Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect thunderstorm development will continue to expand through
the afternoon... have included mention in most TAFs. Very gusty
wind... hail... and MVFR cigs possible near any storm. Otherwise
expect a return of stratus overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Storms have quieted down this morning after a fairly active
Wednesday evening. Looking for a repeat this afternoon with
possibly more widespread convection than what we saw yesterday. A
dampening upper trough will provide enough lift for showers and
thunderstorms to develop as it moves across the region later today.
The dryline will be held back west across SE NM again today with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s east of the boundary. Sfc heating
combined with a moist environment will lead to a strong instability
axis developing across the Permian Basin and SE NM south to the Big
Bend. CAPE values are expected to exceed 3000 J/kg with lapse rates
near 8 C/km. Deep layer shear near 35 kts will be more than enough
to support organized convection across the area. Several clusters of
strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.
These clusters may eventually form into one larger complex and move
east across the region overnight. Heavy rain and localized flooding
will also be a possibility due to a mostly saturated ground and
PWATs climbing over an inch.

Friday should be mostly dry and very warm as we await a cold front
moving south across the Plains. This front will arrive Friday night
and Saturday morning with another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Models are hinting that a convective system will form
across the TX Panhandle Friday night and sweep across the northern
half of the area. Could see more severe weather and almost certainly
some heavy rain with this system. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed
if model trends continue. This convection will likely give the front
an extra push into the Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. For this
reason will carry highest PoPs in these areas for Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will cool well below normal Saturday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s.

Long term models are showing an upper level pattern change beginning
early next week. An upper ridge, albeit weak, looks to build in from
the west. If this holds, our region along with the rest of the
Southern Plains will get a break from precipitation. A few
isolated storms can't be ruled out but the majority of us will
stay dry. Temperatures will also be on the way up with highs
likely pushing well into the 90s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-290800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
300 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015 /200 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.  ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.  ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
104 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

TXZ058-074-281830-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
104 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 130
PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF BALMORHEA AT 103
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO
50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3131 10385 3126 10357 3103 10357 3087 10399
      3101 10411
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 231DEG 24KT 3102 10396

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NMZ033-034-TXZ045-050-281930-
GAINES-ANDREWS-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
101 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN ANDREWS...SOUTHEASTERN LEA AND SOUTHWESTERN GAINES
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MDT/230 PM CDT/...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF EUNICE AT 101 PM
MDT/201 PM CDT/...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT THURSDAY
EVENING/800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING/ FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 10302 3228 10277 3211 10324 3229 10338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 233DEG 19KT 3228 10320

STROBIN