Severe Thunderstorm Warning 324, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL THUNDERSTORM SYSTEM CONTINUED TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERE TSRA CONTINUES TO BREAK OUT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WITH MARGINAL GR AS THE MAIN THREAT.
EXPECTING STORMS TO RAMP UP BY 21Z... AFFECTING MOST OF OUR
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DECREASING WEST TO EAST BY EARLY MORNING... AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES IT TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/

UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING. ONE IN SE PARTS OF THE
FA AND THE OTHER AREA IS AFFECTING WESTERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT DECREASE/DIMINISH
EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE MORNING CONVECTION BUT ADDITIONAL
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OK/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. FURTHER NORTH THERE COULD BE OTHER STORMS
BUT MAY BE MORE SCATTERED. SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF HAVE A CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING. HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
TONIGHT.

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORNING
ACTIVITY... THEN LOWERED CHANCES FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
INCREASE POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THIS EVENING. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MESSY SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR THE COMING DAY WITH RESPECT
TO CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST THAT WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SEVERE... MAINLY HAIL... TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE
QUESTION IS THEN, WHAT IMPACT WILL THIS HAVE ON AFTN STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND ITS INTENSITY.

CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EAST AND
NORTHEAST SUFFICIENTLY EARLY THAT THE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WILL RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTN HOURS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
BACK SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. APPEARS THAT WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE MOST
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH WILL STILL HAVE
POTENTIAL AS INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS... JUST MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY EXIST THERE.

WE THEN TURN TO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATE NIGHT
REDEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVANCING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... WHICH IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER
THAN WAS PREVIOUS MODELS WOULD HAVE INDICATED. MODELS ALSO SHOW...
UNFORTUNATELY... VERY HIGH PRECIP TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS A SEVERE RISK
FOR SUNDAY... BUT THINK THAT ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL BE MAIN IMPACT
WITH THE STORMS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE NEED TO EXTEND
THE FLOOD WATCH INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY UNDER THE WATCH.

AFTER THIS SHOULD SEE A COUPLE OF RATHER TRANQUIL AND DRY DAYS
BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS MORE PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO THE
AREA BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  74  63  77  52 /  80  50  50  40
HOBART OK         74  58  79  50 /  70  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  62  79  54 /  70  60  60  40
GAGE OK           74  51  75  44 / 100  30  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     74  63  78  49 /  50  50  40  30
DURANT OK         76  67  77  59 /  80  70  80  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

25/11/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101615-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1111 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... AND ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD
AND ENID... TO KINGFISHER AND MUSTANG... TO PAULS VALLEY AND
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A
SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL... CENTRAL... SOUTH
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BUT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM.

IMPACTS...
TORNADOES POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MUCH OF
THE DAY...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE 4 PM TO 10 PM WINDOW...WHEN THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE SOME BY AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THE PROGRESSION AND INTENSITY OF THE SEVERE STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION AND
RECOVERY FROM THE EARLY STORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS... AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

.HEAVY RAIN...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RIVER FLOODING WILL
ALSO OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY...AS THE STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

STORMS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST BY LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.HEAVY RAIN...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

AUSTIN/EM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ046-047-050-051-091945-
CARTER OK-LOVE OK-MARSHALL OK-JOHNSTON OK-
215 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...EASTERN
LOVE...NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

AT 212 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
MARIETTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3372 9713 3383 9720 3384 9717 3389 9718
      3391 9723 3391 9724 3392 9724 3419 9719
      3419 9663 3394 9690 3396 9692 3394 9697
      3395 9700 3389 9698 3384 9704 3386 9707
      3385 9709 3382 9705 3380 9709 3376 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 219DEG 57KT 3387 9711

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ052-091945-
BRYAN OK-
215 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BRYAN COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

AT 212 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LAKE TEXOMA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
STAY ALERT AND LISTEN FOR WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 9649 3378 9651 3382 9653 3382 9658
      3385 9663 3388 9659 3391 9658 3392 9659
      3392 9658 3395 9660 3396 9658 3397 9658
      3411 9650 3412 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 218DEG 36KT 3384 9660