Severe Thunderstorm Warning 369, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE IMPINGING ON WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AT
THE MOMENT AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE SWEEPING EAST OVERNIGHT. BACK
EDGE OF PRECIP STILL EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS EAST TX. RAINFALL
AMOOUNTS HAVE BEEN QUITE HEAVY OVER NORTH LA WITH REPORTS OF NEAR 3.5
INCHES TODAY IN SHV. THESE AMOUNTS WERE EXPECTED AND SHOULD SEE
AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO THIS OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY HAVE OVERACHIEVED FROM WHAT WAS EXPECTED. BETTER
WARMTH/MOISTURE HAS YIELDED CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG THE MS RIVER
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...0-1KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE HAVE MAXIMIZED AT 40 TO 50
KNOTS. WHILE CELLS HAVE JUST STARTED MOVING INTO THE AREA...HAVE
ALREADY NOTICED THE PREPONDERANCE WANTING TO ROTATE AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING WHILE THE GOOD INSTABILITY LASTS.

HAVE OBSERVED 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE DELTA AS 80 DEGREE HEATING HAS CREATED DEEP
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT
ENOUGH AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS...BELIEVE THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. THUS...WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 00Z.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
TOWARD DAWN...BUT LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT BEHIND THE RAIN WITH THE ENTIRE AREA
BEING CLEAR BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
DOMINANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN./26/

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF STRATUS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM, WITH CIGS
VARYING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KT POSSIBLE. SCT
SHRA AND TSRA WILL INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING, LOWER STRATUS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS. A LINE OF TSRA WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION, REACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
THE I-59 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE. VISBYS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AT TIMES IN +TSRA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO WED MORNING BEHIND THE LINE
DUE TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  66  44  69 / 100  52   6   8
MERIDIAN      61  61  43  69 /  99  98   8   8
VICKSBURG     54  66  43  69 / 100  22   6   9
HATTIESBURG   63  62  46  71 / 100  95   9   3
NATCHEZ       54  68  46  70 / 100  21   6   6
GREENVILLE    52  63  46  66 / 100  19   6  10
GREENWOOD     55  64  44  68 / 100  34   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
040>042-047-048-053-054-059>061-182300-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
WARREN-HINDS-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
455 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...THIS EVENING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THIS EVENING

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND
TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ026>030-032-033-036>038-043>045-049-050-055-056-062>064-182300-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-
ATTALA-WINSTON-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-RANKIN-SCOTT-SIMPSON-
SMITH-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
455 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ031-039-046-051-052-057-058-065-066-072>074-182300-
LOWNDES-NOXUBEE-KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-JASPER-CLARKE-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
455 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL MAKE FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
612 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE CROSSETT          33.12N 91.94W
11/17/2015                   ASHLEY             AR   UTILITY COMPANY

            A UTILITY POLE WAS BROKEN

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
617 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 N GREENVILLE          33.44N 91.04W
11/17/2015                   WASHINGTON         MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ON UTILITY EQUIPMENT

0415 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N WINTERVILLE         33.51N 91.06W
11/17/2015                   WASHINGTON         MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ON UTILITY EQUIPMENT

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 S WESSON              31.67N 90.39W
11/17/2015                   LINCOLN            MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            A UTILITY LINE WAS DOWNED

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE ROSEDALE           33.89N 90.98W
11/17/2015                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN NE OF ROSEDALE.

&&

CME