Alert archive / Mississippi / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Memphis, TN

November 17, 2015DeSoto County, Mississippi; Shelby County, Tennessee

NWS Memphis, TN issued this flash flood warning at Nov 17, 2015, 8:30 PM CST for DeSoto County, Mississippi; Shelby County, Tennessee. It was in force for 4 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Nov 17, 2015, 8:30 PM CST (02:30 UTC)
Expired: Nov 18, 2015, 12:00 AM CST
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties DeSoto County, MS, Shelby County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Nov 17, 10:00 PM CST	FLASH FLOOD	1 E Lake Cormorant, MS	BRANTLEY RD NEAR HWY 61 WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLODING

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 90 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 27 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 705 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -212 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -246 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

982 
WGUS54 KMEG 180230
FFWMEG
MSC033-TNC157-180600-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0103.151118T0230Z-151118T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
830 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
  SHELBY COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST

* AT 824 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
  OCCURRED OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE WARNING
  AREA. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE WARNING AREA AND PRODUCE
  AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  BARTLETT...SOUTHAVEN...COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN...OLIVE BRANCH...
  HORN LAKE...HERNANDO...MILLINGTON...MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE
  PARK...CORDOVA...T O FULLER STATE PARK...LAKELAND...ARLINGTON...
  WALLS...EUDORA...WHITEHAVEN...LYNCHBURG...EADS...SOUTHEAST MEMPHIS
  AND FRAYSER.

THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES LAST
NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF PRODUCING
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE URBAN AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 9029 3504 9020 3513 9016 3514 9006
      3518 9012 3523 9008 3530 9017 3531 9011
      3540 9004 3539 8965 3500 8964 3499 8972
      3494 8972 3471 9004 3476 9014 3472 9020
      3486 9020 3486 9028 3494 9024 3499 9031

$$

1 follow-up statement

667 
WGUS74 KMEG 180554
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

MSC033-TNC157-180602-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-151118T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DESOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
1154 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DESOTO AND SHELBY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 1200 AM CST...

THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT
THOUGH CAUTION IS ENCOURAGED OVERNIGHT DUE TO PONDING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3504 9029 3504 9020 3513 9016 3514 9006
      3518 9012 3523 9008 3530 9017 3531 9011
      3540 9004 3539 8965 3500 8964 3499 8972
      3494 8972 3471 9004 3476 9014 3472 9020
      3486 9020 3486 9028 3494 9024 3499 9031

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Nov 17, 6:22 PM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 17, 6:22 PM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...MEMPHIS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAD A GUST OF 43 MPH BEFORE NOON...ONE OF
THE STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE IN THE MIDSOUTH. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS IN THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 HAVE BEEN COMMON AND
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT.

HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RADAR TRENDS. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS AROUND 5-6 PM AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. THIS
LINE DOES HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...AND SHOULD DECREASE FURTHER AFTER
SUNSET. HOWEVER...DYNAMIC ENERGY IS IMPRESSIVE AS THE RESULT OF A
70+KT LOW LEVEL JET. MANY TIMES WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO
BALANCE THE DYNAMIC ENERGY WE SEE UPDRAFTS TORN APART...HOWEVER
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO BALANCE THE ACTUAL SHEAR
ALLOWING STORMS TO MAINTAIN HEALTHY UPDRAFTS. THESE WINDS HAVE
ALSO USHERED DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. DEW POINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LITTLE ROCK MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ON THEIR 18Z BALLOON LAUNCH. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45KT WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY BETWEEN 300 AND
400M^2/S^2. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY...AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT...WE MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LAST
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 2-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA BY
MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER EVEN BEFORE THEN...DYNAMICS WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH. RAIN SHOWERS
MAY LINGER IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS LIKELY.

WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL MAYBE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY MAY FALL TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S AREA WIDE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

A LINE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS AS THE LINE
MOVES THROUGH AND THEN MVFR CONDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER IN
MODERATE RAIN. CONDS WILL IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS EAST. VFR CONDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. VERY GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UP TO 40 KTS AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER THE LINE PASSES THOUGH STILL
REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-12 KTS WITH OCNL HIGHER GUSTS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-50 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WEDNESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-DECATUR-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 17, 8:05 PM CST, 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
805 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-181400-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
805 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY RESULT IN FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS
RETURNING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

KRM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 17, 4:18 PM CST, 4 hours 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
418 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG SARAH                   34.60N 90.13W
11/17/2015                   TATE               MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE.

&&

ZDM

Local storm report, Nov 17, 4:19 PM CST, 4 hours 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
419 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG FRAYSER                 35.22N 89.97W
11/17/2015                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TREE DOWN AT STEPHANIE AND UNIVERSITY IN FRAYSER.

&&

ZDM

Local storm report, Nov 17, 4:20 PM CST, 4 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
420 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MIDTOWN MEMPHIS         35.13N 89.98W
11/17/2015                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT LINDEN AVE AND FLORENCE ST.

&&

ZDM

Local storm report, Nov 17, 4:24 PM CST, 4 hours 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
424 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 S MIDTOWN MEMPHIS     35.06N 89.98W
11/17/2015                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            A TREE FELL ON A CAR AND TOOK OFF PART OF A ROOF NEAR
            GETWELL AT RHODES.

&&

ZDM

Local storm report, Nov 17, 5:43 PM CST, 2 hours 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
543 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG GERMANTOWN              35.09N 89.79W
11/17/2015                   SHELBY             TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN GERMANTOWN.

&&

ZDM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 17, 7:36 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Coahoma, Tunica	3 hr
Nov 17, 10:27 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Panola, Tate	3 hr
Nov 17, 10:33 PM CST	Areal Flood Warning	MEG	Coahoma, Tunica	6 hr
Nov 18, 12:41 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chickasaw	49 min
Nov 18, 1:11 AM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Lee, Pontotoc, Union	23 min
Nov 18, 1:51 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Monroe	24 min
Nov 18, 3:46 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Monroe	44 min
Nov 18, 4:04 AM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Monroe	26 min
Nov 18, 4:26 AM CST	River Flood Warning	MEG	Tate, Tunica	22 hr
Nov 18, 12:48 PM CST	River Flood Warning	MEG	Lowndes, Monroe	49 hr
Nov 18, 3:52 AM CST	River Flood Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby	15 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2015 Flash Flood Warnings in Tennessee, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.