River Flood Warning 4, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

725 
WGUS84 KMAF 160725
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N affecting Presidio County
  Rio Grande above Presidio 6WNW affecting Presidio County
  
High flows on the Rio Grande River near Candelaria and Presido 
occurred yesterday due to runoff from heavy rainfall. The river  
gauge 6 WNW of Presidio and 3 N of Candelaria crested below flood
stage yesterday, and are expected to continue to fall barring 
any additional heavy rainfall.   

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Additional information is available at:  www.weather.gov/midland

This is the last statement on this event.  

&&

TXC377-160755-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150617T0012Z/
/CDET2.1.ER.150616T0357Z.150616T0400Z.150616T0401Z.NO/
225 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande at Candelaria 3N.
* At  1AM Tuesday the stage was 5.9 feet (1.8 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at 4:15 PM Monday.
* Flood stage is 8.5 feet (2.6 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.6 feet (1.7 meters)
  by tomorrow morning.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Tue   Tue   Wed   Wed
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   7.5  8.5    5.9   Tue  1 AM   5.5   5.5   5.5   5.6

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Tue   Tue   Wed   Wed
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Candelaria 3N   2.3  2.6    1.8   Tue  1 AM   1.7   1.7   1.7   1.7

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10504 3069 10492 3022 10463 2980 10451 2975 10465


$$

TXC377-160755-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150616T1914Z/
/PIOT2.1.ER.150615T2351Z.150616T0030Z.150616T0101Z.NO/
225 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rio Grande above Presidio 6WNW.
* At  1AM Tuesday the stage was 6.3 feet (1.9 meters).
* Fell below flood stage at 1:00 PM Monday.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet (2.7 meters).
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 4.7 feet (1.4 meters)
  by tomorrow morning.

&&

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (feet):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Tue   Tue   Wed   Wed
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Presidio 6WNW   6.0  9.0    6.3   Tue  1 AM   4.7   4.7   4.7   4.7

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts (meters):

                   Bf  Fld  Observed                  Forecast
Location          Stg  Stg  Stage   Day  Time   Tue   Tue   Wed   Wed
                                                1PM   7PM   1AM   7AM
  Presidio 6WNW   1.8  2.7    1.9   Tue  1 AM   1.4   1.4   1.4   1.4

&&

LAT...LON 2975 10465 2980 10451 2963 10437 2951 10446 2957 10453

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ongoing storms are mostly in between TAF sites and we mostly omitted
the mention of TSRA, except for a brief TEMPO group at KINK.
Otherwise a TEMPO MVFR CIG will be possible at HOB/MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of high pressure, one over the eastern Pacific and the
other on the east coast, are leaving Texas under a weak trough of
low pressure. Normally this setup provides enough instability so
daytime heating causes scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop but today is a little different. A mesoscale convective
vortex (MCV) left over from convection last night remains
stationary near Big Lake and is spreading cloud cover across most
of the Permian Basin keeping surface temperatures down and
increasing low level stability. There are some thunderstorms
currently forming farther west in the Davis Mountains where cloud
cover has been much less, and there are also storms forming from
San Angelo to Sonora where upper lift on the eastern side of the
MCV is overcoming the surface stability. Additional development is
expected in the eastern Permian Basin this afternoon and evening
but slow storm movement will likely prevent it from spreading into
the western Permian Basin or southeastern New Mexico. 0-6km shear
is not high today so convection should be pulse type and mostly
remain below severe levels though slow storm motion could cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper trough will remain in place tomorrow leaving the eastern
Permian Basin and Davis Mountains once again as the locations most
favored for rainfall. A tropical system moving into Texas Tuesday
could actually bring drier conditions to west Texas if the system
is strong enough to induce subsidence outside the main circulation
though this seems doubtfull given the close proximity to the coast
already.

High pressure over the eastern Pacific will build east into Texas
through the end of the week, increasing subsidence and causing
temperatures to warm into the mid 90s. The high will lift north
early next week leaving west Texas and eastern New Mexico in a
deep easterly flow. This pattern is favorable near normal
temperatures and increasing moisture which could provide a chance
for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
141 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
141 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 /1241 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE GREATER CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
GREATER CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND