Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD MAINLY INFLUENCE OKC/OUN/PNC
THROUGH 15Z. THE RAIN SHOULD ALSO HELP TO IMPROVE IFR CONDITIONS
AT THESE SITES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT LAW/OKC/OUN.
OTHERWISE...LOW CEILINGS AND FOG AT CSM/GAG/WWR SHOULD IMPROVE
BY 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/

DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS SET TO MOVE INTO PART OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THIS COMPLEX
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-44 THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE
HRRR...BUT CONTINUE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
SEMINOLE...PAULS VALLEY AND HENRIETTA...TEXAS MAY SEE ANOTHER 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE MORNING
CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL...AND FLOODING RAINFALL.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES...SIMILAR TO THE 06Z NAM. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT THE RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK FROM SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING RAIN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH THE SAME...BUT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REMOVE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  76  51  70  50 /  60  40   0   0
HOBART OK         78  49  70  48 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  55  72  51 /  70  20  10   0
GAGE OK           74  43  68  43 /   0  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  48  69  45 /  50  40   0   0
DURANT OK         76  60  75  54 /  90  80  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111230-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH A SLIGHT RISK COVERING CENTRAL PARTS
OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA GENERALLY COVERS ATOKA AND BRYAN COUNTIES.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
PONCA CITY AND PERRY...TO OKLAHOMA CITY...TO DUNCAN AND WAURIKA.

TIMING...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN THE 2 PM TO 4 PM TIME FRAME
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

IMPACTS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS 70 TO 80 MPH...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS TODAY.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...OVER OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE LATEST DATA SUPPORTS
GREATEST RISK FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK
AREAS. INITIATION COULD OCCUR NEAR OR JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE-35.
ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING RAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON. THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE LOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.HEAVY RAIN...
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE-44 WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING. MANY CREEKS RIVERS ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD AND ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE THE SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
730 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

OKZ028-030>032-042-101300-
POTTAWATOMIE OK-PONTOTOC OK-MCCLAIN OK-HUGHES OK-SEMINOLE OK-
730 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE...
NORTHWESTERN PONTOTOC...EASTERN MCCLAIN...NORTHWESTERN HUGHES AND
SEMINOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 727 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KONAWA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEMINOLE...WEWOKA...KONAWA...BYNG...MAUD...EARLSBORO...BOWLEGS...
ASHER...ST. LOUIS...LITTLE...LIMA AND HARJO.

LAT...LON 3489 9664 3493 9698 3538 9681 3535 9654
      3531 9644 3529 9644 3529 9641 3526 9634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1227Z 207DEG 41KT 3499 9678

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
809 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSE DURANT            33.91N 96.34W
05/10/2015  M53 MPH          BRYAN              OK   MESONET

&&

OUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

OKZ048-052-101345-
ATOKA OK-BRYAN OK-
812 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ATOKA AND
NORTHEASTERN BRYAN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

AT 809 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES EAST OF CADDO TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BENNINGTON TO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINDS GUSTING OVER 55 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOKCHITO...BENNINGTON...ALBANY...WADE AND BENTLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 9576 3386 9581 3383 9584 3389 9593
      3386 9595 3385 9598 3387 9600 3384 9602
      3384 9615 3419 9624 3431 9578 3416 9578
      3415 9598 3414 9597 3412 9594 3394 9594
      3387 9584 3387 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 1309Z 244DEG 39KT 3412 9619 3397 9609 3383 9609

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

OKZ008-101800-
KAY OK-
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN KAY COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM
CDT...

AT 1227 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRAMAN TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TONKAWA...
DRIFTING EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 9729 3666 9746 3700 9734 3700 9717
      3699 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 202DEG 71KT 3700 9724 3675 9737

AUSTIN