Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

183 
WGUS74 KMAF 050841
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXC033-415-050930-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-150505T0930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCURRY-BORDEN-
341 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN BORDEN AND NORTHWESTERN SCURRY COUNTIES...

AT 336 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT RAIN PRODUCING POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTHWEST SCURRY 
COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FLUVANNA AND
DERMOTT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 10120 3296 10086 3275 10093 3273 10120

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will still be possible at KMAF, and perhaps KHOB
and KINK, through 05/08Z.  Thereafter, think convection will be
north and east of area terminals.  MVFR ceilings are expected to
affect all area terminals overnight, with some IFR ceilings at
KHOB.  Southerly winds will veer late tonight, become
southwesterly in the morning, and aid in lifting ceilings to VFR
while they scatter out, especially from 05/15Z and after.  Initial
indications are that thunderstorms will affect locations mainly
east of KMAF Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

  * Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128 remains in effect until 8 pm
    CDT/7 pm MDT for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New
    Mexico and Culberson and Jeff Davis counties in west Texas.

  * Tornado Watch 129 remains in effect until 8 pm CDT for
    Brewster,Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell, Ward, and
    Winkler counties.

 *  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT
    for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New Mexico and for
    Andrews, Borden, Dawson, and Gaines counties in west Texas.

Little time for discussion owing to impending heavy rainfall/flash
flooding and convective weather threats. CAMs have suggested for
several runs now that a storm (now apparently over northern Jeff Davis
county) will translate east and then begin to turn to the right as
effective shears increase to above 50 kts. Along and south of the
Pecos, there's enough phasing between instability, CAPE, and shear
to promote discrete supercellular structures until at least 01Z.
If there's enough balance between SR inflow and a supercell's
rear flank downdraft, a tornado or three is not out of the
question.

Farther north, multicellular structures are apparent now and we
should see further upscale growth into a west-east trending MCS by
sunset. With increasing moisture (DRT showed +2SD precip water
values this morning) and a strengthening low level jet, a good supply
of moisture will feed these storms. Aloft, a 110 kt+ jet streak
translating eastward across northern Mexico will become difluent
(with one "f") over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Deep layer vertical motion profiles will further support deep
layer lift and efficient rain producers. As such, the flash flood
watch has been extended east to cover areas where forecast
rainfall more than 2" (isolated > 4") are possible tonight.

Should see a bit of a break tomorrow under subsidence in the wake
of the MCS. Low level moisture will be slow to move east, and as
soon as sig insolation can be realized, more convective overturning
is forecast, particularly near the mountains tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

High temperatures will stay close to normal through the week while
lows will be somewhat warmer than normal due to higher low level
moisture content. The best chances for thunderstorms will be across
the eastern Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos each afternoon and
evening; however, wouldn't't be surprised to see PoPs increase
nearer to the mountains as well.

With a focus on the meso-alpha scale today, little changes were
made to the forecast Day 3 and have stayed close to the NAM12 in
the Day 1-3 periods. We did shift PoPs east a bit to marry up
better with HPC guidance.

For graphics on excessive rainfall forecasts from the Weather
Prediction Center, go to http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
and for text http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatchmpd.php

Users can subscribe to the Storm Prediction Center's Twitter feed
using @NWSSPC for latest in Mesoscale Convective Discussions and Watch
Status messages.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
147 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-051900-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
147 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 /1247 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE
MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS.

HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1023 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     HAIL             7 SSW GRANDFALLS        31.25N 102.90W
05/04/2015  M1.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 1.17 INCHES WITH A MICROMETER.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1034 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             2 W PYOTE               31.54N 103.16W
05/04/2015  E1.25 INCH       WARD               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HALF DOLLAR HAIL COVERING I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 58
            AND 66

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1118 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXZ067-068-050445-
CRANE-WARD-
1118 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN WARD AND NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTIES
UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MONAHANS AT 1118 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 10292 3165 10284 3164 10275 3164 10260
      3158 10255 3138 10279 3150 10295
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 220DEG 10KT 3151 10279

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

TXZ047-050515-
BORDEN-
1138 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 15-20 MPH ACROSS
CENTRAL BORDEN COUNTY TOWARD GAIL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 10117 3254 10143 3258 10162 3272 10168
      3296 10155 3297 10155 3297 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 219DEG 12KT 3272 10150

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
130 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

NMZ028-050700-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
1230 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 55
MPH WINDS AFFECTING CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 100 AM MDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
CAVERN CITY AIR TERMINAL AT 1229 AM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM SHOULD IMPACT CARLSBAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 10448 3255 10434 3236 10408 3214 10433
      3231 10454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 220DEG 10KT 3232 10439

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
131 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ047-048-052-053-050715-
HOWARD-MITCHELL-SCURRY-BORDEN-
131 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM
AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN HOWARD...NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...SOUTHEASTERN
BORDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN SCURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF VINCENT
AT 131 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED OR A
WARNING IS ISSUED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3286 10110 3259 10086 3241 10130 3259 10145
TIME...MOT...LOC 0631Z 237DEG 22KT 3256 10128