Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

057 
WGUS74 KMAF 160525
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1125 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

NMC015-TXC109-160645-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-150616T0645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULBERSON-EDDY-
1125 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM MDT/145 AM
CDT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN EDDY AND NORTHWESTERN CULBERSON
COUNTIES...

AT 1120 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE WEAKENED AND 
MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL IN AND NEAR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SINCE 10 PM CDT/9
PM MDT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO RUNOFF. THEREFORE...THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 145 PM CDT/1245 AM MDT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF ARROYOS AND DRAWS...ROADS
AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS MAY TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES
IN STEEP TERRAIN. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10491 3201 10485 3203 10485 3202 10465
      3183 10465 3174 10489 3177 10492 3199 10493

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ongoing storms are mostly in between TAF sites and we mostly omitted
the mention of TSRA, except for a brief TEMPO group at KINK.
Otherwise a TEMPO MVFR CIG will be possible at HOB/MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of high pressure, one over the eastern Pacific and the
other on the east coast, are leaving Texas under a weak trough of
low pressure. Normally this setup provides enough instability so
daytime heating causes scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop but today is a little different. A mesoscale convective
vortex (MCV) left over from convection last night remains
stationary near Big Lake and is spreading cloud cover across most
of the Permian Basin keeping surface temperatures down and
increasing low level stability. There are some thunderstorms
currently forming farther west in the Davis Mountains where cloud
cover has been much less, and there are also storms forming from
San Angelo to Sonora where upper lift on the eastern side of the
MCV is overcoming the surface stability. Additional development is
expected in the eastern Permian Basin this afternoon and evening
but slow storm movement will likely prevent it from spreading into
the western Permian Basin or southeastern New Mexico. 0-6km shear
is not high today so convection should be pulse type and mostly
remain below severe levels though slow storm motion could cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper trough will remain in place tomorrow leaving the eastern
Permian Basin and Davis Mountains once again as the locations most
favored for rainfall. A tropical system moving into Texas Tuesday
could actually bring drier conditions to west Texas if the system
is strong enough to induce subsidence outside the main circulation
though this seems doubtfull given the close proximity to the coast
already.

High pressure over the eastern Pacific will build east into Texas
through the end of the week, increasing subsidence and causing
temperatures to warm into the mid 90s. The high will lift north
early next week leaving west Texas and eastern New Mexico in a
deep easterly flow. This pattern is favorable near normal
temperatures and increasing moisture which could provide a chance
for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
141 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
141 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 /1241 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE GREATER CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
GREATER CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
923 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

NMZ027-028-TXZ057-258-160300-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
823 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHWESTERN CULBERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
MDT/1000 PM CDT/...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF PINE SPRINGS AT
824 PM MDT/924 PM CDT/...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3200 10491 3201 10485 3203 10485 3207 10474
      3191 10457 3172 10487 3185 10492 3199 10493
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 013DEG 16KT 3194 10482

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1018 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

NMZ027-TXZ057-258-160400-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
918 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING NORTHWESTERN CULBERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 PM MDT/1100 PM CDT/...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF PINE SPRINGS AT 918 PM MDT/1018 PM
CDT/...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 10491 3201 10485 3203 10485 3205 10480
      3179 10463 3169 10492 3199 10493
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 076DEG 3KT 3196 10482