River Flood Warning 7, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS WERE DELAYED SLIGHTLY BY SOFTWARE ISSUES. CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WEATHER ELEMENTS REMAINS POOR BEYOND A FEW HOURS.
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSRA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING KOKC...KSPS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSRA MAY CONTINUE
OFF AND ON ALL NIGHT...BUT PREDICTABILITY DOES NOT WARRANT
INCLUSION IN TAFS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON LOW MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH THE EFFECTS
OF THE STORMS. DIURNAL LIFTING OF THE CEILINGS MAY BE SLOWER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY...DELAYING THE ONSET OF VFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A NEARLY EQUAL CHANCE OF TSRA EVERYWHERE
DURING THE ENTIRE DAY TOMORROW...BUT HAVE LIMITED MENTION IN TAFS
TO THE MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIMES.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE MINIMALLY-CAPPED
UNSTABLE/HIGH-SHEAR ATMOSPHERE THAT IS OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING....MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...NO ORGANIZED REGION OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SOME STORMS MAY PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SCATTERED...AND NOT AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN...INCLUDING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING ABOUT EACH DAY...WITH A
LOWER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY...SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON
FRIDAY...MUCH HIGHER ON SATURDAY...AND DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE A COOL AND QUIET PERIOD...FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS...AT LEAST. MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RISE AGAIN MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  77  64  79 /  50  50  60  50
HOBART OK         62  77  64  79 /  50  50  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  79  66  79 /  60  50  50  50
GAGE OK           62  80  59  80 /  20  40  60  50
PONCA CITY OK     66  79  63  80 /  40  40  70  50
DURANT OK         65  79  67  80 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/26/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-072030-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
328 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
FREEDOM AND CLINTON... TO ALTUS OKLAHOMA AND BENJAMIN TEXAS... AND
THEN WEST OF A LINE FROM PONCA CITY AND STILLWATER... TO SHAWNEE
AND SULPHUR... TO ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. THIS INCLUDES PLACES SUCH AS
ENID... THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO... LAWTON... AND WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH...
A FEW TORNADOES...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING...

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY ONLY BE A FEW
STORMS... ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SEVERE DUE TO HIGH
INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS... AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SOME HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...SATURDAY MAY HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
804 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             MINCO                   35.31N 97.94W
05/06/2015  E1.50 INCH       GRADY              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
807 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     WILL ROGERS AIRPORT     35.39N 97.60W
05/06/2015  M60 MPH          OKLAHOMA           OK   ASOS

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
810 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SW OKLAHOMA CITY      35.40N 97.60W
05/06/2015                   OKLAHOMA           OK   ASOS

            ONE HOUR MEASURED RAINFALL OF 3.04 INCHES AT WILL ROGERS
            WORLD AIRPORT RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE
            AREA.

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 E TUTTLE              35.29N 97.74W
05/06/2015  M82 MPH          GRADY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            82 MPH EAST WIND ALONG WITH HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             5 E TUTTLE              35.29N 97.72W
05/06/2015  E1.75 INCH       GRADY              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
851 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     TORNADO          3 SSE OKLAHOMA CITY     35.43N 97.49W
05/06/2015                   OKLAHOMA           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            OVERTURNED VEHICLES AND DOWNED POWER LINES AT THE
            INTERSECTION OF I-35 AND SW 44TH

&&

FM