Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 23, NWS Jackson, MS

March 8, 2015Clay County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood warning at Mar 8, 2015, 8:23 PM CDT for Clay County, Mississippi. It took effect at Mar 11, 2015, 1:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 53 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 8, 2015, 8:23 PM CDT (01:23 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 11, 2015, 1:00 PM CDT
Expired
Mar 13, 2015, 5:30 PM CDT
In force
53 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Clay County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Tibbee Creek near Tibbee (TBBM6).

Action stage
20 ft
Minor stage
23 ft
Moderate stage
28 ft
Major stage
30 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02441000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

218 
WGUS44 KJAN 090123
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
823 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015


...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Mississippi... 

  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County
  Noxubee River At Macon affecting Noxubee County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 12 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.


Additional information is available at:  
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC025-100723-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0023.150311T1800Z-150313T2230Z/
/TBBM6.1.ER.150311T1800Z.150312T1200Z.150313T1630Z.NO/
823 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee
* from Wednesday afternoon to Friday afternoon.
* At 7:30 PM Sunday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by early Wednesday
  afternoon and will continue to rise to near 24.0 feet by Thursday 
  morning. 
* Impact...At 23.5 feet...Flood water is covering the gravel road 
  south of West Point that leads to the Tibbee Creek bridge near 
  Tibbee.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Mon   Tue   Wed Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  16.4 Sun 07 PM  15.3  15.9  22.2  24.0 07 AM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$

MSC103-100723-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0024.150312T0447Z-150312T1800Z/
/MCNM6.1.ER.150312T0447Z.150312T0600Z.150312T1200Z.NO/
823 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Noxubee River At Macon
* from Wednesday evening to Thursday afternoon.
* At 8:00 PM Sunday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Wednesday 
  before midnight and will continue to rise to near 26.1 feet by 
  early Thursday morning. 
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Low land near the river is flooded.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Mon   Tue   Wed Crest Time  Date

Noxubee River 
Macon          26  14.7 Sun 08 PM  14.5  15.4  22.2  26.1 01 AM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3300 8852 3307 8862 3314 8875 3320 8867
      3313 8855 3304 8845             



$$
9 follow-up statements
536 
WGUS84 KJAN 091624
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1124 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County 
  Noxubee River At Macon affecting Noxubee County 


SYNOPSIS...

A stagnant weather pattern is expected this week...with several 
waves of low pressure expected to move through an unusually moist 
airmass across the region. This will result in several rounds of 
moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms through the 
work week.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches over the next 5 days are expected 
to be common...somewhat heavier localized totals are possible
in narrow stripes where training thunderstorms occur.

The first significant rainfall event will be from Monday night into 
Tuesday night where 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be common across 
the area. The next wave of precipitation will begin Wednesday night 
and will end early Friday morning. There is a possibility of another 
2 to 4 inches during this time frame with the heaviest rainfall 
setting up across East and Northeast Mississippi. Significant flash 
flooding could occur where storms with intense rainfall rates train 
across the same areas. 

The current river forecasts contain only 48 hour of additional rainfall.
Forecsts could go higher later in the week if current projects of
rainfall remain in place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.


Additional information is available at:  
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC025-102224-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0023.150311T2324Z-000000T0000Z/
/TBBM6.1.ER.150311T2324Z.150313T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1124 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee
* from Wednesday evening until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Monday the stage was 13.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Wednesday 
  evening and will continue to rise to near 24.7 feet by Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 23.5 feet...Flood water is covering the gravel road 
  south of West Point that leads to the Tibbee Creek bridge near 
  Tibbee.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Tue   Wed   Thu Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  13.6 Mon 10 AM  13.4  19.7  24.2  24.7 07 PM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$

MSC103-102224-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0024.150311T2322Z-150314T1500Z/
/MCNM6.1.ER.150311T2322Z.150312T1800Z.150314T0900Z.NO/
1124 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Noxubee River At Macon
* from Wednesday evening to Saturday morning.
* At 11:00 AM Monday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Wednesday 
  evening and will continue to rise to near 29.3 feet by early 
  Thursday afternoon. 
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Farm land near the river begins to flood.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Low land near the river is flooded.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Tue   Wed   Thu Crest Time  Date

Noxubee River 
Macon          26  14.6 Mon 11 AM  14.5  20.3  28.9  29.3 01 PM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3300 8852 3307 8862 3314 8875 3320 8867
      3313 8855 3304 8845             



$$
073 
WGUS84 KJAN 100134
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
834 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County 
  Noxubee River At Macon affecting Noxubee County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 12 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC025-110734-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0023.150312T0000Z-150315T0000Z/
/TBBM6.1.ER.150312T0000Z.150313T0600Z.150314T1800Z.NO/
834 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tibbee Creek near Tibbee
* from Wednesday evening to Saturday evening.
* At  7:30 PM Monday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Wednesday 
  evening and will continue to rise to near 24.7 feet by early Friday
  morning. 
* Impact...At 23.5 feet...Flood water is covering the gravel road 
  south of West Point that leads to the Tibbee Creek bridge near 
  Tibbee.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Flooding in low areas on the left bank is 
  occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Tue   Wed   Thu Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  12.4 Mon 07 PM  13.1  19.6  24.0  24.7 01 AM 03/13


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$

MSC103-110734-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0024.150312T0025Z-150314T1545Z/
/MCNM6.1.ER.150312T0025Z.150313T0000Z.150314T0945Z.NO/
834 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Noxubee River At Macon
* from Wednesday evening to Saturday morning.
* At  8:00 PM Monday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Wednesday 
  evening and will continue to rise to near 28.8 feet by Thursday 
  evening. 
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Farm land near the river begins to flood.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Low land near the river is flooded.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Tue   Wed   Thu Crest Time  Date

Noxubee River 
Macon          26  14.6 Mon 08 PM  15.0  21.0  28.1  28.8 07 PM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3300 8852 3307 8862 3314 8875 3320 8867
      3313 8855 3304 8845             



$$
496 
WGUS84 KJAN 110149
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
849 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County 
  Noxubee River At Macon affecting Noxubee County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC025-120749-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0023.150314T1200Z-150315T0000Z/
/TBBM6.1.ER.150314T1200Z.150314T1200Z.150314T1800Z.NO/
849 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tibbee Creek near Tibbee
* from Saturday morning to Saturday evening.
* At  8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 14.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Flooding in low areas on the left bank is 
  occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  14.5 Tue 08 PM  16.6  21.1  21.8  23.0 07 AM 03/14


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$

MSC103-120749-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0024.150313T0224Z-150313T1912Z/
/MCNM6.1.ER.150313T0224Z.150313T0600Z.150313T1312Z.NO/
849 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Noxubee River at Macon
* from Thursday evening to Friday afternoon.
* At  8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 20.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Thursday before
  midnight and will continue to rise to near 26.6 feet by early 
  Friday morning. 
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Low land near the river is flooded.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Noxubee River 
Macon          26  20.1 Tue 08 PM  21.4  22.7  26.3  26.6 01 AM 03/13


&&


LAT...LON 3300 8852 3307 8862 3314 8875 3320 8867
      3313 8855 3304 8845             



$$
601 
WGUS84 KJAN 111521
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1021 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.


Additional information is available at:  
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC025-122121-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0023.150314T0600Z-150315T0000Z/
/TBBM6.1.ER.150314T0600Z.150314T0600Z.150314T1800Z.NO/
1021 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2015


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee
* from late Friday night to Saturday evening.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early 
  Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Flooding in low areas on the left bank is 
  occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  17.5 Wed 09 AM  22.0  22.4  23.0  23.0 01 AM 03/14


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$
068 
WGUS84 KJAN 120121
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
821 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur over the next 12 hours.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC025-130721-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0023.150315T0000Z-150315T1200Z/
/TBBM6.1.ER.150315T0000Z.150315T0000Z.150315T0600Z.NO/
821 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee
* from Saturday evening to Sunday morning.
* At 7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 19 feet.
* Flood stage is 23 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest near flood stage 
  on Saturday.
* Impact...At 23 feet...Flooding in low areas on the left bank is 
  occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  19.0 Wed  7 PM  21.2  21.9  22.1  23.0  7 PM  3/14


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$

DL
513 
WGUS84 KJAN 121643
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1143 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County 

SYNOPSIS...

Do not expect much rainfall today. However...a surface low will 
move out of the Gulf of Mexico this morning and into eastern
Texas and up into southwest Arkansas by tomorrow. As this
occurs, Very moist air over the Gulf of Mexico southeast of 
New Orleans will begin to push northward into our County Warning
Area (CWA) tonight. Rainfall amounts are expected to 
be between 2 and 4 inches across all but our eastern counties. 
There is good potential for bands of very heavy rainfall where 
storms train over the same location tonight into Friday morning. 
Rainfall amounts could be higher than 4 inches in these bands. 
The location of these heavier rainfall bands is uncertain. 



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur.  Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.


Additional information is available at:  
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC025-132243-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0023.150315T0000Z-150316T0600Z/
/TBBM6.1.ER.150315T0000Z.150315T0600Z.150316T0000Z.NO/
1143 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015

...Flood Warning extended until late Sunday night...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee
* from Saturday evening to late Sunday night.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Saturday 
  evening and will continue to rise to near 23.2 feet by early Sunday
  morning.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Flooding in low areas on the left bank is 
  occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  21.0 Thu 10 AM  21.7  22.3  23.2  23.2 01 AM 03/15


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$
234 
WGUS84 KJAN 122010
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
310 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.


Additional information is available at:  
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC025-140210-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0023.150315T1800Z-150316T1200Z/
/TBBM6.1.ER.150315T1800Z.150316T0000Z.150316T0600Z.NO/
310 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee
* from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning.
* At  2:30 PM Thursday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by early Sunday 
  afternoon and will continue to rise to near 23.2 feet by Sunday 
  evening. 
* Impact...At 23.5 feet...Flood water is covering the gravel road 
  south of West Point that leads to the Tibbee Creek bridge near 
  Tibbee.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Flooding in low areas on the left bank is 
  occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  21.4 Thu 02 PM  22.2  22.1  22.8  23.2 07 PM 03/15


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$
415 
WGUS84 KJAN 130104
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
804 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC025-140704-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0023.150315T1800Z-150316T0900Z/
/TBBM6.1.ER.150315T1800Z.150316T0000Z.150316T0300Z.NO/
804 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2015


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee
* from Sunday afternoon to late Sunday night.
* At  7:30 PM Thursday the stage was 21.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by early Sunday 
  afternoon and will continue to rise to near 23.1 feet by Sunday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Flooding in low areas on the left bank is 
  occurring.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  21.6 Thu 07 PM  22.1  22.1  22.8  23.1 07 PM 03/15


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$
914 
WGUS84 KJAN 131510
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1010 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers 
in Mississippi...
 
  Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee affecting Clay County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.


Additional information is available at:  
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC025-131540-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-150316T0900Z/
/TBBM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tibbee Creek Near Tibbee.
* At  9:30 AM Friday the stage was 21.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 21.8 feet. The 
  river will fall to 20.9 feet by .


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Tibbee Creek
Tibbee         23  21.6 Fri 09 AM  20.9  19.7  18.7               


&&


LAT...LON 3352 8851 3352 8863 3356 8880 3365 8871
      3359 8861 3357 8853             



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 8, 3:23 PM CDT, 5 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 8, 3:23 PM CDT, 5 hours before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON AS VEIL OF LIGHT
RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD AT THE MOMENT. THIS FIRST
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND SERVE MORE TO MOISTEN
UP THE LOWER LEVELS FOR WHAT IS TO COME LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY HELPING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MID
LEVELS...SW FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL CONUS STATES
AS TROF MOVES OUT OF THE BAJA REGION AND DIGGING SOUTH OVER OLD
MEXICO.

AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. AS WIND FIELDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO PROXIMITY OF
FAVORED QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET...WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH
LATENT HEATING WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TROFFINESS AND EVENTUALLY
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP SOME SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN
MOISTURE AVAILIBILITY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE IN PLACE. ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PW VALUES NEAR 1.7 INCHES WILL SURGE INLAND WITH THE WARM
SECTOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE TUESDAY...WILL EASILY SEE A MORE
TROPICAL NATURE TO THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARY
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER...OUTSIDE THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PEPPERED ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE. AT THE MOMENT...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO OUR MS COUNTIES AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP NEAR THE MS RIVER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS
COULD EASILY AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST DURING FIRST HALF OF LONG TERM PERIOD. WED SHOULD BE A
BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS RATHER POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
EJECTS TOWARD REGION OUT OF DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER
GULF WHICH WILL HELP SPREAD ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE BACK NW ACROSS
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AREA WILL LIE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET TO OUR N...AND SLOWLY EJECTING WAVE WILL
RESULT IN BROAD LIFT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/TSRA ACROSS AREA FROM WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.

GFS/EC SHOW PW VALUES IN 1.5 TO 1.75" RANGE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WHICH IS AT CLIMO MAX FOR TIME OF YEAR. STREAMLINE
FORECASTS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM EAST PAC...GULF
AND CARIBBEAN CONVERGING OVER AREA...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM HERE NE. GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON QPF TOTALS OF 3-6"
NEXT 5 DAYS FROM SC MS NE THROUGH GOLDEN TRIANGLE INTO N AL. WHILE
ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT LOOK TO STRONGLY DESTABILIZE...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST TALL...NARROW CAPE AREAS FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING TSRA. FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BUMPING INTO VERY
STRONG RIDGE TO OUR EAST SUGGESTS SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT...
INCREASING RISK FOR TRAINING AND LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.
CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING IN HWO.

AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY EXPECT A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
AS THU/FRI WAVE LIFTS NE INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS
SUGGEST A NEW MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER NW MEXICO AND
MEANDERS S...RESULTING IN TRANSIENT RIDGING AND LESS PRECIP CHANCES
LATE IN LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL GO ALONG WITH THIS IDEA FOR
NOW...WITH CAVEAT THAT HAVING AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO COULD MEAN
RETURN OF PRECIP CHANCES MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED./8/

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NW 1/2 OF THE AREA
AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN IS FALLING OUT OF A MID DECK INTO A VERY
DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...HENCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE LOWERING OF CIGS OR
VSBYS. AFTER 03Z BETTER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BY 09Z-12Z AS RAIN PERSISTS. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF
MONDAY./8/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       47  61  57  72 /  68  92  99 100
MERIDIAN      47  61  57  73 /  29  77 100 100
VICKSBURG     47  60  57  70 /  88  95  99 100
HATTIESBURG   49  62  61  75 /  26  67  86  89
NATCHEZ       48  62  60  70 /  88  89  93 100
GREENVILLE    44  55  52  67 /  86  96 100  89
GREENWOOD     45  56  54  69 /  84  95  98 100

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 8, 2:16 PM CDT, 6 hours 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
216 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
091930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
216 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HEAVIER RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SOME FLOODING CONCERNS.

A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...AND
ADDITIONAL ISSUES WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
MISSISSIPPI.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

8

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 8, 8:23 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningJANNoxubee4 days
Mar 9, 10:37 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningJANLeake13 days
Mar 9, 10:37 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningJANLeake13 days
Mar 9, 10:37 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningJANLeake5 days
Mar 9, 10:37 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningJANLeake12 days
Mar 9, 10:58 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningJANCopiah, Simpson5 days
Mar 9, 10:58 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningJANLawrence9 days
Mar 9, 11:22 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningJANCarroll, Leflore7 days

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.