Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

869 
WWUS54 KMAF 050338
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1038 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXC103-371-475-050400-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-150505T0400Z/
CRANE TX-PECOS TX-WARD TX-
1038 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN WARD...NORTH CENTRAL PECOS AND WEST CENTRAL CRANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1033 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IMPERIAL...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IMPERIAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3135 10301 3134 10292 3134 10286 3137 10266
      3126 10260 3111 10255 3107 10274 3106 10302
      3117 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 220DEG 10KT 3131 10276

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

  * Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128 remains in effect until 8 pm
    CDT/7 pm MDT for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New
    Mexico and Culberson and Jeff Davis counties in west Texas.

  * Tornado Watch 129 remains in effect until 8 pm CDT for
    Brewster,Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell, Ward, and
    Winkler counties.

 *  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT
    for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New Mexico and for
    Andrews, Borden, Dawson, and Gaines counties in west Texas.

Little time for discussion owing to impending heavy rainfall/flash
flooding and convective weather threats. CAMs have suggested for
several runs now that a storm (now apparently over northern Jeff Davis
county) will translate east and then begin to turn to the right as
effective shears increase to above 50 kts. Along and south of the
Pecos, there's enough phasing between instability, CAPE, and shear
to promote discrete supercellular structures until at least 01Z.
If there's enough balance between SR inflow and a supercell's
rear flank downdraft, a tornado or three is not out of the
question.

Farther north, multicellular structures are apparent now and we
should see further upscale growth into a west-east trending MCS by
sunset. With increasing moisture (DRT showed +2SD precip water
values this morning) and a strengthening low level jet, a good supply
of moisture will feed these storms. Aloft, a 110 kt+ jet streak
translating eastward across northern Mexico will become difluent
(with one "f") over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Deep layer vertical motion profiles will further support deep
layer lift and efficient rain producers. As such, the flash flood
watch has been extended east to cover areas where forecast
rainfall more than 2" (isolated > 4") are possible tonight.

Should see a bit of a break tomorrow under subsidence in the wake
of the MCS. Low level moisture will be slow to move east, and as
soon as sig insolation can be realized, more convective overturning
is forecast, particularly near the mountains tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

High temperatures will stay close to normal through the week while
lows will be somewhat warmer than normal due to higher low level
moisture content. The best chances for thunderstorms will be across
the eastern Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos each afternoon and
evening; however, wouldn't't be surprised to see PoPs increase
nearer to the mountains as well.

With a focus on the meso-alpha scale today, little changes were
made to the forecast Day 3 and have stayed close to the NAM12 in
the Day 1-3 periods. We did shift PoPs east a bit to marry up
better with HPC guidance.

For graphics on excessive rainfall forecasts from the Weather
Prediction Center, go to http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
and for text http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatchmpd.php

Users can subscribe to the Storm Prediction Center's Twitter feed
using @NWSSPC for latest in Mesoscale Convective Discussions and Watch
Status messages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  81  58  84  /  60  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  81  64  84  /  30  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                57  82  53  85  /  40  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  84  67  86  /  30  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  84  60  86  /  30  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  75  53  79  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   59  79  53  82  /  70  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  78  43  82  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  80  63  84  /  30  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  62  81  62  84  /  40  20  20  20
WINK TX                    65  85  56  87  /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...
     Dawson...Gaines.

&&

84/70

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
147 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
147 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 /1247 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE
MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.

HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXZ058-050200-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
827 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY...10 MILES EAST OF SARAGOSA AT 826 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3121 10349 3107 10331 3086 10352 3098 10368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 220DEG 10KT 3099 10353

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXZ047-050200-
BORDEN-
830 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING EASTERN BORDEN COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF
GAIL AT 830 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10150 3296 10120 3282 10118 3266 10118
      3263 10131 3274 10147
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 220DEG 10KT 3275 10132

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
831 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT STOCKTON           30.89N 102.89W
05/04/2015                   PECOS              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO FEET OF WATER OVER I-10 FROM MILE MARKER 256 INTO
            DICKINSON BLVD

&&

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
851 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXZ058>060-067-050215-
LOVING-WARD-WINKLER-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
851 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING CENTRAL REEVES...NORTHWESTERN WARD...SOUTHEASTERN
LOVING AND SOUTHWESTERN WINKLER COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH
OF THE CITY OF PECOS ALONG HIGHWAY 285 OVER CENTRALREEVES COUNTY AT
851 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 10349 3164 10328 3143 10352 3155 10368
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 220DEG 10KT 3156 10353

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
947 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     HAIL             7 WSW PYOTE             31.50N 103.23W
05/04/2015  E2.50 INCH       WARD               TX   PUBLIC

            ON I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKER 59 AND 62.

&&

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
953 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXZ046-051-050330-
DAWSON-MARTIN-
953 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL MARTIN AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF THREE LEAGUES AT
953 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3273 10200 3257 10169 3232 10194 3241 10210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 209DEG 19KT 3242 10197