Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
516 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF IRK TO JUST EAST OF STL. CONVECTION, POSSIBLY SEVERE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD INTO EAST CENTRAL MO AS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OR NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH
SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NORTH OF COU AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF STL. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS, SOME MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER SURFACE
DEW POINTS.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT EVEN ITS SMALL AMOUNT
OF WOBBLING WILL STILL IMPACT OUR AREA AS ITS INFLUENCE IS
EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN WAX AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK.

THE IMPACT IN REGARDS TO HEAT AND PCPN CHANCES THRU MONDAY WILL BE
FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF STL METRO
WITH SUFFICIENT INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER STL METRO AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO TO MAINTAIN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND IN STL METRO WITH MAXES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND SHOULD RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH
DAYS AROUND 105F.  ELSEWHERE...PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F
ARE EXPECTED.

THE PERIOD TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY COULD FEATURE AN INTRUSION BY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH INFLUENCE
RETREATS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERHEAD.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH APPEARS TO BE ON
THE MEND AND BUILDS BACK IN AND COULD BRING A RETURN OF DANGEROUS
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR STL METRO FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BASED PRIMARILY ON 105 BEING ATTAINED BOTH DAYS...BUT SECONDARILY
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE ON 100 OR MORE BEING ATTAINED FOR FOUR
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BEGINNING WITH THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEHWERE...CONFIDENCE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH WITH LOWER FORECAST VALUES
AND SO WILL PROBABLY HINGE MAINLY ON WHETHER OR NOT 100+ HEAT INDEX
VALUES CAN BE ATTAINED THRU TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.  IT IS ALSO BECAUSE OF THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
MONDAY FOR NOW.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

AT 21Z WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE QUINCY AREA, EAST OF STL AND
THEN BETWEEN SPARTA AND MOUNT VERNON. FRONT WILL MOVE A BIT NORTH
SUNDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THUDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO IN THE SHORT TERM UIN
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES,  BUT LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE TAF
DRY. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: WITH THE WARM FRONT BEING THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND IT LYING EAST OF STL, STORMS SHOULD
STAY TO THE EAST. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STORMS SAGGING MORE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS THEY DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT. OTHWERWISE VFR WITH SOUTH T0 SOUTHWEST
WIND.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-121200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
414 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF
SAINT LOUIS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON ALL POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS
RIVER FROM LA GRANGE TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 105
DEGREES AND GREATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SAINT LOUIS
METRO AND COULD IMPACT OTHER AREAS.

MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COATSBURG               40.03N  91.16W
07/11/2015                   ADAMS              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IL 24 CLOSED BETWEEN COATSBURG AND POLAMA... OVERPASS
            UNDERWATER

&&

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1001 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GOLDEN                  40.11N  91.02W
07/11/2015                   ADAMS              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IL 94 CLOSED SOUTH OF GOLDEN... OVERPASS UNDER WATER

&&

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1002 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LORAINE                 40.15N  91.22W
07/11/2015                   ADAMS              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UP TO A FOOT OF WATER OVER IL61 BETWEEN LORAINE AND
            GOLDEN.

&&

JPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1007 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT STERLING          39.98N  90.76W
07/11/2015                   BROWN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            10 RESIDENTS OF AN APARTMENT BUILDIING HAD TO BE
            EVACUATED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

JPK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

ILZ058-098>100-MOZ061-120515-
MADISON IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-ST. CHARLES MO-
1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GREENE...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON...CENTRAL CALHOUN...JERSEY COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1129 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HARDIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GODFREY...JERSEYVILLE...BRIGHTON...HARDIN...GRAFTON...ELSAH...WEST
ALTON...PORTAGE DES SIOUX...OLD KANE...KANE...FIELDON...OTTERVILLE...
NUTWOOD...MCCLUSKY...DELHI AND WOODY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3907 9014 3900 9015 3900 9011 3888 9028
      3889 9030 3889 9033 3888 9034 3885 9035
      3920 9066 3932 9048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 319DEG 21KT 3921 9051

CARNEY