Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS St. Louis, MO

July 11, 2015Adams County, Brown County, Illinois

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this special weather statement at Jul 11, 2015, 9:10 PM CDT for Adams County, Brown County, Illinois. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 11, 2015, 9:10 PM CDT (02:10 UTC)
Expired: Jul 11, 2015, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO

Counties Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 16 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -148 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 685 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 174 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 11, 5:16 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 5:16 PM CDT, 3 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
516 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM JUST
NORTHEAST OF IRK TO JUST EAST OF STL. CONVECTION, POSSIBLY SEVERE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD INTO EAST CENTRAL MO AS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE
NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OR NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH
SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NORTH OF COU AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OF STL. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS, SOME MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER SURFACE
DEW POINTS.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...BUT EVEN ITS SMALL AMOUNT
OF WOBBLING WILL STILL IMPACT OUR AREA AS ITS INFLUENCE IS
EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN WAX AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEK.

THE IMPACT IN REGARDS TO HEAT AND PCPN CHANCES THRU MONDAY WILL BE
FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TO REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF STL METRO
WITH SUFFICIENT INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER STL METRO AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO TO MAINTAIN THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
THE HOTTEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND IN STL METRO WITH MAXES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND SHOULD RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH
DAYS AROUND 105F.  ELSEWHERE...PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F
ARE EXPECTED.

THE PERIOD TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY COULD FEATURE AN INTRUSION BY A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH INFLUENCE
RETREATS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVERHEAD.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH APPEARS TO BE ON
THE MEND AND BUILDS BACK IN AND COULD BRING A RETURN OF DANGEROUS
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO MUCH OF THE AREA.

HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR STL METRO FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BASED PRIMARILY ON 105 BEING ATTAINED BOTH DAYS...BUT SECONDARILY
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE ON 100 OR MORE BEING ATTAINED FOR FOUR
CONSECUTIVE DAYS BEGINNING WITH THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEHWERE...CONFIDENCE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH WITH LOWER FORECAST VALUES
AND SO WILL PROBABLY HINGE MAINLY ON WHETHER OR NOT 100+ HEAT INDEX
VALUES CAN BE ATTAINED THRU TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.  IT IS ALSO BECAUSE OF THE
EXPECTED FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
MONDAY FOR NOW.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

AT 21Z WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE QUINCY AREA, EAST OF STL AND
THEN BETWEEN SPARTA AND MOUNT VERNON. FRONT WILL MOVE A BIT NORTH
SUNDAY BEFORE SAGGING SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THUDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO IN THE SHORT TERM UIN
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES,  BUT LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE TAF
DRY. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: WITH THE WARM FRONT BEING THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND IT LYING EAST OF STL, STORMS SHOULD
STAY TO THE EAST. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STORMS SAGGING MORE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS THEY DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT. OTHWERWISE VFR WITH SOUTH T0 SOUTHWEST
WIND.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ST.
     CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MADISON IL-
     ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 4:14 PM CDT, 4 hours 56 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-121200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
414 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF
SAINT LOUIS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON ALL POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS
RIVER FROM LA GRANGE TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 105
DEGREES AND GREATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SAINT LOUIS
METRO AND COULD IMPACT OTHER AREAS.

MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

TES

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 11, 5:11 PM CDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
511 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E SCOTTVILLE          39.48N  90.05W
07/11/2015                   MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN ON THE SCOTTVILLE MODESTO ROAD.

&&

JPK

Local storm report, Jul 11, 5:12 PM CDT, 3 hours 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
512 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             SCOTTVILLE              39.48N  90.10W
07/11/2015  E0.25 INCH       MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPK

Special weather statement, Jul 11, 9:10 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
910 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

ILZ095>097-120300-
BROWN IL-PIKE IL-ADAMS IL-
910 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PIKE...ADAMS AND BROWN
COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 910 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM QUINCY TO NEAR MOUNT
STERLING...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINCY...MOUNT STERLING...BARRY...GRIGGSVILLE...CAMP POINT...
PAYSON...MENDON...CLAYTON...GOLDEN...BEVERLY...BUCKHORN...ADAMS...LA
GRANGE...KINGSTON...BURTON...URSA...LIBERTY...VERSAILLES...HULL AND
RICHFIELD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 172 BETWEEN EXITS 10 AND 19.
 INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN EXITS 10 AND 20.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES SILOAM SPRINGS STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4011 9091 4010 9070 4009 9070 4008 9067
      4005 9068 4002 9063 4003 9061 4001 9062
      4000 9060 3998 9060 3999 9052 3997 9051
      3992 9054 3988 9058 3983 9057 3973 9063
      3964 9117 4008 9150 4019 9095 4019 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 309DEG 20KT 3992 9138 4004 9069

CARNEY

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 11, 8:25 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	3 days
Jul 11, 8:25 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	3 days
Jul 11, 9:58 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	6 hr
Jul 11, 10:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lewis	62 hr
Jul 11, 10:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	68 hr
Jul 11, 10:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	4 days
Jul 11, 10:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Ralls	4 days
Jul 11, 10:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Pike	5 days
Jul 11, 10:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Pike	5 days
Jul 11, 11:26 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Knox, Lewis	6 hr
Jul 12, 12:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Ralls	42 min
Jul 12, 1:25 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LSX	Marion	3 hr
Jul 12, 2:15 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	50 hr
Jul 12, 2:20 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LSX	Pike, Ralls	3 hr
Jul 12, 2:52 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	3 hr
Jul 12, 9:40 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Osage	3 days
Jul 12, 9:56 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Marion	60 hr
Jul 12, 4:19 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Lincoln	5 days
Jul 11, 7:08 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LSX	Adams, Brown	3 hr
Jul 11, 7:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Calhoun, Greene, Macoupin, Pike	40 min
Jul 11, 8:06 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LSX	Brown	7 days
Jul 11, 8:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Greene, Jersey, Macoupin	45 min
Jul 11, 9:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Adams, Pike	39 min
Jul 11, 11:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Jersey	45 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.