Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
223 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED POPS TONIGHT FROM THE C LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
N LOWLANDS/MTNS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYS OVER OH WILL DRIFT SE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT
OVER THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW SHRA INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THIS SYS SPIRALS INTO THE AREA...EXPECT LOW CIGS TO
DEVELOP ALONG WITH PATCHY FG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER CHAOTIC IMAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL FEATURES OF
NOTE. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE KICKING OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OHIO. SKIES HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR SOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY...IN THE WAKE OF MCS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN IN EASTERN TN AND SOUTHERN KY AS
WELL. THESE HELPING TO KICK OFF CONVECTION. ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA A
SOLID MID DECK OF BLOW CLOUDS HAVE IMPEDED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS
THERE IS A LACK OF CONVECTION INITIATION SO FAR. HOWEVER...BL
HEATING ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALLOWING SOME CU TO FORM.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH ON WITH ALL OF
THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS SEEM TO SHOW A
TREND THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR THE VERY NEAR
TERM WITH THE RUC AND HRRR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS EVENING...RAMPS POPS BACK UP.  FOR
MONDAY...BROAD BUSHED POPS WITH AN EYE ON FEATURES THAT MAY TRACK
ACROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING TO KEEP IT SHORT THIS MORNING DUE TO OTHER PRESSING CONCERNS.

LAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW DIPS INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS KEEPING THE THREAT FOR ACTIVE WEATHER GOING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENDING WEDNESDAY. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS
LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER PRIMARILY OVER
THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WIND BEING THE
MAIN DRIVER. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR THE BULK OF
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND TIMING.

PATTERN FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE RIDGING ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTH AT THE
SURFACE.  THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BREAK THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
PRECIPITATION STREAK IF NOT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LESS NUMEROUS THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAYS...AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A LULL
IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS ON FRIDAY.
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD BRING SUBSIDENCE
AND RELATED WIDESPREAD DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

WENT WITH WPC FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY...
AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA 06Z TO 12Z...AFFECTING MAINLY CKB...EKN...AND
BKW.

LOOK FOR MVFR TO IFR IN THE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS...THEN IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL MAJOR TERMINALS. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY AROUND 15Z...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE TRANSITION. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA...WITH MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS...TO RAPIDLY CROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTN AND EVE HRS. SOME
OF THESE WILL BE STRONG TO SVR BUT AT THIS DISTANCE.

AFTER THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS...LOOK FOR IFR TO RETURN IN LOW CLOUDS
AND VSBY AFTER 02Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG IN QUESTION.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1107 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-VAZ003-004-WVZ007>011-014>020-026>029-
033>037-131515-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
1107 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013-024-025-131515-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
MINGO-LOGAN-
1107 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

WVZ030>032-038>040-046-047-131515-
LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
1107 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY AGAIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
130 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N CENTERPOINT         38.90N  82.45W
07/13/2015                   GALLIA             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER CLOSURE AT 279 AND US 35 NEAR CENTERPOINT

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501593

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE JACKSON            39.07N  82.60W
07/13/2015                   JACKSON            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            SR 788 AT FAIRGREENS RD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501594

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HEAVY RAIN       9 NE SANDYVILLE         39.00N  81.54W
07/12/2015  M1.27 INCH       JACKSON            WV   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FELL IN 30 MINUTES. HIS CREEK IS RUNNING BANKFULL.

1008 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E MINERALWELLS          39.18N  81.51W
07/12/2015                   WOOD               WV   911 CALL CENTER

            CAR SUBMERGED IN FLOOD WATERS ALONG ELIZABETH PIKE NEAR
            BUTCHERER BEND IN MINERAL WELLS.

1011 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E MINERALWELLS          39.18N  81.51W
07/12/2015                   WOOD               WV   911 CALL CENTER

            HOUSES IN THE MOUNT PLEASANT SUBDIVISION IN MINERAL
            WELLS HAVE BEEN FLOODED.

1035 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE DAVISVILLE         39.18N  81.47W
07/12/2015                   WOOD               WV   911 CALL CENTER

            TRAVEL TRAILER AT WEST VIRGINIA INTERSTATE FAIRGROUNDS
            WAS LIFTED BY RAPIDLY RISING FLOOD WATERS AND MOVED AN
            UNDETERMINED LENGTH. OCCUPANT TRIED TO CLIMB ON ROOF AND
            WAS UNHARMED WHEN THE TRAILER RAN AGROUND.

1040 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PARKERSBURG             39.26N  81.54W
07/12/2015                   WOOD               WV   PUBLIC

            EAST STREET BRIDGE VIADUCT FLOODED. PUBLIC REPORTS
            AROUND THREE FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROAD.

1047 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE MINERALWELLS       39.13N  81.45W
07/12/2015                   WOOD               WV   911 CALL CENTER

            STATE ROUTE 47 NEAR LEACHTOWN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

1134 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MINERALWELLS            39.18N  81.51W
07/12/2015                   WOOD               WV   PUBLIC

            TURKEY FOOT ROAD IN MINERAL WELLS IS UNDERWATER WITH
            WATER HALFWAY UP THE YARDS

1140 PM     HEAVY RAIN       JACKSON                 39.05N  82.63W
07/12/2015  M1.58 INCH       JACKSON            OH   MESONET

            30 MINUTE TOTAL.

1145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      E MINERALWELLS          39.18N  81.51W
07/12/2015                   WOOD               WV   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER UP TO AND COMING IN FIRST FLOOR WINDOWS AT
            LINCOLNSHIRE APARTMENTS ON DUBLIN DRIVE IN MINERAL
            WELLS. RESCUE BOATS ARE EN ROUTE FOR STRANDED RESIDENTS.

1145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COALTON                 39.11N  82.61W
07/12/2015                   JACKSON            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            SR 93 CLOSED AT COALTON DUE TO HIGH WATER.

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MINERALWELLS            39.18N  81.51W
07/13/2015                   WOOD               WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            50 TO 60 HOMES WITH WATER IN THEM NEAR THE MINERAL
            WELLS AREA PER WOOD COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT. REPORT RELAYED BY STATE EOC.

1214 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MINERALWELLS            39.18N  81.51W
07/13/2015                   WOOD               WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE STREETS IN THE MOUNT PLEASANT ESTATES
            SUBDIVISION ARE UNDER WATER. PUBLIC REPORTS WATER IS UP
            TO CAR WINDOWS.

1233 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE JACKSON           39.06N  82.58W
07/13/2015                   JACKSON            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER CLOSURE AT RICE ROAD AND SR 32.

0105 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N CENTERPOINT         38.90N  82.45W
07/13/2015                   GALLIA             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER CLOSURE AT 279 AND US 35 NEAR CENTERPOINT

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE JACKSON            39.07N  82.60W
07/13/2015                   JACKSON            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            SR 788 AT FAIRGREENS RD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501580 RLX1501581 RLX1501582 RLX1501591 RLX1501583
RLX1501584 RLX1501585 RLX1501586 RLX1501587 RLX1501592 RLX1501588
RLX1501589 RLX1501590 RLX1501593 RLX1501594

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
218 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MINERALWELLS            39.18N  81.51W
07/13/2015                   WOOD               WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            70 TO 80 HOMES ARE NOW BEING REPORTED TO HAVE FLOODED
            TO SOME EXTENT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501595

NW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
256 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

WVZ037-038-130800-
WEBSTER-NICHOLAS-
256 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN NICHOLAS AND
WEBSTER COUNTIES...

AT 254 AM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER WEBSTER
AND NICHOLAS COUNTIES MOVING EAST.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3839 8024 3834 8033 3834 8035 3824 8036
      3823 8037 3827 8044 3816 8060 3848 8072
      3864 8052 3867 8050 3872 8044 3847 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 0654Z 240DEG 49KT 3845 8045

26