Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Jackson, KY

243 
WGUS73 KJKL 140704
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KYC011-063-069-165-173-175-205-141145-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150714T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLEMING KY-MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-ELLIOTT KY-BATH KY-
ROWAN KY-
304 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM EDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL FLEMING...NORTHERN MENIFEE...NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...
CENTRAL MORGAN...SOUTHERN ELLIOTT...BATH AND SOUTHERN ROWAN
COUNTIES...

AT 302 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SOME 
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAINFALL SINCE 2 
AM. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...PARTICULARLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
MOUNT STERLING...WEST LIBERTY...OWINGSVILLE...SANDY HOOK...
MARSHALL...SHARPSBURG...SALT LICK...CROCKETT...BETHEL...LYTTEN...
MIMA...WRIGLEY...FLAT CREEK...BOURBON FURNACE...RELIEF...PRESTON...
ODESSA...EWINGTON...SIDEVIEW AND LITTLE SANDY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 8373 3824 8368 3815 8344 3806 8297
      3798 8302 3796 8299 3789 8296 3790 8299
      3786 8301 3787 8306 3789 8309 3789 8313
      3788 8313 3808 8406 3811 8408 3830 8385

$$

GEOGERIAN

713 
WGUS73 KJKL 141147
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

KYC011-063-069-165-173-175-205-141156-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0054.000000T0000Z-150714T1145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FLEMING KY-MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-ELLIOTT KY-BATH KY-
ROWAN KY-
747 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FLEMING...NORTHERN
MENIFEE...NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...CENTRAL MORGAN...SOUTHERN ELLIOTT...
BATH AND SOUTHERN ROWAN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED 
TO POSE A THREAT. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN LOW LYING 
AREAS AND A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10:45 AM.

LAT...LON 3829 8373 3824 8368 3815 8344 3806 8297
      3798 8302 3796 8299 3789 8296 3790 8299
      3786 8301 3787 8306 3789 8309 3789 8313
      3788 8313 3808 8406 3811 8408 3830 8385

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
131 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION AND
RADAR TRENDS. AFTER A LULL ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD DAWN. SOME OF THIS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR THE RELATIVE LULL IN ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 HOURS OR SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING UPSTREAM FROM IN
NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO WI SHOULD TRACK TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY CONGEALING INTO AN MCS. THIS SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND A RENEWED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH WINDS WAS PUNCHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON. ON ITS PRESENT
TRAJECTORY...MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH IT IT LIKELY TO EXIT SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
AFTER THIS...FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF FUTURE
CONVECTION BECOMES PROBLEMATIC. MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY WILL FIRE DURING THE NIGHT AND DROP SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS. HAVE TENTATIVELY
USED A LIKELY POP...BUT DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EVOLUTION/TIMING. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER BY
THEN...RAINFALL MAY BE A BIGGER CONCERN THAN SEVERE WX DURING THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AFTER
THE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY
TO OUR NE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE AGAIN
AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL AND
EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AS MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREATS THAN THEY AREA TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DO NOT AGREE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHEREAS THE
ECMWF ALLOWS THE HIGH TO RETROGRADE WEST AND THE TROUGH TO DIG INTO
THE OH VALLEY. SO WITH TWO VARYING SOLUTIONS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO
CR SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THEN
THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT. EXPECT A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON SATURDAY AND ARE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HEAT
INDICIES WILL LIKELY REACH THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE AS DEW POINTS
WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

TAF SITES ARE STARING THE PERIOD MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER LINE OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CWA
TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY MAKING INTO THE SYM SITE THIS
HOUR...GIVEN THAT HAVE WENT AHEAD WITH -TSRA AT THAT SITE. OPTED
TO FOLLOW SUITE DOWN STREAM FROM 7Z TO 8Z. RIGHT NOW KEPT MVFR IN
GENERAL HOWEVER SITES WILL CERTAINLY HAVE A CHANCE OF DROPPING
FURTHER DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BETTER CONVECTION OCCURS. GENERALLY
WOULD THINK AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES OUT SITES WOULD HAVE CHANCES
OF IMPROVING BY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND OVERALL SEVERITY. MOST
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT PERHAPS WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
912 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-150415-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
912 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THE THREAT OF FLOODING
RAINS MAY BE THE GREATEST CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAY BE SEVERE. THEY COULD BRING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING. ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ON
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY AT TIMES
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...OR FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

HAL/JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
832 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S VANCLEVE            37.61N 83.41W
07/13/2015                   BREATHITT          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE VANCLEVE FIRE DEPT.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
839 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VIRGIE                  37.33N 82.58W
07/13/2015                   PIKE               KY   PUBLIC

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
844 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLIMAX                  37.47N 84.23W
07/13/2015                   ROCKCASTLE         KY   PUBLIC

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
847 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PAINTSVILLE             37.82N 82.81W
07/13/2015                   JOHNSON            KY   PUBLIC

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A POWERLINE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
855 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE BRUIN             38.20N 83.01W
07/13/2015                   ELLIOTT            KY   PUBLIC

            A SHED WAS DESTROYED AND TREES FELL AT THE SAME RESIDENCE
            WITH ONE FALLING ONTO THE HOME.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
917 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSON                 37.56N 83.38W
07/13/2015                   BREATHITT          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE IN THE PICNIC HILL SUBDIVISION.

&&

JMWIX