Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

ASIDE FROM A FEW ONGOING HYDRO ISSUES...ALL IS CALM AROUND EASTERN
KENTUCKY AT THE MOMENT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF OUR AREA AFTER 5 PM...AND THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS BETWEEN 630 AND 700 PM THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS CURRENTLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OHIO AND
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN
RESPONSE TO A SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. ONCE THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WE WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING MCS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TO SUSTAIN THE APPROACHING STORMS...AND MAKE
THEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS CLUSTER
STORMS...AS MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING YESTERDAY...OVERNIGHT...AND TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES...DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR AND
ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ACCOUNTING FOR
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS AND THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL DEPICT HEIGHTS RISING THROUGH
KENTUCKY TO END THE WORK WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP TROUGH THAT
WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
RUNS EAST ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGES...RUNNING GENERALLY ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THIS MID
LEVEL WAVE PASSES...WE WILL SEE THE SOUTHERN RIDGE BUILD MORE
EFFECTIVELY INTO THE STATE HOWEVER...PROBABLY NOT TO THE EXTENT
NECESSARY TO SHUT DOWN CONVECTION...THOUGH. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF
THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES THAT HAVE SPANWED THE ORGANIZED AND
DEADLY SYSTEMS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH
OF THE CWA TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MONDAY...THOUGH...AS ANOTHER STRONG
TROUGH SINKS OUT OF CANADA SWEEPING ITS WAY TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE ENERGY PACKETS CROSSING THE
AREA. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THAN THE GFS...DIPPING IT WELL SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS PREFERRED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED
BY A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID SETUP FOR
EAST KENTUCKY LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN ON FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AND FADES OUT...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF LATE DAY CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FOR THE
WEEKEND...AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION...
THE HEAT WILL BUILD WITH LOWER 90S A GOOD BET FOR MANY PLACES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS...STILL LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WHILE THE HEAT REMAINS WITH MORE LOW 90S ON TAP. THE
BETTER STORM CHANCES SHOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANYING THAT
FRONT. LOOK FOR HEAT INDICES TO PEAK BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES
EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE MAJORITY OF
ANY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POP AND SKY GRIDS TO EMPHASIZE THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...AS WELL AS A LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...DID TOUCH THE LOWS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REPRESENT JUST MINOR TERRAIN EFFECTS GIVEN THIS
CONTINUING HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

STILL A BATCH OF CONVECTION TO GO THROUGH THE SME AND LOZ SITES
THIS MORNING WITH LOWER CIGS AND VIS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF TS. THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT SHORTLY...THOUGH...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL COME AT A
PRICE AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORMS DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE BEST MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE EVENING
HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...ALL SITES HAVE VCTS RETURNING TO THEIR TAFS
AFTER 20Z. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO EXTEND THAT THROUGH 03 OR 04Z
SHOULD THE LATEST NAM12 IDEA PAN OUT FROM SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN
THE NORTHEAST AND SHIFTING SOUTH...SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CWA. FOG
AND LOW CIGS MAY FOLLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED IN
ANY STORMS. LOOK FOR THE SPEEDS TO SETTLE DOWN LATE IN THE EVENING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
359 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...
LARGE HAIL...OR WIND DAMAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

GREIF/AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1204 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1201 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              36.84N 84.85W
07/14/2015  M1.75 INCH       WAYNE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            HAIL FALLING AT DISPATCH CENTER.

&&

TBREWER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KYZ083-141900-
WAYNE-
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WAYNE...

AT 210 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ALBANY...OR 8 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BYRDSTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SLICKFORD...MOUNT PISGAH...SUNNYBROOK...PARMLEYSVILLE...POWERSBURG
AND HIDALGO.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 8496 3662 8499 3663 8500 3668 8500
      3669 8502 3672 8502 3675 8500 3668 8472
      3660 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 300DEG 36KT 3669 8520

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT VERNON            37.36N 84.34W
07/14/2015                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT LEAST 10 TREES DOWN, ONE FELL ONTO THE DECK OF A HOME.
            ONE TREE IS ACROSS HWY 461 BLOCKING TRAFFIC ON TRINITY
            LANE.

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E OIL VALLEY          36.77N 84.78W
07/14/2015                   WAYNE              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            8 INCHES OF FLOWING WATER ACROSS EASY HWY 92.

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
532 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W BEE LICK            37.33N 84.59W
07/14/2015                   LINCOLN            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 LARGE TREES DOWN IN YARD.

&&

TBREWER