Tornado Warning 61, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT REPEATED
CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS NOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS CREATES A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SURFACE FEATURES...PARTICULARLY THE DRYLINE. THE USUAL
RULE IS TO BELIEVE THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST MODEL FOR THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT W OF ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KGAG AND
KWWR THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. THE MOIST...UNSTABLE...UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE TSRA
ALMOST ANYWHERE...ANYTIME...INCLUDING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET REFORMS. THE TAFS...THEREFORE...ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/CEILINGS/TSRA...AND INCLUDE WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FG
COULD FORM AGAIN TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF OK...BUT LOW/MID CLOUD
COVER IS MORE LIKELY TO PREVENT IT.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE...INCLUDING TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...NEAR AND SOUTH OF
SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS...OVER TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION AFFECTING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL LEAVE POPS
GOING FOR THE POSSIBILITY. MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEERING FLOW
WOULD KEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND WEST OF BODY OF OKLAHOMA.
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH NORTHERN TEXAS/FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...
WE COULD SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IF THERE IS AN MCS TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCES QUITE
LOW. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT SUSTAIN TO OUR SOUTH OR MOVES EAST
QUICKER THAN PROGD...WE COULD SEE ELEVATED LLJ INDUCED ACTIVITY
NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING. SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
WOULD BE SEE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE SEVERE RISK
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS-SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK. ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR PROBABLE
WITH FLOODING A DEFINITE AND CONTINUING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WERE
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREV FCSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  76  51  70 /  50  60  30   0
HOBART OK         57  78  49  71 /  30  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  78  54  73 /  60  60  20  10
GAGE OK           51  74  44  69 /  20   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  77  49  70 /  50  50  30   0
DURANT OK         68  76  59  75 /  60  80  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

23/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
436 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-102130-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
436 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS
TO HOBART TO CHICKASHA TO PAULS VALLEY TO ADA TO COALGATE.
THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS
THE REST OF CENTRAL...WESTERN...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 10 PM THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

IMPACTS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
...VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL...
...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...
...FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 PM THIS EVENING...WHEN THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT REMAIN
VERY UNCERTAIN.

SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE THE AIR IS MOST UNSTABLE. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR
IN THESE AREAS AND TRANSITION TO CLUSTERS OR LINES.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SIGNFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM OR MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE
7 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TRANSITION TO CLUSTERS
OR LINES LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...OVERALL...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL DECREASE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO
LARGE CLUSTERS OR LINES.

.HEAVY RAIN...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY...AS THE STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

STORMS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST BY LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.HEAVY RAIN...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

AUSTIN/EM/MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW ELECTRA            34.08N 98.98W
05/09/2015  E70.00 MPH       WILBARGER          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OFF OF HIGHWAY 287

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
602 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TORNADO          4 WNW BURKBURNETT       34.11N 98.63W
05/09/2015                   WICHITA            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOUCHDOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF MULLER ROAD AND FAIRVIEW
            ROAD

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TORNADO          4 W RANDLETT            34.18N 98.53W
05/09/2015                   COTTON             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED A STOVEPIPE CROSSING THE ROAD LESS THAN
            HALF A MILE IN FRONT OF HIM.

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TORNADO          2 N WILLIS              33.92N 96.83W
05/09/2015                   MARSHALL           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          2 W RANDLETT            34.18N 98.50W
05/09/2015                   COTTON             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO REPORTED NEAR THE I-44 AND HIGHWAY 70
            INTERSECTION JUST WEST OF RANDLETT.

&&

MDAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ014-021-100015-
ROGER MILLS OK-BECKHAM OK-
650 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROGER MILLS AND
NORTHWESTERN BECKHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
SWEETWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED OR IF STORMS THREATEN YOU.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 10000 3571 9984 3536 9970 3530 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 244DEG 31KT 3540 10005