Severe Thunderstorm Warning 378, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.UPDATE...AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP THE CONVECTIVE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI PUSHING TO THE EAST. CURRENT
HI-RES MODELS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA. CURRENTLY WE HAVE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
REGION UNTIL 3 AM. LATEST NAM MODEL PUSHES THE FRONT END OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE OUT OF THE ARKLAMISS PRIOR TO DAWN WEDNESDAY. CURRENT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S EAST LOOK TO BE ON TRACK./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...350 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015
.DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE IMPINGING ON WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT
THE MOMENT AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE SWEEPING EAST OVERNIGHT. BACK
EDGE OF PRECIP STILL EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS EAST TX. RAINFALL
AMOOUNTS HAVE BEEN QUITE HEAVY OVER NORTH LA WITH REPORTS OF NEAR 3.5
INCHES TODAY IN SHV. THESE AMOUNTS WERE EXPECTED AND SHOULD SEE
AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO THIS OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY HAVE OVERACHIEVED FROM WHAT WAS EXPECTED. BETTER
WARMTH/MOISTURE HAS YIELDED CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG THE MS RIVER
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...0-1KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE HAVE MAXIMIZED AT 40 TO 50
KNOTS. WHILE CELLS HAVE JUST STARTED MOVING INTO THE AREA...HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED THE PREPONDERANCE WANTING TO ROTATE AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING WHILE THE GOOD INSTABILITY LASTS.

HAVE OBSERVED 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE DELTA AS 80 DEGREE HEATING HAS CREATED DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT
ENOUGH AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS...BELIEVE THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. THUS...WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 00Z.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
TOWARD DAWN...BUT LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT BEHIND THE RAIN WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
BEING CLEAR BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
DOMINANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN./26/

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT THE
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOWER STRATUS WILL FILL IN ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS. A LINE OF TSRA WILL PUSH WEST TO
EAST CROSS THE REGION, REACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT
AND THE I-59 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE. VISBYS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AT TIMES IN +TSRA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO WED MORNING BEHIND THE
LINE DUE TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  66  44  69 / 100  52   6   8
MERIDIAN      61  61  43  69 /  99  98   8   8
VICKSBURG     54  66  43  69 / 100  22   6   9
HATTIESBURG   63  62  46  71 / 100  95   9   3
NATCHEZ       54  68  46  70 / 100  21   6   6
GREENVILLE    52  63  46  66 / 100  19   6  10
GREENWOOD     55  64  44  68 / 100  34   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
727 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-023-024-MSZ018-019-034-190130-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-
727 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

LAZ016-025-026-MSZ025>030-032-033-035>038-040>045-047>050-053>056-
059>064-190130-
MADISON LA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-WARREN-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
727 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ031-039-046-051-052-057-058-065-066-072>074-190130-
LOWNDES-NOXUBEE-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
727 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S EDWARDS             32.30N 90.60W
11/17/2015                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON HWY 467 AND ON A POWER LINE.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1012 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S EDWARDS             32.30N 90.60W
11/17/2015                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON HWY 467 AND ON A POWER LINE. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO.

&&

AW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1017 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

MSZ048-049-054-055-180500-
SIMPSON MS-HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-COPIAH MS-
1017 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN
COPIAH...RANKIN... CENTRAL SIMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES
UNTIL 1100 PM CST...

AT 1016 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR JACKSON TO NEAR TERRY TO NEAR
WESSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TERRY AROUND 1020 PM CST.
  BYRAM AND WHITES AROUND 1025 PM CST.
  FLOWOOD AROUND 1030 PM CST.
  FLORENCE AROUND 1035 PM CST.
  MONTEREY AROUND 1040 PM CST.
  STAR AND PINEY WOODS AROUND 1045 PM CST.
  ROCKPORT AND FANNIN AROUND 1050 PM CST.
  GOSHEN SPRINGS AROUND 1055 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE BEAUREGARD...
GEORGETOWN...BRAXTON AND D'LO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 9042 3170 9053 3205 9037 3243 9031
      3245 9025 3240 9024 3240 9007 3244 9007
      3248 9002 3251 8993 3258 8986 3259 8979
      3236 8973 3219 8974 3176 8994 3176 9013
      3170 9026 3170 9038 3169 9038 3169 9041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 254DEG 28KT 3238 9025 3207 9029 3172 9045

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1033 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

MSZ043-180515-
MADISON MS-
1033 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MADISON COUNTY UNTIL
1115 PM CST...

AT 1033 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR PICKENS TO RIDGELAND...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMERON AROUND 1040 PM CST.
  FARMHAVEN AROUND 1110 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 8979 3259 8979 3258 8986 3251 8993
      3248 9002 3244 9004 3244 9007 3240 9007
      3240 9020 3270 9012 3270 9010 3274 9005
      3283 9001 3284 8999 3287 8997 3288 8997
      3288 8973 3263 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 240DEG 36KT 3290 9002 3242 9014

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POCAHONTAS              32.47N 90.29W
11/17/2015                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON HWY 49 AT FOA ROAD ON THE POWER LINES.

&&

AW

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