Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
657 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CURRENT MASS OF TSRA FROM THE TX PANHANDLE E INTO CENTRAL OK WILL
FILL IN AND BECOME A SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES S FROM KS. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE EXTREMELY VARIABLE OVER SPACE AND TIME.
IN ADDITION...SCT +TSRA OVER S OK AND N TX WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND SOME OF THEM WILL BE SEVERE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A
SINGLE LARGE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD ADVANCE SE ACROSS ALL OUR TAF
SITES EXCEPT KGAG...KWWR...AND KPNC...WHICH SHOULD BE N OF THE
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 2 HOURS OF
+TSRA...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE AN HOUR OF -RA AS THE STORMS ADVANCE
SOUTH OF EACH SITE. AS THE STORMS DEPART TO THE S/SE...N WINDS
WILL BEGIN...AND COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE
UNLIMITED ONCE THE RAIN STOPS...BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY SLOW INCREASES IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...BUT IF THE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE LAYER IS THIN
ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EXISTING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN MERGE INTO A SINGLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE STORMS WITH
IT...TEMPORARILY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN HAS
CAUSED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE...AREAS OF FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS
AND HIGHWAYS IN URBANIZED AREAS UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE
HAVE EXPANDED OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN/NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WEEKENDS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE
CLASSIC SEVERE-WEATHER LOOK TO IT. IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED.
NEVERTHELESS...IF WE DO NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.

DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MAY BRING US A FEW DAYS OF DRY
WEATHER...BUT THAT IS CERTAINLY NOT GUARANTEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  68  53  66 /  90  40  20  10
HOBART OK         61  67  52  66 /  80  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  76  57  69 /  70  40  50  30
GAGE OK           52  62  47  64 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     58  66  50  66 /  90  30  10  10
DURANT OK         68  80  59  71 /  70  50  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>030-033>040-044-045.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005-006-009>011-
     015.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ031-032-041>043-
     046>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-084-087-088.

&&

23/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-210215-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A SAYRE TO HOBART TO
PURCELL TO HOLDENVILLE LINE. WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...ALTUS...
ARDMORE...ADA....DURANT...VERNON AND SEYMOUR TEXAS AREAS ARE
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TIMING...
BEFORE 2 AM TONIGHT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

MAIN IMPACTS...
FLOODING RAINFALL...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH...
A FEW TORNADOES...

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY. THESE
SUPERCELLS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FORM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BRINGING SOME REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.

ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 2 AM TONIGHT...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THOUGH SOME
STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
TONIGHT.

.FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.FLOODING...
SOME RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR FLOOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. ADDITIONAL RAINS
THROUGH THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             HOLLIS                  34.69N 99.92W
05/19/2015  E1.75 INCH       HARMON             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
849 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     HAIL             1 S RINGLING            34.16N 97.59W
05/19/2015  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
854 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ029>031-200245-
POTTAWATOMIE OK-CLEVELAND OK-SEMINOLE OK-
854 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN POTTAWATOMIE...EAST
CENTRAL CLEVELAND AND WEST CENTRAL SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM
CDT...

AT 853 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MACOMB...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAWNEE...TECUMSEH...MAUD...EARLSBORO...ASHER...TRIBBEY...ST.
LOUIS...ETOWAH...BROOKSVILLE...MACOMB...HARJO AND TROUSDALE.

LAT...LON 3497 9713 3522 9719 3534 9679 3519 9670
      3501 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 255DEG 24KT 3510 9699

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
903 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S RINGLING            34.13N 97.59W
05/19/2015                   JEFFERSON          OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POSSIBLE TORNADO

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
907 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW RYAN               34.05N 97.99W
05/19/2015                   JEFFERSON          OK   STORM CHASER

            DAMAGE TO POWER LINES

&&

JPIKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
914 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ027-028-039-040-200245-
GRADY OK-MCCLAIN OK-GARVIN OK-STEPHENS OK-
914 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRADY...SOUTHWESTERN
MCCLAIN...NORTHWESTERN GARVIN AND NORTH CENTRAL STEPHENS COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 910 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINDSAY...BRAY...BRADLEY...ERIN SPRINGS AND COX CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 9777 3467 9791 3494 9771 3477 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 222DEG 24KT 3466 9781

AUSTIN