River Flood Warning 52, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
259 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE/EARLY
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ATOKA...ARDMORE...AND SEYMOUR...TEXAS

***AN AMAZING 6.27 INCHES OF RAIN IN TWO HOURS AT LAKE
 KICKAPOO.***

FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z FOR MOST AREAS. MAY EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH IN TIME FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AREAL
FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH AT LEAST 14-15Z.

BY AFTERNOON...8H FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS/WESTERN KANSAS.

OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MORE SEVERE STORMS WITH FLOODING RAIN
IS LIKELY...AS A TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  53  66  54 /  40  20  10  30
HOBART OK         67  52  66  54 /  20  20  20  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  57  69  57 /  40  50  30  50
GAGE OK           62  47  64  50 /  10  10  10  60
PONCA CITY OK     66  50  66  51 /  30  10  10  20
DURANT OK         80  59  71  59 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ007-008-012>014-
     016>048-050>052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-210215-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
913 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A SAYRE TO HOBART TO
PURCELL TO HOLDENVILLE LINE. WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...ALTUS...
ARDMORE...ADA....DURANT...VERNON AND SEYMOUR TEXAS AREAS ARE
IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TIMING...
BEFORE 2 AM TONIGHT IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

MAIN IMPACTS...
FLOODING RAINFALL...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH...
A FEW TORNADOES...

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY. THESE
SUPERCELLS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FORM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BRINGING SOME REPORTS
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS
WELL.

ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 2 AM TONIGHT...THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THOUGH SOME
STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
TONIGHT.

.FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.FLOODING...
SOME RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR FLOOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. ADDITIONAL RAINS
THROUGH THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WILL EXACERBATE THE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
205 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

TXZ084-087>090-200730-
CLAY TX-KNOX TX-ARCHER TX-BAYLOR TX-FOARD TX-
205 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLAY...EASTERN KNOX...
ARCHER...BAYLOR AND SOUTHEASTERN FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 202 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES WEST OF FORESTBURG TO NEAR RED SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...SCOTLAND...WINDTHORST...BELLEVUE...
MEGARGEL...GOREE...MANKINS...RED SPRINGS...LAKE ARROWHEAD...
NEWPORT...BLUEGROVE...LAKE KEMP...DUNDEE...MABELLE...LAKE KICKAPOO...
WESTOVER...BOMARTON...VERA AND SOUTHERN LAKE DIVERSION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9953 3377 9958 3380 9798 3347 9798
      3347 9842 3340 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0702Z 287DEG 34KT 3354 9767 3359 9938

AUSTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
207 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OKZ046-047-050>052-200745-
CARTER OK-BRYAN OK-LOVE OK-MARSHALL OK-JOHNSTON OK-
207 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...WEST
CENTRAL BRYAN...LOVE...MARSHALL AND SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 205 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR ARDMORE TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARIETTA TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MUENSTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARDMORE...MADILL...TISHOMINGO...MARIETTA...LONE GROVE...KINGSTON...
DICKSON...MANNSVILLE...RAVIA...THACKERVILLE...OVERBROOK...LAKE
TEXOMA...RUSSETT...LEBANON...LITTLE CITY...WOODVILLE...LAKE MURRAY...
BURNEYVILLE...WILLIS AND CARTWRIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3376 9719 3392 9721 3382 9739 3422 9721
      3434 9662 3387 9654 3383 9659 3389 9659
      3392 9667 3384 9670 3383 9676 3387 9689
      3396 9692 3395 9698 3385 9702 3385 9709
      3382 9705 3372 9712
TIME...MOT...LOC 0705Z 270DEG 24KT 3413 9714 3388 9716 3362 9747

AUSTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
213 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OKZ043-047-048-051-052-200745-
ATOKA OK-COAL OK-BRYAN OK-MARSHALL OK-JOHNSTON OK-
213 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATOKA...SOUTHEASTERN COAL...
NORTHWESTERN BRYAN...NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 210 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
5 MILES EAST OF STRINGTOWN TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILBURN...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZED HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURANT...ATOKA...CADDO...WAPANUCKA...STRINGTOWN...LEHIGH...SILO...
MILBURN...TUSHKA...CANEY...KENEFIC...MEAD...ARMSTRONG...LANE...
NIDA...COLEMAN...FILLMORE...DAISY...BOGGY DEPOT PARK AND BENTLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9578 3416 9578 3416 9598 3412 9594
      3408 9594 3398 9655 3436 9665 3460 9580
      3459 9567 3451 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 258DEG 18KT 3447 9596 3428 9659

AUSTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
246 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

TXZ084-087>090-200830-
CLAY TX-KNOX TX-ARCHER TX-BAYLOR TX-FOARD TX-
246 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLAY...EASTERN KNOX...
ARCHER...BAYLOR AND SOUTHERN FOARD COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

AT 243 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR BOWIE TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MUNDAY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
FLASH FLOODING...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...MUNDAY...SCOTLAND...WINDTHORST...BELLEVUE...
MEGARGEL...GOREE...RED SPRINGS...VERA...LAKE ARROWHEAD...NEWPORT...
BLUEGROVE...DUNDEE...MABELLE...LAKE KICKAPOO...WESTOVER...
RHINELAND...BOMARTON AND SOUTHERN LAKE KEMP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9968 3374 9964 3376 9798 3347 9798
      3347 9842 3340 9842
TIME...MOT...LOC 0743Z 279DEG 23KT 3355 9786 3348 9959

AUSTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OKZ043-047-048-051-052-200830-
ATOKA OK-COAL OK-BRYAN OK-MARSHALL OK-JOHNSTON OK-
248 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ATOKA...SOUTHEASTERN COAL...
BRYAN...MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM
CDT...

AT 247 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR MOYERS TO NEAR LITTLE CITY TO 8 MILES WEST OF POTTSBORO...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
FLASH FLOODING...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURANT...MADILL...ATOKA...KINGSTON...COLBERT...CADDO...BOKCHITO...
ACHILLE...STRINGTOWN...BENNINGTON...SILO...TUSHKA...CANEY...
KENEFIC...KEMP...MEAD...ARMSTRONG...HENDRIX...LANE AND NIDA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9578 3416 9578 3416 9598 3394 9593
      3384 9601 3384 9615 3376 9618 3377 9629
      3369 9636 3378 9643 3385 9663 3390 9659
      3392 9667 3382 9675 3387 9689 3409 9682
      3460 9580 3459 9567 3451 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 274DEG 36KT 3433 9565 3405 9659 3376 9681

AUSTIN

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