Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THURSDAY. MORE DISTURBANCES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT THINKING THE CURRENT LINE WILL CAUSE MORE THAN THE USUAL STREET FLOODING
IN THE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES.
ALSO STILL THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON COMPLEX WILL BE SW
OF THE WOOD COUNTY TO WEBSTER COUNTY CORRIDOR...THAT WAS HIT OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT.

HOWEVER...WILL STILL POST A GENERAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE
CHANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THINKING THE BEST CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S TO OUR WEST...COULD NOT RULE OUT OUR CWA...SO WILL LEAVE 30 POPS
LATE TONIGHT. WILL POSTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER THE WETTEST COUNTIES
OF LATE.  IF TRENDS ARE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPAND FURTHER NE TOWARD
CLARKSBURG AND ELKINS.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTHWEST...AHEAD OF THE 500 MB TROF AXIS THAT SWINGS THROUGH
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MAIN SHOT
OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE EARLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH QPF NEARING
1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. COORDINATED WITH NEAR TERM
FORECASTER ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID UNTIL 03Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRYER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. IN FACT...WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HIGHEST
POPS DURING AFTERNOONS...AND LOWER AT NIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING ANY
INDIVIDUAL VORT MAX IS TOUGH AND STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC
GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARM...WITH UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEFORE 18Z...STRONGEST CELLS WITH LINE MOVING SE THROUGH SRN OHIO SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY W OF HTS...WHERE THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY.  YET...STILL HAVE
LINE MOVING QUICKLY SE AT 40 TO 45 MPH...NE EXTENT SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED
WITH LIGHTNING/THUNDER...INCLUDING PKB TO CKB.  BRIEF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD TAKE
VSBY INTO IFR FOR UNDER AN HOUR...WITH LINGERING LIGHTER SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE.

STILL FIGURING ON LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM 03Z TO 06Z...BUT UNSURE IF
THEY STAY SCATTERED OR DEVELOP A CEILING.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MOSTLY
CEILINGS.

HAVE MORE 1 TO 2 THSD FT CEILINGS 12 TO 15Z...THEN MOSTLY AROUND 2 THSD FT
CEILINGS AFTER 15Z.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MOSTLY 18Z AND
AFTERWARDS ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FG IN QUESTION
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AND MUGGY AIR OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.  IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>009-
     013>018-024>029-033>038.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ075-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
506 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

KYZ102-105-WVZ005-142115-
CARTER-LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE-
506 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-033-142115-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-MCDOWELL-
506 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101-103-OHZ075-083>087-WVZ006-009-017-018-028-029-038-142115-
GREENUP-BOYD-ATHENS-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
CABELL-WOOD-WIRT-CALHOUN-BRAXTON-GILMER-WEBSTER-
506 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ007-008-013>016-025>027-034>037-142115-
MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
506 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-067-076-WVZ010-011-019-020-030-031-142115-
PERRY-MORGAN-WASHINGTON-PLEASANTS-TYLER-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-LEWIS-
HARRISON-
506 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ032-039-040-046-047-142115-
TAYLOR-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
506 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
 CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WSW SALT ROCK         38.30N  82.28W
07/13/2015                   CABELL             WV   PUBLIC

            US 60 WEST ALONG UPPER TYGART BRANCH CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501631

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
612 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SALT ROCK               38.32N  82.22W
07/13/2015                   CABELL             WV   PUBLIC

            SR 1626 AT DRY BRANCH ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1501632

COOPER