Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS St. Louis, MO

201 
WWUS53 KLSX 080358
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1058 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MOC137-080408-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-150608T0415Z/
MONROE MO-
1058 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3896 9242 3903 9255 3924 9244 3925 9232
      3930 9232 3935 9231 3931 9205 3919 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 294DEG 37KT 3927 9203 3903 9248

$$

MOC007-019-080415-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-150608T0415Z/
BOONE MO-AUDRAIN MO-
1058 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1056 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CENTRALIA TO MIDWAY...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTRALIA...MIDWAY...HALLSVILLE AND THOMPSON.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES FINGER LAKES STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI NEAR EXIT 121.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 9242 3903 9255 3924 9244 3925 9232
      3930 9232 3935 9231 3931 9205 3919 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 294DEG 37KT 3927 9203 3903 9248

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

KANOFSKY

776 
WWUS53 KLSX 080403
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1103 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MOC007-019-080413-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-150608T0415Z/
BOONE MO-AUDRAIN MO-
1103 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN
BOONE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM.

LAT...LON 3896 9242 3903 9255 3924 9244 3925 9232
      3930 9232 3935 9231 3931 9205 3919 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 294DEG 37KT 3925 9197 3901 9242

$$

KANOFSKY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
629 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

Primary concern for tonight will be on severe weather. Currently
anticipate a shortwave near STJ travelling ENE to help initiate a
corridor of strong to severe storms near the IA/MO border. As the
synoptic cold front slides slowly south and eastward...additional
development should occur along/ahead of it by this evening.
Certainly ample instability (SBCAPE aoa 3000 J/kg) which compensates
for the more marginal deep-layer shear values (~20-25 knots). Best
odds of more widespread strong/severe storms continues to be across
portions of northeast MO...west-central IL where best combination of
forcing for ascent...instability...and shear will be collocated.
Multicells with possible bowing segments will likely occur with
damaging winds the primary threat. Large hail will also be
possible...particularly with any cells that stay discrete and gain
the ability to rotate. As we head deeper into the
evening...instability will wane a bit so a bit lesser of a threat
for severe weather roughly from I-70 and south. Heavy rain also is a
possible threat with any training convection which is possible as
flow becomes more and more parallel to baroclinic zone. Behind the
effective frontal boundary...also expecting widespread shra w/
embedded thunder to affect the CWA through the late night hours.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

(Monday)

Models show decent lift thru the column at 12z from near what should
be the low level frontal zone still expected to be just north and
west of STL metro but this will sweep thru much of the CWA by
midday.  Prefer at or above higher MET MOS PoPs for most areas
because of this, but it also looks like the further south expected
position of the front Monday afternoon will limit the area where
re-development of TSRA can occur.  Trimmed this area a bit and
limited mainly to the far southern counties just south of KFAM.
Still believe there will at least be a marginal threat for severe
with combo of moderately unstable air and decent bulk shear, but the
window of opportunity will be small spatially and temporally for a
short period of the afternoon in parts of southeast MO.

Despite being behind the cold front for most of the day, should
still see a warm day with mid-upper 80s for maxes expected, save in
parts of southeast MO where more persistent cloud and better rain
chances will limit their warmup.

(Tuesday - Wednesday)

Quiet period expected with NW flow aloft, with reduced moisture
thru the column and lack of any fronts or clear upper level
disturbances until late Wednesday.  Very warm temps expected, with
maxes each day in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

(Thursday - Next Sunday)

SW flow aloft pattern resumes, bringing back occasional upper level
disturbances, moisture increasing thru the column, and a surface
frontal boundary lingering.  This will result in above climo PoPs
thru much of this period, meaning persistent 30% chances and higher.
Temps look to be at least seasonably warm if not remaining above
average thru the period.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2015

Focus continues to be on timing of thunderstorms and severity
through this evening. Once again have delayed onset of storms
another 1-2 hours per latest radar imagery and HRRR guidance. Band
of convection has very slowly moved southward late this afternoon
with individual elements predominantly travelling east or even
a bit northeast. Have timing of onset around 0100 UTC at
KUIN...0400 UTC at KCOU...and 0500-0600 at metro TAF sites. Storms
may be strong to severe...particularly for KUIN early this
evening. Predominant threats would be damaging winds and large
hail. Still also expecting some shra with embedded thunder behind
convective line as secondary shortwave rotates down the base of
the amplifying trough. Quieter weather with winds veering to the
northwest behind the cold front is anticipated by late Monday
morning along with scattering out of the cloud deck.

Specifics for KSTL:

Focus continues to be on timing of thunderstorms and severity
through this evening. Once again have delayed onset of storms
another hour per latest radar imagery and HRRR guidance. Band
of convection has very slowly moved southward late this afternoon
with individual elements predominantly travelling east or even
a bit northeast. Have timing of onset at Lambert Field around 0500 UTC.
A few storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds and small
hail possible. Still also expecting some shra with embedded thunder behind
convective line as secondary shortwave rotates down the base of
the amplifying trough through about 1300 UTC Monday morning. Quieter
weather with winds veering to the northwest behind the cold front
is anticipated by late Monday morning along with scattering out of
the cloud deck.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-081200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
331 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SOME OF THE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY MORNING AND BE LIMITED TO SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
742 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LORAINE                 40.15N  91.22W
06/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FELL IN 20 MINUTES.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
753 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E LORAINE             40.15N  91.18W
06/07/2015                   ADAMS              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ADAMS
            COUNTY.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
758 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GOLDEN                  40.11N  91.02W
06/07/2015  M1.19 INCH       ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NO DAMAGE AROUND GOLDEN.

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
843 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0838 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE PITTSFIELD         39.63N  90.78W
06/07/2015  M44 MPH          PIKE               IL   AWOS

&&

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
956 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     HAIL             PITTSFIELD              39.61N  90.81W
06/07/2015  E0.25 INCH       PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VISIBILITY ALSO AROUND ONE-QUARTER MILE IN HEAVY RAIN

&&

TRUETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1003 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MOZ034>036-041-042-080400-
AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-MONROE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-
1003 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN
BOONE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN RALLS...
NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND MONROE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL
1100 PM CDT...

AT 1001 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MONROE CITY TO GLASGOW...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  PARIS...
  SANTA FE...
  CENTRALIA...
  MADISON...
  CENTER...
  PERRY...
  STURGEON...
  FRANKFORD...
  SPENCERBURG...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MARK TWAIN LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA AND UNION
COVERED BRIDGE HISTORIC SITE.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

KANOFSKY