Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ongoing storms are mostly in between TAF sites and we mostly omitted
the mention of TSRA, except for a brief TEMPO group at KINK.
Otherwise a TEMPO MVFR CIG will be possible at HOB/MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Two areas of high pressure, one over the eastern Pacific and the
other on the east coast, are leaving Texas under a weak trough of
low pressure. Normally this setup provides enough instability so
daytime heating causes scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop but today is a little different. A mesoscale convective
vortex (MCV) left over from convection last night remains
stationary near Big Lake and is spreading cloud cover across most
of the Permian Basin keeping surface temperatures down and
increasing low level stability. There are some thunderstorms
currently forming farther west in the Davis Mountains where cloud
cover has been much less, and there are also storms forming from
San Angelo to Sonora where upper lift on the eastern side of the
MCV is overcoming the surface stability. Additional development is
expected in the eastern Permian Basin this afternoon and evening
but slow storm movement will likely prevent it from spreading into
the western Permian Basin or southeastern New Mexico. 0-6km shear
is not high today so convection should be pulse type and mostly
remain below severe levels though slow storm motion could cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper trough will remain in place tomorrow leaving the eastern
Permian Basin and Davis Mountains once again as the locations most
favored for rainfall. A tropical system moving into Texas Tuesday
could actually bring drier conditions to west Texas if the system
is strong enough to induce subsidence outside the main circulation
though this seems doubtfull given the close proximity to the coast
already.

High pressure over the eastern Pacific will build east into Texas
through the end of the week, increasing subsidence and causing
temperatures to warm into the mid 90s. The high will lift north
early next week leaving west Texas and eastern New Mexico in a
deep easterly flow. This pattern is favorable near normal
temperatures and increasing moisture which could provide a chance
for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
141 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
141 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 /1241 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THE GREATER CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
GREATER CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND