Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Storms are currently developing and moving across the area with some
storms becoming severe.  A Tornado Watch is in effect for the whole
CWA.  There is an abundance of moisture in the atmosphere with CAPE
values up to 4000 J/kg in some areas.  Bulk shear values are also
around 35 kts or higher and mid-level lapse rates are not quite as
impressive as earlier but still good.  Shortwaves are also expected
to move over the area today at the base of an upper level trough
that is moving over the Upper Midwest.  Given these conditions,
expect thunderstorms to continue to develop and move across the CWA
through this evening into the overnight hours.  Some of these storms
may become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain
being the main threats although an isolated tornado is possible. The
GFS and ECMWF indicate heavy rain across the eastern half of the CWA
at 06z tonight but the NAM12 only has a little precipitation across
southern portions of Terrell County.  Decided to favor the GFS and
ECMWF and issued a Flash Flood Watch until 10z for the southeastern
Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. The precipitation is
expected to mostly be out of the area by 12z Friday.

The upper level trough will still be over the Upper Midwest on
Friday and a dryline will be across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos by Friday afternoon.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values
of 3000 to 4000 east of the dryline during the afternoon and
mid-level lapse rates of 8.5+ degrees C/km across most of the CWA.
Bulk shear values do not look as impressive with values only getting
up to 30 kts across a few areas with lesser values elsewhere.  Given
these conditions, thunderstorms with severe weather will be possible
again on Friday although do not expect widespread thunderstorm
development with the models only producing isolated convection.
Temperatures on Friday are expected to warm up to near normal with a
surface trough developing across southeast New Mexico and along/west
of the Upper Trans Pecos.

A cold front associated with the passing upper trough will move into
the area on Saturday.  Increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected along this front as lift over the area
increases.  Heavy rain may be a concern with this precipitation with
great moisture and lift present.  Temperatures will cool on Saturday
by about 10 degrees from the previous day behind the front with the
increase in cloud cover and precipitation.  Rain and storms will
remain possible across the higher terrain on Sunday afternoon as a
result of the front.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain
cool as the surface ridge will be near the area.  Rain chances
will still be present but will significantly decrease Monday through
the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds over the region.
Temperatures will also increase to near normal values during this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  91  66  78  /  50  20  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              68  88  66  78  /  70  20  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                60  94  63  81  /  20  10  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  70  91  72  83  /  60  20  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  94  65  83  /  60  20  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  89  59  74  /  10  10  20  30
HOBBS NM                   62  90  61  75  /  40  20  50  30
MARFA TX                   53  89  56  80  /  20  20  20  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  89  67  80  /  60  20  50  50
ODESSA TX                  67  89  66  80  /  60  20  50  50
WINK TX                    66  95  68  83  /  40  20  40  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Crane...Ector...Glasscock...Midland...Pecos...Reagan...
     Terrell...Upton.

&&

72/80

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-291930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 /120 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND...
AND A FEW TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO UNTIL 8 PM CDT/7 PM MDT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WIND...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND... AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED NOW ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TORNADO          21 NW GAIL              32.98N 101.71W
05/28/2015                   LYNN               TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
413 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             25 WNW FORT STOCKTON    31.03N 103.28W
05/28/2015  E1.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ANDREW.ARNOLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ058-075-282145-
PECOS-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
418 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN PECOS AND SOUTHEASTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL REEVES COUNTY AT
418 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3131 10342 3125 10321 3098 10317 3092 10352
      3105 10366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 241DEG 18KT 3105 10348

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
431 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ075-282200-
PECOS-
431 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF IMPERIAL AT
431 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3129 10276 3128 10275 3128 10274 3131 10272
      3133 10267 3127 10260 3127 10254 3100 10237
      3095 10302 3115 10309
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 257DEG 23KT 3107 10289

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