Flash Flood Warning 104, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
955 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE
LINE BUT ONCE THE RAIN STARTS WIND SPEEDS START TO DIMINISH. WILL
UPDATE TO REMOVE THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE WIND ADVISORY. HEAVY RAIN WITH THE LINE
IS PRODUCING SOME FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...MEMPHIS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD A GUST OF 43 MPH BEFORE NOON...ONE OF
THE STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE IN THE MIDSOUTH. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS IN THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 HAVE BEEN COMMON AND
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT.

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RADAR TRENDS. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND 5-6 PM AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. THIS
LINE DOES HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...AND SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC ENERGY IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE RESULT OF A
70+KT LOW LEVEL JET. MANY TIMES WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
BALANCE THE DYNAMIC ENERGY WE SEE UPDRAFTS TORN APART...HOWEVER
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO BALANCE THE ACTUAL SHEAR
ALLOWING STORMS TO MAINTAIN HEALTHY UPDRAFTS. THESE WINDS HAVE
ALSO USHERED DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LITTLE ROCK MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ON THEIR 18Z BALLOON LAUNCH. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45KT WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY BETWEEN 300 AND
400M^2/S^2. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY...AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT...WE MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LAST
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER EVEN BEFORE THEN...DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH. RAIN SHOWERS
MAY LINGER IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS LIKELY.

WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MAYBE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY MAY FALL TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

30

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

A LINE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS AS THE LINE
MOVES THROUGH AND THEN MVFR CONDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER IN
MODERATE RAIN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS EAST. VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. VERY GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 40 KTS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER THE LINE PASSES THOUGH STILL
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-12 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-50 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WEDNESDAY.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CRITTENDEN-
     MISSISSIPPI.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-DECATUR-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1000 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-190600-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1000 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A
TIPTONVILLE TENNESSEE TO CHARLESTON MISSISSIPPI LINE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS
RETURNING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GERMANTOWN              35.09N 89.79W
11/17/2015                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN GERMANTOWN.

&&

ZDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
859 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG UNION CITY              36.42N 89.05W
11/17/2015                   OBION              TN   PUBLIC

            STRONG WINDS ESTIMATED AT 55 MPH HAVE TAKEN DOWN SEVERAL
            TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS OBION COUNTY.

&&

ZDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1019 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JACKSON                 35.63N 88.83W
11/17/2015                   MADISON            TN   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES KNOCKED DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES.
            MEASURED WIND GUST OF 63 MPH.

&&

SJM