River Flood Warning 23, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
933 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION OVER OUR FORECAST AREA HAS...IN GENERAL...WEAKENED
SLOWLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STORMS OVER TEXAS...NEAR
I-20...ARE EXPECTED TO CUT OFF THE FLOW OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEYOND WHAT IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED IN OUR
AREA...AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. LLJ-BASED
ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SOMETIME OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 3 AM...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-44. HEAVY RAIN
WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR. ALTHOUGH ANY
STORMS THAT FORM BASED ON THE LLJ SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEY ARE LIKELY TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREAS.

AN ISOLATED STORM OVER CUSTER COUNTY HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT...AND WILL PROBABLY SUSTAIN ITSELF AT LEAST UNTIL IT
REACHES A SOMEWHAT LESS-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER BLAINE OR
KINGFISHER COUNTY.

THE APPROPRIATE PARTS OF THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AS
NEEDED TO REFLECT THESE EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

AVIATION...
THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT REPEATED
CONVECTIVE OUTBREAKS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS NOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS CREATES A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SURFACE FEATURES...PARTICULARLY THE DRYLINE. THE USUAL
RULE IS TO BELIEVE THE WESTERNMOST FORECAST MODEL FOR THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT W OF ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KGAG AND
KWWR THROUGH 00Z TOMORROW. THE MOIST...UNSTABLE...UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE TSRA
ALMOST ANYWHERE...ANYTIME...INCLUDING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET REFORMS. THE TAFS...THEREFORE...ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/CEILINGS/TSRA...AND INCLUDE WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FG
COULD FORM AGAIN TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF OK...BUT LOW/MID CLOUD
COVER IS MORE LIKELY TO PREVENT IT.

CMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE...INCLUDING TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...NEAR AND SOUTH OF
SEYMOUR AND WICHITA FALLS...OVER TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN DRYLINE CONVECTION AFFECTING WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL LEAVE POPS
GOING FOR THE POSSIBILITY. MOST OF THE FORCING AND STEERING FLOW
WOULD KEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND WEST OF BODY OF OKLAHOMA.
DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH NORTHERN TEXAS/FAR SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...
WE COULD SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IF THERE IS AN MCS TO OUR SOUTH...CHANCES QUITE
LOW. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT SUSTAIN TO OUR SOUTH OR MOVES EAST
QUICKER THAN PROGD...WE COULD SEE ELEVATED LLJ INDUCED ACTIVITY
NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR TOMORROW MORNING. SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
WOULD BE SEE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH MOST OF THE SEVERE RISK
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS-SOUTHWEST INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK. ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR PROBABLE
WITH FLOODING A DEFINITE AND CONTINUING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WERE
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREV FCSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  76  51  70 /  30  60  30   0
HOBART OK         57  78  49  71 /  30  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  63  78  54  73 /  50  60  20  10
GAGE OK           51  74  44  69 /  10   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  77  49  70 /  30  50  30   0
DURANT OK         68  76  59  75 /  60  80  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-110200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM SEYMOUR TO VERNON TEXAS...TO FREDERICK TO ANADARKO TO
MOORE TO STROUD OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS HAVE DECREASED...BUT
STILL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

IMPACTS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...
...LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS...
...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THREATS TONIGHT REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS WHERE HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. DUE TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LARGE CLUSTERS
OR LINES. THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS LOW OR VERY LOW TONIGHT DUE
TO FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND.

.HEAVY RAIN...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO OCCUR
TONIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY...AS THE STRONG
STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...BUT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT. ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH A BREAK IN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

STORMS THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST BY LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.HEAVY RAIN...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

AUSTIN/EM/MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
937 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE PAULS VALLEY      34.73N 97.21W
05/09/2015                   GARVIN             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROADWAY ON
            HIGHWAY 77. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL.

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
952 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PAULS VALLEY            34.74N 97.22W
05/09/2015                   GARVIN             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL FEET OF WATER COVERING ROAD. VEHICLES STALLED.

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             6 SSE ADA               34.69N 96.64W
05/09/2015  E1.00 INCH       PONTOTOC           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ADA                     34.77N 96.68W
05/09/2015                   PONTOTOC           OK   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING IN ADA. HIGH WATER SHORTING OUT TRAFFIC
            LIGHT CONTROLS.

&&

MDAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

OKZ004-005-100415-
HARPER OK-WOODS OK-
1038 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HARPER AND NORTHWESTERN
WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1035 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BUFFALO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO AND SELMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9936 3686 9931 3660 9983 3684 9980
      3700 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 231DEG 39KT 3677 9972

MAHALE

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