Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
723 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 720 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Rainfall axis has temporarily shifted northward with a bit more
northward movement on the warm front ahead of a low pressure wave
in southwest MO. This wave of low pressure will take the duration
of this evening, and perhaps early overnight, to traverse thru
southeast MO. Once this happens, look for the rain to return in
force in southeast MO and far southern IL.

Another item of concern is the low (but there) potential for
convective severe TSRA along the southern edge of the pcpn where
atmosphere resembles something more along the lines of Spring. A
small chance for a strong to severe gust of wind will remain
possible into the early overnight for southeast MO and far
southern IL.

Once the wave of low pressure moves thru, the near steady temps we
should experience this evening will begin to finally drop.

Speaking of dropping temps, this is another outside chance but in
the realm of possiblity: that surface temps may get cold enough in
parts of northeast MO and west-central IL on Sunday for the rain
to transition to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, or snow.
For now, the likely path is that temps will remain just warm
enough for a cold rain there, but it will be close. If something
were to develop Sunday, this will probably carry into portions of
Sunday night as well.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Heavy rainfall event has been unfolding very close to what was
expected, and confidence is HIGH that we will experience a Very
Serious-High Impact and Potentially Historic Heavy Rain/Flood
Event.

Rain and thunderstorms develop during the predawn hours and have
become aligned and concentrated in a west-southwest to east-
northeast corridor stretching from northwest OK thru MO and IL
into the OH Valley. The focus is along and north of the surface
front where there is a broad region of moisture convergence/lift
due to a strong broad south/southwesterly LLJ, frontogenesis,
disturbances within the SW flow aloft and divergence aloft within
the entrance region of an anticyclonically curved ULJ. This
pattern is forecast to deviate only slightly tonight. The total
rain shield will shift some to the north, while the main and broad
axis of heavy rain and embedded thunder and highest rainfall rates
will waver about its current axis just north of I-44, with a
southward shift late tonight as the front sinks back southward.

Thus far thus highest amounts in the 2-4 inch range have been
centered in nearly a 50 mile wide corridor centered from Vienna MO
to New Melle to Taylorville IL. We are really beginning to see the
impacts ramp up within the last 1-1.5 hours with reports of
flooded roads. Many small stream gages in Metro St. Louis are
above flood stage and rising, and alot of rain is yet to come.
Present indications are another 2-4 inches with the aforementioned
corridor tonight with some locally higher amounts possible.

Once again Serious and life-threatening flash flooding looks quite
likely for areas impacted by small creeks and streams and in
flood prone areas. Metro St. Louis is a big concern due to
urbanization and even more increased runoff, which is already high
throughout the entire area due to lack of winter vegetation and
saturated conditions.

Many local rivers will rise to moderate to major flooding with
the Meramec River possibly reaching new record levels. Travel
impacts are likely.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Once again an emphasis that this is a long duration rain event
lasting into Monday afternoon.

Still looking at a general southward shift and lessening in
intensity of the rain on Sunday morning with the southward poistion
of the front. The intensity and coverage of rain will once again
increase late Sunday afternoon, and continue into Sunday night
and Monday morning in response to the vertically stacked low
lifting north/northeast through the area. The model consensus has
definitely shifted to a more westward track which doesn't bode
well for any winter precipitation. The far northwest corner of the
CWA may flirt with temps near freezing for a short period late
Sunday Night-early Monday morning. Should they fall to aob 32f,
little if any ice accumulation is expected. Still a low chance of
rain changing to snow at the tail end of the system Monday Night in
the strong CAA/cyclonic flow as the system lifts to the northeast
- primarily northeast/central MO. Windy conditions expected late
Sunday Night-Monday afternoon with the deepening and lifting
surface low.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Strong low pressure system will move from Texas to central MO by
midday Monday. Frontal boundary will waver from eastern to central
mo as the low moves north northeast. Exact position will be
tricky, thus the rain forecast as well. Radar shows a southern
edge lifting north, currently has reached southern
Washnington/northern St. Francois counties in MO and northern
Randolph county in IL. HRRR shows this northward movement but
stops it by 04z and then pushed the rain shield back south with a
strong north wind. If this happens, the thunder chances should go
away by 05/06z. Regardless, IFR ceilings and rain should continue
well into Sunday evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Will keep IFR ceilings rain going into Sunday.
Will have to keep an eye on the southern edge of the rain. It is
forecast to halt and move back south before it gets to STL.
Confidence is not overwhelming at this time so foreast may be
nmore of a nowcast tonight.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
     IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
351 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A VERY SERIOUS AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING EVENT IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HEAVY
RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ALONG CREEKS, STREAMS AND RIVERS.
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A VERY SERIOUS AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING EVENT IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO CARLINVILLE
ILLINOIS LINE, WITH AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES NORTH OF THIS LINE.

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS. FLOODING OF MOST RIVERS IS EXPECTED WITH MAJOR AND
POSSIBLY HISTORIC FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES,
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN ST. LOUIS.

GLASS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
653 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW PEERLESS PARK     38.56N  90.51W
12/26/2015  M3.36 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HANNA ROAD AT BIG BEND ROAD

&&

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
721 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  38.50N  90.64W
12/26/2015  M3.03 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
732 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HEAVY RAIN       UNION                   38.45N  91.01W
12/26/2015  M4.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KARLZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
738 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SULLIVAN                38.22N  91.17W
12/26/2015  M3.60 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            MERAMEC STATE PARK NEAR SULLIVAN

&&

KARLZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
739 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

MOZ049-059-060-062-072-073-270230-
OSAGE MO-GASCONADE MO-FRANKLIN MO-WASHINGTON MO-WARREN MO-
CRAWFORD MO-
739 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GASCONADE...FRANKLIN...NORTHERN
CRAWFORD...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CST...

AT 738 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELLE TO NEAR ST.
JAMES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WASHINGTON...UNION...SULLIVAN...ST. CLAIR...CUBA...OWENSVILLE...NEW
HAVEN...STEELVILLE...BOURBON...ANTHONIES MILL...BELLE...GERALD...
MARTHASVILLE...INNSBROOK...BLAND...PARKWAY...ROSEBUD...LEASBURG...
MIRAMIGUOA PARK AND MOUNT STERLING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN EXITS 203 AND 242.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES ONONDAGA CAVE STATE PARK AND MERAMEC STATE
PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN ST LOUIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9183 3877 9109 3816 9079 3787 9153
      3815 9153 3815 9164 3829 9165 3829 9180
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 238DEG 46KT 3830 9177 3794 9158

TES