Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Norman, OK

591 
WGUS74 KOUN 100347
FFSOUN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKC027-087-125-137-100353-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150510T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCCLAIN OK-POTTAWATOMIE OK-STEPHENS OK-CLEVELAND OK-
1047 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MCCLAIN...SOUTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...EASTERN STEPHENS AND SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED THROUGH AT LEAST 2 AM TONIGHT. PLEASE 
CONTINUE TO HEED ALL ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3457 9726 3486 9692 3425 9693 3429 9735

$$

OKC019-049-099-123-100430-
/O.CON.KOUN.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150510T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MURRAY OK-PONTOTOC OK-CARTER OK-GARVIN OK-
1047 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR
MURRAY...WEST CENTRAL PONTOTOC...EAST CENTRAL CARTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
GARVIN COUNTIES...

AT 1043 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN DAVIS AND 
SULPHER. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 6 PM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SULPHUR... 
DAVIS...WYNNEWOOD...STRATFORD...SPRINGER...DOUGHERTY...GENE 
AUTRY...TURNER FALLS AND LAKE OF THE ARBUCKLES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA THROUGH 1130 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3457 9726 3486 9692 3425 9693 3429 9735

$$

MBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
652 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT REPEATED
CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS NOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS CREATES A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SURFACE FEATURES...PARTICULARLY THE DRYLINE. THE USUAL
RULE IS TO BELIEVE THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST MODEL FOR THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT W OF ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KGAG AND
KWWR THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. THE MOIST...UNSTABLE...UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE TSRA
ALMOST ANYWHERE...ANYTIME...INCLUDING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET REFORMS. THE TAFS...THEREFORE...ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/CEILINGS/TSRA...AND INCLUDE WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FG
COULD FORM AGAIN TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF OK...BUT LOW/MID CLOUD
COVER IS MORE LIKELY TO PREVENT IT.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE...INCLUDING TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...NEAR AND SOUTH OF
SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS...OVER TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION AFFECTING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL LEAVE POPS
GOING FOR THE POSSIBILITY. MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEERING FLOW
WOULD KEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND WEST OF BODY OF OKLAHOMA.
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH NORTHERN TEXAS/FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...
WE COULD SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IF THERE IS AN MCS TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCES QUITE
LOW. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT SUSTAIN TO OUR SOUTH OR MOVES EAST
QUICKER THAN PROGD...WE COULD SEE ELEVATED LLJ INDUCED ACTIVITY
NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING. SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
WOULD BE SEE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE SEVERE RISK
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS-SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK. ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR PROBABLE
WITH FLOODING A DEFINITE AND CONTINUING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WERE
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREV FCSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  76  51  70 /  50  60  30   0
HOBART OK         57  78  49  71 /  30  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  78  54  73 /  60  60  20  10
GAGE OK           51  74  44  69 /  20   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  77  49  70 /  50  50  30   0
DURANT OK         68  76  59  75 /  60  80  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

23/23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
436 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-102130-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
436 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOLLIS
TO HOBART TO CHICKASHA TO PAULS VALLEY TO ADA TO COALGATE.
THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK COVERS
THE REST OF CENTRAL...WESTERN...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER 10 PM THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

IMPACTS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
...VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL...
...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...
...FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY BEFORE 10 PM THIS EVENING...WHEN THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREATS THROUGH TONIGHT REMAIN
VERY UNCERTAIN.

SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WHERE THE AIR IS MOST UNSTABLE. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR
IN THESE AREAS AND TRANSITION TO CLUSTERS OR LINES.

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SIGNFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM OR MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN THE
7 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TRANSITION TO CLUSTERS
OR LINES LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.

AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...OVERALL...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL DECREASE...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO
LARGE CLUSTERS OR LINES.

.HEAVY RAIN...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY...AS THE STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

STORMS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST BY LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.HEAVY RAIN...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

AUSTIN/EM/MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
738 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             SW DUNCAN               34.50N 97.96W
05/09/2015  E1.75 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            HIGHWAY 81 AND HIGHWAY 7 BYPASS.

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
741 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     HAIL             COMANCHE                34.37N 97.97W
05/09/2015  E1.00 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   PUBLIC

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
747 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             1 S DUNCAN              34.49N 97.96W
05/09/2015  E1.25 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
749 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             COMANCHE                34.37N 97.97W
05/09/2015  E2.75 INCH       STEPHENS           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
755 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DUNCAN                  34.50N 97.96W
05/09/2015                   STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            4 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER ON HIGHWAY 81.

&&

MDAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
824 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ043-048-100200-
ATOKA OK-COAL OK-
824 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ATOKA AND SOUTHEASTERN
COAL COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 823 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TUSHKA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATOKA...STRINGTOWN...TUSHKA...ATOKA RESERVOIR AND MCGEE CREEK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 9614 3430 9623 3453 9612 3442 9584
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 210DEG 18KT 3433 9614

MAHALE