Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
344 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE GROUP OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH TOWARD THE EAST
THIS EVENING. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR AREA. IN ADDITION TO THESE STORMS...CONVECTION OVER COLORADO
AND KANSAS MAY BUILD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW...AND
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND THE RELATED SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG...NEGATIVELY-
TILTED...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR STORMS IN THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT IS EXPECTED.

AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...IT WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING A
PROGRESSIVE END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD
THE EAST. THE LAST OF THE STORMS SHOULD EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME SHOULD PROVIDE OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
WITH A FEW DAYS OF MILD/COOL WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY IMPROBABLE DURING
THIS PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  79  65  77 /  70  60  60  70
HOBART OK         63  79  64  77 /  60  70  30  70
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  79  66  79 /  60  70  50  60
GAGE OK           58  82  59  76 /  50  50  40  60
PONCA CITY OK     63  81  63  79 /  70  50  70  70
DURANT OK         68  81  66  79 /  70  40  70  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ006>008-011>013-
     015>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

25/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1154 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ELK CITY... TO CLINTON AND OKLAHOMA CITY... TO SEMINOLE OKLAHOMA.
THIS INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK IS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE.

TIMING...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED 2 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS... WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH...
AND A FEW TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SPREAD ACROSS AT
LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS... AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

.HEAVY RAIN...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN. MAINSTEM RIVER
FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY MAY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.HEAVY RAIN...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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