Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
107 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main concern this forecast period are thunderstorms expected to
affect area TAF sites beginning later this afternoon. Have relied
heavily upon high resolution guidance to fine-tune timing of
convection at the terminals, though timing for KCNM and KHOB
/around 21Z/ as well as KMAF and KINK /around 00Z/ from the
previous TAF looks to be on track. Models indicate that greatest
concentration of storms will be across southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, thus have maintained periods of prevailing TSRA
at those TAF sites, and just handled KPEQ and KFST with TEMPOs for
now. Storms that develop could become severe, capable of
large hail and high winds, as well as torrential rainfall, which
could reduce visibilities into IFR/LIFR territory. As always, the
devil is in the details, and exact timing/vsby restrictions will
likely be handled with amendments through the evening.
Otherwise, gusty southeast winds look to continue, with higher
variable gusts possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move
east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
By Tuesday this low will move over the 4 corners region and cross
the Rockies early Wednesday.  After it passes east another strong
low over the Pacific NW will dig down the West Coast and keep SW
flow over the region into the weekend.  Overall temperatures will be
near to above normal through the week.

There was good development of storms across the west yesterday and
some of them were strong but they did stay below severe levels.  The
atmosphere remains unstable as scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue early this morning across the Trans Pecos region.  Expect
storm coverage to increase through the day but especially during the
late afternoon into evening as a shortwave... daytime heating and
upslope flow combine.  Will have the potential for both severe wx
and flooding today.

Various model qpf not as in agreement as I would like but some are
developing heavy precip tonight.  With SE flow will have increasing
low level moisture with dewpts trying to climb into the 60s so
potential for heavy rain exists.  Model soundings at MAF show by 12z
this morning PW will climb to over 1 inch and remain elevated for
the next 24 hrs.  Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for
Southeast New Mexico and the Western Permian Basin but not expand it
at this time.  Could see Dawson county possibly added at a later
time.

As far as severe threat SPC has a slight risk over the western 2/3
of the area today and the eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday.  Main
hazards today will be large hail and damaging wind... but SPC points
out potential for very large hail.  With supercells expected
isolated tornadoes possible.  Have mention of severe in today but
models are trying to blow precip out of the area quickly Tuesday so
have not included severe wording yet on Tuesday.  The dryline looks
better Tuesday but does not match up with projected qpf.  The dry
line should only move as far east as a Hobbs to Marathon line by
late afternoon so potential for storms to develop farther west of
model qpf should continue through the day.  Any of these storms that
develop on the dryline may quickly become strong to severe and will
highlight in the HWO.

With more upper lows to the west and SW flow aloft potential for
additional storms mainly over the east will continue each day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.

&&

84

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
147 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
147 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 /1247 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE
MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.

HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
244 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

NMZ029-033-034-TXZ045-042015-
GAINES-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
144 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL LEA AND NORTHWESTERN GAINES COUNTIES UNTIL 215
PM MDT/315 PM CDT/...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER
MONUMENT AT 143 PM MDT/243 PM CDT/...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IF SEVERE WEATHER IS
OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR
ROOM.

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING/800
PM CDT MONDAY EVENING/ FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT MONDAY EVENING/800 PM
CDT MONDAY EVENING/ FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3302 10306 3296 10306 3296 10291 3289 10274
      3246 10322 3266 10348 3305 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 219DEG 28KT 3263 10326

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
249 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXZ051-062-042015-
MARTIN-MIDLAND-
249 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN MIDLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER VALLEY VIEW AT 249 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIDLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 10204 3217 10175 3187 10185 3192 10209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 189DEG 19KT 3197 10196