River Flood Warning 84, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1126 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONCE THE RAIN STARTS WIND SPEEDS START TO DIMINISH. WILL
UPDATE TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE WIND ADVISORY. HEAVY RAIN WITH THE LINE
IS PRODUCING SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...MEMPHIS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD A GUST OF 43 MPH BEFORE NOON...ONE OF
THE STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE IN THE MIDSOUTH. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS IN THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 HAVE BEEN COMMON AND
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT.

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RADAR TRENDS. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND 5-6 PM AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. THIS
LINE DOES HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...AND SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC ENERGY IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE RESULT OF A
70+KT LOW LEVEL JET. MANY TIMES WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
BALANCE THE DYNAMIC ENERGY WE SEE UPDRAFTS TORN APART...HOWEVER
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO BALANCE THE ACTUAL SHEAR
ALLOWING STORMS TO MAINTAIN HEALTHY UPDRAFTS. THESE WINDS HAVE
ALSO USHERED DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LITTLE ROCK MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ON THEIR 18Z BALLOON LAUNCH. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45KT WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY BETWEEN 300 AND
400M^2/S^2. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY...AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT...WE MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LAST
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER EVEN BEFORE THEN...DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH. RAIN SHOWERS
MAY LINGER IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS LIKELY.

WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MAYBE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY MAY FALL TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS AS THE RAIN
MOVES THROUGH. CONDS WILL IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. VERY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS AT
KMKL/KTUP AHEAD OF THE RAIN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER THE INITIAL LINE PASSES THOUGH KMKL/KTUP THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT EXPECT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
AREAWIDE. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...LIGHTER AT KTUP.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-DECATUR-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1241 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

MSZ015-022>024-180730-
CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-PONTOTOC MS-MONROE MS-
1241 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 130 AM CST FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 1240 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO 50
MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR VARDAMAN...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HOUSTON... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...CHICKASAW...SOUTH CENTRAL PONTOTOC
AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3412 8918 3402 8859 3381 8880 3381 8893
      3375 8893 3375 8903 3374 8904 3374 8919
      3372 8919 3372 8928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 213DEG 37KT 3379 8919

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
151 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

MSZ016-017-023-024-180815-
LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-CHICKASAW MS-MONROE MS-
151 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 215 AM CST FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
EAST CENTRAL CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 150 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH
WAS LOCATED OVER PRAIRIE...OR 9 MILES WEST OF ABERDEEN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LEE...SOUTHWESTERN ITAWAMBA...EAST CENTRAL
CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3368 8850 3368 8852 3377 8872 3381 8872
      3381 8878 3421 8858 3409 8820 3404 8821
      3367 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0750Z 213DEG 46KT 3381 8871

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

MSZ024-181030-
MONROE MS-
346 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 430 AM CST FOR...

EASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 346 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS TO 45 MPH
WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBUS AFB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN MONROE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3367 8850 3367 8849 3368 8850 3368 8855
      3408 8837 3406 8821 3375 8825 3375 8832
      3372 8833 3369 8837 3369 8839 3367 8842
      3368 8843 3366 8846 3366 8850 3365 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0946Z 202DEG 37KT 3365 8852