Areal Flood Warning 55, NWS St. Louis, MO

Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Osage County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
206 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2015

First phase of this event is starting to come to an end with the
heaviest rainfall rates associated with convection moving south of
the CWA. Rain will continue today along and south of I-70 but
rainfall rates will be lower than the last 24 hours. Currently
have about another half inch to inch of rain forecast along and
south of I-70 today with lighter amounts to the north. Will
likely be converting the flash flood warnings to areal flood
warnings to account for ongoing road closures and rising creeks,
streams and rivers. In total rainfall amounts have ranged from 3
to 6 inches in a 50 mile wide swath centered along a line from
Springfield, Missouri through the western St. Louis Metro to
Litchfield, Illinois. The rainfall tapers to around an inch to our
southern CWA and half inch across far northeast Missouri. Flash
flooding was widespread within the 50 mile wide swath with
numerous road closures and water rescues reported yesterday and
overnight.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 201 AM CST Sun Dec 27 2015

...ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...

Second wave of heavy rainfall will take shape tonight and Monday
morning as the deep occluding stacked low pressure system
approaches and lifts overhead. Have conservatively forecast
another 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rainfall from this evening through
Monday afternoon. Convection could lead to locally higher amounts.
This second wave will certainly renew the flash flooding threat
and will therefore keep the Flash Flood Watch in place with this
forecast package. By the time all is said and done expect that 50
mile wide corridor to have somewhere on the order of 6 to 9 inches
of rainfall with amounts tapering off north to 2 inches and south
to 4 inches in the CWA.

...MAJOR AND IN SOME CASES HISTORIC RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED...

This amount of rainfall, largely becoming runoff, will send most of
our rivers into moderate to major flood. A few may set all time
historic crests. Please refer to the NWS AHPS page for the latest
river stages and forecasts:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo-LSX

With the low pressure lifting along the western periphery of the
CWA, through central Missouri, cannot justify any measurable ice or
snow in the CWA. Perhaps we could see a few flurries or snow showers
as the system pulls north into the Great Lakes Monday night, but
again - the message and clear weather story remains the short term
flash flooding threat through Monday afternoon and then the major
and in some cases historic flooding that will be occurring along the
rivers in the CWA.

After a relatively quiet day on Tuesday, another strong shortwave
digs into the Central Plains for midweek. The core of the system and
dynamics look to remain northwest of the CWA, so have only forecast
slight chance PoPs for some light snow on Wednesday.

Cold high pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast with
typical temperatures for the end of December and first days of the
New Year.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Dec 26 2015

Strong low pressure system will move from Texas to central MO by
midday Monday. Frontal boundary will waver from eastern to central
mo as the low moves north northeast. Exact position will be
tricky, thus the rain forecast as well. Radar shows a southern
edge lifting north, currently has reached southern
Washnington/northern St. Francois counties in MO and northern
Randolph county in IL. HRRR shows this northward movement but
stops it by 04z and then pushed the rain shield back south with a
strong north wind. If this happens, the thunder chances should go
away by 05/06z. Regardless, IFR ceilings and rain should continue
well into Sunday evening.

Specifics for KSTL: Will keep IFR ceilings rain going into Sunday.
Will have to keep an eye on the southern edge of the rain. It is
forecast to halt and move back south before it gets to STL.
Confidence is not overwhelming at this time so foreast may be
nmore of a nowcast tonight.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     44  39  49  36 / 100 100 100  20
Quincy          39  34  40  31 /  90 100 100  40
Columbia        39  35  42  30 / 100 100 100  30
Jefferson City  41  38  44  31 / 100 100 100  20
Salem           50  41  51  37 / 100 100 100  20
Farmington      47  40  51  34 / 100 100 100  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Audrain MO-Boone
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds
     MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-St.
     Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon FOR Bond IL-Calhoun
     IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
214 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW NOKOMIS            39.35N  89.34W
12/27/2015  M4.96 INCH       MONTGOMERY         IL   COCORAHS

            WATER ON ROADWAYS OVER USUAL SPOTS...ALSO OVER ROADS
            NOT USUALLY FLOODED. LAW ENFORCEMENT CLOSED SEVERAL
            HIGHWAYS...FIELDS ARE FLOODED...CREEKS AND DITCHES ARE
            AT BANKFULL. STILL RAINING.

&&

CARNEY

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