Areal Flood Warning 49, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER LESS
HUMID AIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH GULF FETCH FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 4. WITH SOME
INSTABILITY STILL AVAILABLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN
THAT AREA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD SEE THAT POTENTIAL
SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOVING INTO THE MORNING COULD SEE A FEW
BRIEF HOURS WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY IN THE AREA BUT THEN MODELS ARE
SHOWING MOVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WITH A LITTLE TIME TO
RECHARGE AND MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES LEFT ACROSS THE AREA TO INTERACT
WITH COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE BEST TIMING FOR INITIATION WOULD BE IN THE 16-20Z
TIMEFRAME...WITH ALL STORMS BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 0Z.

WITH CREEKS AND STREAMS HIGH AND SATURATED SOILS DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE HIGHEST TODAY. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT A QUICK INCH OF
RAIN COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS IN PLACES DUE TO
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD GET INTO THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO
LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST AND HIGH HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
DRY WEATHER TO FINALLY PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE CONSTANT
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL MOVE INTO PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY BUT HUMIDITY WILL START
TO RETURN BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS IT
DOES SO A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE COOLER LESS
HUMID AIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH GULF FETCH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FLATTEN A BIT BY
THE START OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...A NORTH AND SOUTH ORIENTED WARM
FRONT SHOULD LIFT EAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER ZONAL
PUSH. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SPARSE
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT
LAKES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST AS THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. EVEN SO...WILL NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS THAT FAR OUT
WITH TIMING ERRORS POSSIBLE.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS WEEKEND ALONG
WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE PER REGIONAL BLEND. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WARM
BY MONDAY...WHEN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND OR DEBRIS INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 140600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH
COVERAGE GENERALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. AS 850MB JET OF 25-30 KTS
SAGS SOUTH WITH TIME...EXPECTING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT TO DO SO AS
WELL. APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY 140800Z IN THE
VICINITY OF KIND/KHUF/KBMG. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME CEILINGS AROUND 010 TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE AREAS...SURFACE WINDS 220-250 DEGREES AT 6-9
KTS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO 260-290 DEGREES AT 10-14
KTS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ038>042-046>049-
053>057-061>065-068>072.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>037-043>045-051-052-060-067.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
736 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-142345-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
736 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAT WILL ALSO AN ISSUE WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS THIS EVENING.

RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY
RAIN...FLOODING AND FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HIGH HEAT INDICES.

TIMING: SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ANYTIME...BUT BEST
CHANCE WILL BE LATE EVENING TO A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE
HEAT THIS AFTERNOON EARLY THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION: A STATIONARY FRONT AND UPPER WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE AND OR PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE HEAT INDEX WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO 100 DEGREES OR MORE
IN THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DISCUSSION: FRONTAL SYSTEMS ALONG WITH UPPER WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE AROUND A SOUTHERN PLAINS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND RESULT
IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN STARTING LATE
THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
219 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SPEEDWAY                39.79N  86.25W
07/14/2015                   MARION             IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN SHORTLY BEFORE AND AFTER THIS
            TIME...SEVERAL ON VEHICLES. SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE
            REPORTED AT CRAWFORDSVILLE AND LYNHURST. DAMAGE ALSO AT
            GERRARD AND 21ST STREET.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SPEEDWAY                39.79N  86.25W
07/14/2015                   MARION             IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STREET FLOODING ONE FOOT DEEPAT WINSTON AND 22ND
            STREET. UTILITY LINES DOWN ON 22ND AND FISHER BLOCKING
            ROAD.

0220 AM     FLOOD            SPEEDWAY                39.79N  86.25W
07/14/2015                   MARION             IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STREET FLOODING ONE FOOT DEEPAT WINSTON AND 22ND
            STREET. UTILITY LINES DOWN ON 22ND AND FISHER BLOCKING
            ROAD.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE INDIANAPOLIS       39.76N  86.12W
07/14/2015                   MARION             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREE BRANCHES DOWN UP TO 1.5 INCHES THICK AND
            SEVERAL FEET THICK

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
301 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     HAIL             1 SW SHELBYVILLE        39.51N  85.79W
07/14/2015  E0.25 INCH       SHELBY             IN   PUBLIC

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
329 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW INDIANAPOLIS       39.76N  86.17W
07/14/2015                   MARION             IN   STATE OFFICIAL

            INDIANA DHS CALLED REPORTING TREES DOWN...POWER LINES
            DOWN AND DAMAGE TO HOMES FROM AROUND 10TH AND TIBBS
            STREET TO MERIDIAN STREET AND THOMPSON ROAD.

&&

MKOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     FLOOD            NASHVILLE               39.20N  86.24W
07/14/2015                   BROWN              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALONG WIHT MULTIPLE TREES AND
            POWERLINES DOWN.

0236 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NASHVILLE               39.20N  86.24W
07/14/2015                   BROWN              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALONG WIHT MULTIPLE TREES AND
            POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

ELB