Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST FOR MANY AIRFIELDS TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THIS EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AS ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
AREA AERODROMES. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT... SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W/NW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO FLIRT WITH MVFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY RECOVERING THROUGH MID DAY.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX OVERNIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN
N TX THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THE EVENING... WITH MOST STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THROUGH 23Z... THE DRYLINE WAS VISIBLE ON
KFDR REACHING AS FAR AS WRN WILBARGER AND BAYLOR COUNTIES... AND
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. VIS SAT
SHOWS SOME CONTINUAL CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
RETREATS. GIVEN SUPPORT ALOFT FROM THE STOUT UPPER LOW... EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS TEXOMA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY START A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE REGION... WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION SLOWLY FILLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL OK THROUGH 7 TO 8 PM
CDT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY LONG
LINE FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE OK/KS BORDER DEVELOPING THROUGH 8PM
AND MOVING EASTWARD AS A COMPLEX ACROSS CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH SUNSET... WITH
THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING IN NW OK... WHERE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LINGER RESULTING IN INCREASED LL SHEAR. WITH THAT
SAID... STORMS IN THE NORTH HAVE TRIED THEIR BEST... WITH REPORTS
OF FUNNELS BUT NO TORNADOES. THROUGH SUNSET... HAIL AND WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND GET SOME
SUPPORT FROM A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GETTING BUSY... SO THIS WILL BE SHORT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW CONT TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND SHIFT EAST TOMORROW.
AS THIS OCCURS A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
UNDER THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY. WITH COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW... COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.

WILL THEN SEE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LINGERING REALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. NO REAL STRONG SIGNAL FOR SEVERE... BUT IT IS
GETTING TO BE LATE APRIL... SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  56  72  44  66 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         53  71  42  67 /  30  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  75  45  70 /  40  10   0   0
GAGE OK           48  65  38  65 /  50  20   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  71  42  65 /  70  60  10   0
DURANT OK         57  77  49  70 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
255 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE ENHANCED RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BUFFALO...TO
CHEYENNE...TO MANGUM IN OKLAHOMA...TO QUANAH AND BENJAMIN IN WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS....AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...TO OKLAHOMA CITY..TO
ARDMORE. THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS IN
A SLIGHT RISK.

TIMING...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS TO TENNIS BALLS...AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID STORM ORGANIZATION...AND HAVE AT TIMES
BECOME SEVERE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN
INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...THOUGH A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE AREAS OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS THEY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST
FOR A TIME FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

EM/MBS/AUSTIN

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