 3687 7933 3668 7888 3654 7907
      3654 7914 3649 7914 3633 7935
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 217DEG 23KT 3645 7953 3640 7941

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
521 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VAZ013-014-016-017-272215-
MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-PULASKI-CARROLL-
521 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
PULASKI...NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTH
CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 520 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR
PILOT TO DRAPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHRISTIANSBURG...
PILOT...
ALLISONIA...
INDIAN VALLEY...
AND CLAYTOR DAM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3685 8072 3696 8080 3716 8042 3695 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 241DEG 76KT 3703 8045

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
525 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NCZ005-272215-
ROCKINGHAM-
525 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...

AT 524 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTH OF
ELLISBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
REIDSVILLE...
WENTWORTH...
BETHANY...
MONROETON...
AND HAW RIVER STATE PARK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3625 7996 3626 8002 3637 7972 3625 7964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 246DEG 20KT 3622 7995

MBS