River Flood Warning 12, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

WENT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FORMING AT SITES 11-15Z. THE
WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE A FEW SITES MAY
APPROACH AIRPORT MINIMUMS WITH BR/FG. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL FORM.

OVERALL THINK CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR 15-20Z AT MOST SITES.

ADDITIONAL ISO-NUM TSRA CAN FORM ANYTIME NEARLY ANY PLACE AFTER
09Z. ADDED VCTS MENTION AT MANY SITES. TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF
GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO ANY GIVEN
SITE. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF TSRA REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015/

UPDATE...
DECREASED LOWS TONIGHT, CHANGES TO POPS, ADDITION OF FOG TO
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
MANY OBSERVATIONS NEAR PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WITH RAIN-COOLED AIR
OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OKLAHOMA. LOWS WERE LOWERED
SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT OR
PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES. WITH CLEARING FOR PART OR MOST OF THE
NIGHT WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS...ADDED THE
MENTION OF FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. REMOVED OR SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED POPS ACROSS
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

11/17/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
750 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE-35
AND SOUTH OF PAULS VALLEY AND ADA.

TIMING...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH...
AND A FEW TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WHICH
MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING. BOW STRUCTURES THAT COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS
LOW...A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE ENHANCED
RISK AREA.

.HEAVY RAIN...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL
ALSO CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY MAY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.HEAVY RAIN...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

OKZ051-052-080200-
BRYAN OK-MARSHALL OK-
827 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BRYAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 825 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODVILLE...
MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LAT...LON 3395 9620 3386 9662 3389 9659 3390 9663
      3392 9667 3389 9668 3385 9669 3384 9672
      3400 9679 3412 9651 3411 9646 3414 9645
      3416 9641 3416 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 249DEG 32KT 3395 9667

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             MCBRIDE                 33.94N 96.64W
05/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           OK   PUBLIC

0828 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCBRIDE                 33.94N 96.64W
05/07/2015                   MARSHALL           OK   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
941 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

OKZ048-052-080315-
ATOKA OK-BRYAN OK-
941 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ATOKA AND
NORTHEASTERN BRYAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 940 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
BOKCHITO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOKCHITO...BENNINGTON...TUSHKA...CANEY...LANE...DAISY...BENTLEY AND
MCGEE CREEK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9568 3451 9578 3416 9578 3416 9598
      3415 9596 3412 9594 3394 9594 3390 9587
      3394 9622 3431 9621 3456 9569 3452 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 241DEG 32KT 3409 9611

MBS