Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
652 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concerns for the next 24 hours is TSRA this
evening and low cigs early Thursday morning. Currently have gusty SE
winds at all but PEQ where erratic thunderstorm winds prevail. Have
some severe convection affecting the region this evening and will
continue mention of TSRA for the next couple of hours at PEQ and INK
then arrive at HOB around 01Z. May see convection hang around for a
while and will continue to monitor for any changes to current TAFs.
Large hail is the main threat with these storms although heavy
rainfall will likely result in a brief period of low vis. Overnight,
gusts should subside however sustained speeds are expected to remain
somewhat elevated. Increasing moisture will result in low stratus
affecting all but maybe PEQ during the early morning hours Thursday.
Otherwise, cigs will lift and scatter by mid morning and VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The dryline is along the terrain of the Davis and Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon.  An upper level trough is over the western
conus with the CWA under west to southwest flow aloft.  A surface
trough is developing across far West Texas and a shortwave trough is
expected to move over the area later this afternoon.  Upper level
lift is expected to be rather impressive later today according to
the NAM80 with 500 mb omega values enhanced over the Trans Pecos and
a vorticity maximum over this same area.  Mid-level lapse rates will
be good this afternoon and early evening with values of 8+ degrees
C/km for some places.  Surface CAPE values according to the NAM12
are very impressive this afternoon with many places having values of
4000+ J/kg.  Bulk shear values of 35 - 40 kts on the NAM12 in
addition to the previously mentioned conditions will be sufficient
for severe thunderstorms to develop beginning this afternoon.  High
temperatures for today are expected to be similar to yesterday.

The storms that develop today are expected to continue into the
overnight period.  CAPE values will decrease throughout the night
but will still remain good, and upper lift will still be enhanced
over the area as shortwaves move overhead so severe storms will
remain possible through the night.  Mid-level lapse rates will be 8+
degrees C/km across a large portion of the area by 12z Thursday
providing great instability.  It is possible that an MCS similar to
Monday morning could develop during the early to mid morning hours
on Thursday.  Severe weather will likely develop/continue into
Thursday afternoon given good mid-level lapse rates, widespread CAPE
values of 4000+ J/kg, and sufficient bulk shear.  Storm development
during the afternoon hours on Thursday will depend on whatever
develops during the early morning hours and the
boundaries/conditions left as a result of this convection.  The 12z
run of the NAM12 doesn't have any precipitation across the CWA at
06z Friday, but both the GFS and ECMWF indicate very heavy precip
across the eastern half of the CWA at this time.  Might need a Flash
Flood Watch for this time period but do not have enough confidence
to issue one at this point.

Rain and storm chances will decrease by Friday afternoon but will
still be possible given that a dryline will be present.  A cold
front associated with an upper trough moving over the Upper Midwest
will push into the CWA Saturday morning.  Lift along this front will
once again increase precipitation chances across the area for
Saturday.  Highs on Saturday will cool into the mid 70s to mid 80s
across the area as a result of this front and the associated
precipitation.  Rain and storms will remain possible across the
higher terrain on Sunday afternoon as a result of the front.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain cool as the surface
ridge will be across the area.  Rain chances will still be present
but will significantly decrease Monday through Wednesday of next
week as an upper ridge builds over the region.  Temperatures will
also increase to near normal values during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

27

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
333 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-282045-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
333 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 /233 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...ARE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LOOK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
818 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             HOBBS                   32.73N 103.16W
05/27/2015  M1.75 INCH       LEA                NM   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
820 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             HOBBS                   32.73N 103.16W
05/27/2015  E1.00 INCH       LEA                NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            705 TO 715 MDT, PEA SIZE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WEST
            HOBBS IN HEAVY RAIN.

&&

CMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
826 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             HOBBS                   32.73N 103.16W
05/27/2015  E1.25 INCH       LEA                NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            717 MDT, QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

CMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
852 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             NW BELDING              30.79N 103.03W
05/27/2015  E1.75 INCH       PECOS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT THE FIRESTONE TEST
            TRACK.

&&

CMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
911 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             8 NNW BELDING           30.90N 103.08W
05/27/2015  E1.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   PUBLIC

&&

AMBER.HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
921 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E FORT STOCKTON       30.89N 102.87W
05/27/2015                   PECOS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOW ROTATING CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE STORM.

&&

CMR