Severe Thunderstorm Warning 428, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS MORE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. THINK
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER AND DUE TO
HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT...THAT WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
FROM HOBART TO ALTUS TO QUANAH AT 950 PM APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
A STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD POOL. WITH THIS THOUGHT AND LOOKING AT
LATEST HRRR RUNS...THINK THIS LINE WILL GROW UPSCALE...BECOME A
LARGE ORGANIZED COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BRINGING SOME WIND AND HAIL REPORTS. A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES
COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS LINE AS WELL. THIS LINE MAY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
STAY SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
A FEW NON SEVERE AND LIGHTER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CURRENT MASS OF TSRA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE E INTO CENTRAL OK WILL
FILL IN AND BECOME A SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY VARIABLE OVER SPACE AND TIME.
IN ADDITION...SCT +TSRA OVER S OK AND N TX WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD ADVANCE SE ACROSS ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC...WHICH SHOULD BE N OF THE
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF
+TSRA...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE AN HOUR OF -RA AS THE STORMS ADVANCE
SOUTH OF EACH SITE. AS THE STORMS DEPART TO THE S/SE...N WINDS
WILL BEGIN...AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
UNLIMITED ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY SLOW INCREASES IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...BUT IF THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN
ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  68  53  66 /  70  40  20  10
HOBART OK         53  67  52  66 / 100  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  76  57  69 / 100  40  50  30
GAGE OK           45  62  47  64 /  40  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     51  66  50  66 /  60  30  10  10
DURANT OK         62  80  59  71 / 100  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

MBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-210215-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A SAYRE TO HOBART TO
PURCELL TO HOLDENVILLE LINE. WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...ALTUS...
ARDMORE...ADA....DURANT...VERNON AND SEYMOUR TEXAS AREAS ARE
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TIMING...
BEFORE 2 AM TONIGHT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

MAIN IMPACTS...
FLOODING RAINFALL...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH...
A FEW TORNADOES...

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY. THESE
SUPERCELLS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FORM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BRINGING SOME REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.

ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 2 AM TONIGHT...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THOUGH SOME
STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
TONIGHT.

.FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.FLOODING...
SOME RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR FLOOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. ADDITIONAL RAINS
THROUGH THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
932 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRANITE                 34.96N 99.38W
05/19/2015  E80 MPH          GREER              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
937 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TORNADO          5 SE RINGLING           34.13N 97.53W
05/19/2015                   CARTER             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
942 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TORNADO          5 SSE WILSON            34.09N 97.40W
05/19/2015                   CARTER             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
951 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ033-036-TXZ083>085-200315-
HARMON OK-JACKSON OK-WILBARGER TX-HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-
951 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARMON...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN WILBARGER...HARDEMAN AND
NORTHWESTERN FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 949 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR ELDORADO TO 3 MILES NORTH OF QUANAH TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF GOODLETT
TO 11 MILES EAST OF SWEARINGEN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE...ELDORADO...ODELL...MEDICINE MOUND AND COPPER
BREAKS STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3421 10005 3424 10002 3423 10000 3428 9999
      3435 9982 3458 9974 3452 9937 3436 9937
      3420 9945 3408 9962 3414 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 286DEG 29KT 3451 9967 3435 9972 3427 9986 3420
9996

KURTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
957 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ028-030-031-040-042-200400-
POTTAWATOMIE OK-PONTOTOC OK-MCCLAIN OK-SEMINOLE OK-GARVIN OK-
957 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE...
NORTHWESTERN PONTOTOC...SOUTHEASTERN MCCLAIN...SOUTHWESTERN SEMINOLE
AND NORTHEASTERN GARVIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 954 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
STRATFORD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADA...KONAWA...BYNG...ASHER...WANETTE AND FRANCIS.

LAT...LON 3482 9699 3499 9704 3506 9665 3494 9656
      3480 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 258DEG 12KT 3489 9693

KURTZ

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