Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
644 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

Thunderstorms continue to move through mainly east central and
southeast MO and southwest IL along and ahead of a weakening cold
front moving southeastward through our area.  These storms were very
efficient at producing high rainfall rates.  The front will continue
moving southeastward today as an upper level trough moves eastward
through the Great Lakes region.  The models continue to depict
strong upper level divergence this morning across portions of
central and southeast MO and southwest IL in the right entrance
region of an upper level jet streak moving northeastward through the
Great Lakes region just ahead of the upper level trough.  Most of
the precipitation this morning should occur across southeast MO and
southwest IL, generally south and east of STL.  The potential for
more showers/storms will continue across parts of southeast MO and
southwest IL this afternoon, with some of the models indicating the
possibility of a band of post frontal showers and storms moving
southeastward through west central and southwest IL this afternoon
into the evening hours in an area of enhanced instability ahead of a
northwest flow shortwave.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

May continue to have a few lingering showers/storms across parts of
IL and southeast MO this evening until the upper level trough shifts
east of our region and the atmosphere stabilizes.  Slightly cooler,
more normal minimum temperatures for tonight.  Tranquil and dry
weather on tap for Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Warmer and more humid
conditions Wednesday as the upper level ridge over the southern
Plains tries to build back northeastward into our area and the
850 mb temperatures rise.  A front will try to sag southward into
northeast MO and west central IL Wednesday afternoon and night.
While there will be little if any upper level forcing for convective
initiation along this front, plus possibly enough CIN to cap the
atmosphere Wednesday afternoon, there may eventually be scattered
convection along it Wednesday night as low to mid level warm air
advection increases ahead of a shortwave moving through the northern
Plains as indicated by the GFS and NAM models.  The ECMWF model
keeps the front north of our area and hence keeps it dry across our
forecast region through Wednesday night.  Thursday looks warm again
as the front lifts back northward with strong s-swly low level flow
in the warm sector and the convection mainly north and west of our
area.  More active weather for Friday into the weekend as an upper
level trough moving through the Great Lakes region sends a cold
front southeastward into our forecast area on Friday.  This front
will stall out over our area Friday night, and then begin to move
back northward as a warm front on Saturday as an upper level ridge
tries to build into our area from the southeastern US.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2015

A weak cold front extended from central IL through central MO early
this morning as was moving slowly to the southeast. A narrow band
of stratus was located along and ahead of the front with flight
conditions ranging from LIFR to low MVFR. KCOU will experience
LIFR for possibly several more hours. The St. Louis area is a
tough call but given the upstream stratus opted for a TEMPO group
of low-end MVFR cigs. Anticipating that by 15-16z all the
terminals should be VFR and remain that way for the remainder of
the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:

The bulk of the precipitation appears to be over but a brief
shower or few sprinkles will be possible through mid morning.
Otherwise watching a band of stratus consisting of IFR to low-end
MVFR cigs. This stratus may impact the terminal for several hours
this morning and have opted for a TEMPO group. By 15-16z the flight
conditions should be VFR and remain that way for the remainder of
the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
853 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-091200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
853 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THEN FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

CVKING

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