Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move through mainly east central and
southeast MO and southwest IL along and ahead of a weakening cold
front moving southeastward through our area.  These storms were very
efficient at producing high rainfall rates.  The front will continue
moving southeastward today as an upper level trough moves eastward
through the Great Lakes region.  The models continue to depict
strong upper level divergence this morning across portions of
central and southeast MO and southwest IL in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak moving northeastward through the
Great Lakes region just ahead of the upper level trough.  Most of
the precipitation this morning should occur across southeast MO and
southwest IL, generally south and east of STL.  The potential for
more showers/storms will continue across parts of southeast MO and
southwest IL this afternoon, with some of the models indicating the
possibility of a band of post frontal showers and storms moving
southeastward through west central and southwest IL this afternoon
into the evening hours in an area of enhanced instability ahead of a
northwest flow shortwave.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

May continue to have a few lingering showers/storms across parts of
IL and southeast MO this evening until the upper level trough shifts
east of our region and the atmosphere stabilizes.  Slightly cooler,
more normal minimum temperatures for tonight.  Tranquil and dry
weather on tap for Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Warmer and more humid
conditions Wednesday as the upper level ridge over the southern
Plains tries to build back northeastward into our area and the
850 mb temperatures rise.  A front will try to sag southward into
northeast MO and west central IL Wednesday afternoon and night.
While there will be little if any upper level forcing for convective
initiation along this front, plus possibly enough CIN to cap the
atmosphere Wednesday afternoon, there may eventually be scattered
convection along it Wednesday night as low to mid level warm air
advection increases ahead of a shortwave moving through the northern
Plains as indicated by the GFS and NAM models.  The ECMWF model
keeps the front north of our area and hence keeps it dry across our
forecast region through Wednesday night.  Thursday looks warm again
as the front lifts back northward with strong s-swly low level flow
in the warm sector and the convection mainly north and west of our
area.  More active weather for Friday into the weekend as an upper
level trough moving through the Great Lakes region sends a cold
front southeastward into our forecast area on Friday.  This front
will stall out over our area Friday night, and then begin to move
back northward as a warm front on Saturday as an upper level ridge
tries to build into our area from the southeastern US.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

VFR conditions are expected with the only exception is if a shower
affects KUIN this afternoon with secondary cold front. Northwest
to west wind is expected.

Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions expected.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-091200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
1147 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THEN FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

CVKING

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1051 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     FLOOD            4 S BROWNSTOWN          38.94N  88.95W
06/08/2015                   FAYETTE            IL   MESONET

            HICKORY CREEK GAGE CRESTED AT 17.08...MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
            IS 17 FT.

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1053 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     FLOOD            1 E MULBERRY GROVE      38.92N  89.25W
06/08/2015                   FAYETTE            IL   MESONET

            HURRICANE CREEK AT MULBERRY GROVE CRESTED AT 15.6 FT.
            FLOOD STAGE IS 13 FT.

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1055 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     FLOOD            COFFEEN                 39.09N  89.39W
06/08/2015                   MONTGOMERY         IL   MESONET

            EAST FORK SHOAL CREEK AT COFFEEN CRESTED AT 12.5 FT.
            FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FT.

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1103 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     FLOOD            HALLSVILLE              39.12N  92.22W
06/08/2015                   BOONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOUNT ZION CHURCH RD. BETWEEN HAGUE RD. AND HECHT RD.
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1132 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ST. JACOB               38.72N  89.77W
06/08/2015  M2.80 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GOSSELIN