Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE STORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER WEST TEXAS
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG I-40 SHOULD AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH.

LATER TONIGHT...THINGS BECOME MUCH LESS CLEAR. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY AS THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
CONTINUES TO PLOD EAST. THIS MAY CAUSE ADVERSE EFFECTS ON THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
GUIDANCE FINALLY BECOMES COHERENT AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS THE MAIN
UPPER WAVE DEPARTS...AND A COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTHEAST INTO
OKLAHOMA.

THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND MOISTURE QUANTITY
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEAR THE MAIN BRUNT
OF HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THE WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED FOR THAT AREA IN LATER FORECASTS...DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY WHEN THE RAIN FINALLY EXITS OUR FORECAST AREA.

MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A MILD AND DRY DAY...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN
ON TUESDAY. MODELS AGREE ON A MOIST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING ALOFT. ASSUMING THIS HAPPENS...THERE
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SINCE THE MAIN TARGET OF THE RAIN
NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY BE THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA...FLOODING
MAY BECOME A MAJOR CONCERN AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  77  63  75 /  60  70  50  50
HOBART OK         63  78  57  78 /  50  70  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  80  63  78 /  50  70  60  60
GAGE OK           59  78  51  74 /  50  70  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     63  77  63  76 /  70  70  60  40
DURANT OK         67  79  66  76 /  70  70  70  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

23/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091715-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
GOODLETT TEXAS... TO LAWTON AND PAULS VALLEY... TO DURANT
OKLAHOMA. AN ENHANCED RISK IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

TIMING...
THROUGH 10 PM

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH...
AND A FEW TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WHICH
MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL... MAINLY IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO ONE
OR MORE BOWING LINES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THIS
OCCURS... DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BECOME A BIGGER
CONCERN THAN THE HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

.HEAVY RAIN...
WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
AREAS WITH PROLONGED RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY...AND
A SLIGHT RISK SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY...A POTENT STORM SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...WILL YIELD A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. ON SUNDAY...SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT...BRINGING A CONTINUED
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN DECREASING STORM CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN RETURN EACH
DAY FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

.HEAVY RAIN...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
604 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

OKZ023-037-038-044-082330-
COMANCHE OK-COTTON OK-CADDO OK-TILLMAN OK-
604 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMANCHE...NORTHERN COTTON...
SOUTH CENTRAL CADDO AND EAST CENTRAL TILLMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 601 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR FORT SILL TO NEAR FAXON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAWTON...WALTERS...CACHE...GERONIMO...CHATTANOOGA...MEDICINE PARK...
INDIAHOMA...FAXON...FORT SILL...MEERS...LAKE LAWTONKA...SOUTHWESTERN
LAKE ELLSWORTH...HULEN...WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE...MOUNT
SCOTT...DORIS CAMPGROUND AND THE VISITOR CENTER.

LAT...LON 3489 9844 3467 9824 3437 9818 3437 9867
      3472 9881
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 251DEG 25KT 3466 9868 3442 9858

KURTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N THE VILLAGE         35.62N 97.55W
05/08/2015                   OKLAHOMA           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NW 150TH NEAR PENN COMPLETELY UNDER WATER.

&&

MDAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
616 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             2 N NORMAN              35.25N 97.44W
05/08/2015  M2.50 INCH       CLEVELAND          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

OKZ023-027-038-039-044-090000-
COMANCHE OK-GRADY OK-COTTON OK-CADDO OK-STEPHENS OK-
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COMANCHE...SOUTHWESTERN
GRADY...NORTHEASTERN COTTON...SOUTHEASTERN CADDO AND WESTERN STEPHENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 628 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE LAWTONKA TO NEAR FORT SILL TO 6 MILES EAST
OF GERONIMO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASTERN LAWTON...DUNCAN...MARLOW...WALTERS...ELGIN...COMANCHE...
APACHE...RUSH SPRINGS...FLETCHER...CYRIL...STERLING...CEMENT...
MEDICINE PARK...EASTERN FORT SILL...LAKE LAWTONKA...CORUM...LAKE
ELLSWORTH...CENTRAL HIGH...EMPIRE CITY AND LAVERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 9810 3479 9789 3438 9775 3435 9831
      3462 9841 3484 9858
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 248DEG 31KT 3481 9847 3465 9835 3445 9827

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

OKZ033>037-TXZ083>087-090045-
HARMON OK-GREER OK-TILLMAN OK-KIOWA OK-JACKSON OK-WILBARGER TX-
KNOX TX-HARDEMAN TX-WICHITA TX-FOARD TX-
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARMON...SOUTHEASTERN GREER...
TILLMAN...SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA...JACKSON...WILBARGER...NORTHWESTERN
KNOX...HARDEMAN...NORTHWESTERN WICHITA AND FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF STRONG AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT
WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE EXITING STORMS WILL CAUSE STRONG WIND GUSTS.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTUS...VERNON...FREDERICK...MANGUM...QUANAH...HOLLIS...CROWELL...
TIPTON...CHILLICOTHE...MARTHA...GOULD...HEADRICK...AND HOLLISTER.

LAT...LON 3423 10005 3424 10001 3423 10000 3482 9999
      3497 9950 3437 9869 3396 9931 3381 10000
      3384 10000 3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 248DEG 31KT 3437 9942

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
645 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAWTON                  34.60N 98.42W
05/08/2015                   COMANCHE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 IN OF RAIN RECORDED IN HALF AN HOUR. FLOODING IN
            STREETS WITH WATER ENCROACHING ON HOMES.

&&

MDAY