Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

789 
WGUS74 KMAF 050301
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1001 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXC115-050430-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150505T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAWSON-
1001 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR
NORTHERN DAWSON COUNTY...

AT 956 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR PUNKIN CENTER...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF LAMESA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. RADAR INDICATES THAT AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAS FALLEN OVER U.S.87 NORTH OF LAMESA DURING THE PAST HOUR..

THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...ARVANA...GRANDVIEW...PUNKIN CENTER...LAMESA MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT AND HANCOCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10220 3296 10171 3275 10171 3276 10220

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

  * Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128 remains in effect until 8 pm
    CDT/7 pm MDT for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New
    Mexico and Culberson and Jeff Davis counties in west Texas.

  * Tornado Watch 129 remains in effect until 8 pm CDT for
    Brewster,Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell, Ward, and
    Winkler counties.

 *  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT
    for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New Mexico and for
    Andrews, Borden, Dawson, and Gaines counties in west Texas.

Little time for discussion owing to impending heavy rainfall/flash
flooding and convective weather threats. CAMs have suggested for
several runs now that a storm (now apparently over northern Jeff Davis
county) will translate east and then begin to turn to the right as
effective shears increase to above 50 kts. Along and south of the
Pecos, there's enough phasing between instability, CAPE, and shear
to promote discrete supercellular structures until at least 01Z.
If there's enough balance between SR inflow and a supercell's
rear flank downdraft, a tornado or three is not out of the
question.

Farther north, multicellular structures are apparent now and we
should see further upscale growth into a west-east trending MCS by
sunset. With increasing moisture (DRT showed +2SD precip water
values this morning) and a strengthening low level jet, a good supply
of moisture will feed these storms. Aloft, a 110 kt+ jet streak
translating eastward across northern Mexico will become difluent
(with one "f") over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Deep layer vertical motion profiles will further support deep
layer lift and efficient rain producers. As such, the flash flood
watch has been extended east to cover areas where forecast
rainfall more than 2" (isolated > 4") are possible tonight.

Should see a bit of a break tomorrow under subsidence in the wake
of the MCS. Low level moisture will be slow to move east, and as
soon as sig insolation can be realized, more convective overturning
is forecast, particularly near the mountains tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

High temperatures will stay close to normal through the week while
lows will be somewhat warmer than normal due to higher low level
moisture content. The best chances for thunderstorms will be across
the eastern Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos each afternoon and
evening; however, wouldn't't be surprised to see PoPs increase
nearer to the mountains as well.

With a focus on the meso-alpha scale today, little changes were
made to the forecast Day 3 and have stayed close to the NAM12 in
the Day 1-3 periods. We did shift PoPs east a bit to marry up
better with HPC guidance.

For graphics on excessive rainfall forecasts from the Weather
Prediction Center, go to http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
and for text http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatchmpd.php

Users can subscribe to the Storm Prediction Center's Twitter feed
using @NWSSPC for latest in Mesoscale Convective Discussions and Watch
Status messages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  81  58  84  /  60  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  81  64  84  /  30  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                57  82  53  85  /  40  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  84  67  86  /  30  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  84  60  86  /  30  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  75  53  79  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   59  79  53  82  /  70  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  78  43  82  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  80  63  84  /  30  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  62  81  62  84  /  40  20  20  20
WINK TX                    65  85  56  87  /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...
     Dawson...Gaines.

&&

84/70

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
147 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
147 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 /1247 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE
MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.

HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
742 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             10 W FORT STOCKTON      30.89N 103.05W
05/04/2015  E1.50 INCH       PECOS              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT THE INTERSECTION IF I-10 AND HIGHWAY 67

&&

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
742 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXZ058-050115-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
742 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SARAGOSA AT 742 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3120 10354 3105 10334 3085 10358 3097 10374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 220DEG 10KT 3098 10359

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
757 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             FORT STOCKTON           30.89N 102.89W
05/04/2015  E1.50 INCH       PECOS              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GOLF BALL TO PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
804 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             FORT STOCKTON           30.89N 102.89W
05/04/2015  E1.75 INCH       PECOS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FALLING AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 285/385 IN MESA VIEW
            NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
818 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      20 W FORT STOCKTON      30.89N 103.22W
05/04/2015                   PECOS              TX   PUBLIC

            WATER FLOWING OVER ACCESS ROAD AT INTERSTATE 10 AT MILE
            MARKER 235

&&

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
822 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             4 S FORT STOCKTON       30.83N 102.89W
05/04/2015  E2.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DH