Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
256 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

Latest surface analysis indicates the frontal boundary that was
holding stationary over south central Illinois has shifted further
north early this morning as a weak wave of low pressure was
approaching west central Illinois. Scattered convection has been
occurring north of the boundary over parts of east central Iowa
east into our far northern counties with some nickel hail reported
over the past hour around Lacon in Marshall county. We expect the
scattered convection to continue into the morning hours as the wave
rides east along the boundary. As the surface low shifts to our east
later this morning, there may actually be a southward push to the
front which is going to cause some significant problems with respect
to the afternoon temperatures, especially along and north of I-74.
The latest HRRR does indicate another weak wave forming to our west
along the boundary early this afternoon with another complex of
storms approaching west central IL. Not sure if this particular
complex of storms will ride along the boundary into central Illinois
or dive more southeast into the higher instability air mass south
of the front. POPs will increase again this afternoon in response to
this secondary wave approaching from the west. Severe potential
increases this afternoon thru this evening as the boundary gets
a push northward as the more significant shortwave pushes into the
Plains. With the warm front expected to edge across the area this
afternoon and evening, damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated
tornadoes will all be possible. The tornado threat looks tied more
into areas along and just north of the warm front later this
afternoon and evening. Coolest temps north of I-74 where more of an
easterly flow will prevail, while south of the boundary, a blend of
the MET/MAV guid seems reasonable at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

Severe weather threat through Thursday evening continues to dominate
the first part of the forecast. Current upper low moving into
northwest Nevada will open up but remain a fairly sharp wave as it
traverses the Plains on Thursday. This will help develop a surface
low over western Kansas this evening, which will surge northeast and
shove the frontal boundary back northward tonight. The trailing cold
front will sweep from west to east across the state Thursday evening
as a result.

Convection to our southwest expected to expand northeastward into
the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening. Latest SPC Day1 outlook
extended the slight risk across the entire CWA, with an enhanced
risk of severe storms from basically Springfield-Peoria westward.
This enhanced risk covers the entire area on Thursday, with
high-resolution models focusing on the mid-afternoon through early
evening time frame as the best potential in our area.

Short period of cooler and drier weather on tap for the first part
of the weekend, as high pressure drifts across the Midwest. However,
longer range models showing extended periods of rain chances early
next week. The GFS and ECMWF have a sizable range on the position
of a frontal boundary that will be setting up Sunday night and
Monday, both starting off roughly along I-70 but the GFS shows a
much stronger surge to the north by Tuesday. However, with both
favoring some sort of precip, have kept healthy rain chances in the
forecast for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

A stationary front extending across central IL, just north of
I-70, is forecast to drift slowly northward overnight, in response
to the approach of a weakening low pressure center across
Missouri. The surface low and associated 500mb shortwave will help
trigger showers and storms in central IL the rest of the night.

A complex of storms has already developed west of PIA in SE Iowa.
The track of those storms looks to be just NW of PIA airport.
However, the HRRR and NCEP 4km WRF show additional development is
expected to the SE of the current storms. The new storms should
affect PIA and BMI between 07z and 12z, with the southern extend
possibly affecting the other terminal sites during that time.

SPI/DEC/CMI sites have returned to MVFR cloud heights. PIA/BMI
have remained LIFR due to 200ft cigs. BMI with vis now at 1/2sm FG.
Clouds are forecast to remain status quo for much of the night,
with some improvement as storms/showers pass near the terminals.

The weakening low pressure is still progged to advance across
central IL through early morning, dissipating before it reaches
Indiana. That will keep storm chances going through around 12z.

Additional storms are forecast to arrive tomorrow evening, per the
4km WRF.

ESE winds of 10-15kt will continue at 8-12kt overnight, with wind
directions highly dependent on how far north the stationary front
drifts by morning. Winds tomorrow morning could become variable
under the front, and eventually prevail from the N for PIA and
southwest for BMI/SPI/DEC/CMI. The GFS and NAM have differing wind
solutions, but went closer to the NAM with this set of TAFs.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
316 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-081115-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
316 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 51 FROM BLOOMINGTON TO SHELBYVILLE. PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY WINDS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-081115-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
316 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT FROM I-74 NORTH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 51...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL
AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
143 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ILZ027-080730-
KNOX-
143 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY UNTIL 230 AM
CDT...

AT 140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH HENDERSON...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
GALESBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ONEIDA...
  ALTONA...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4115 9000 4115 8999 4105 8999 4103 9044
      4115 9045 4116 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 259DEG 31KT 4109 9042

SHIMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
214 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ILZ028-030-080815-
MARSHALL-STARK-
214 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND STARK
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 212 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GALVA TO VICTORIA...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LA FAYETTE...
  WEST JERSEY...
  ELMIRA...
  TOULON...
  OSCEOLA...
  WYOMING...
  LACON...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4124 8964 4115 8963 4115 8933 4115 8932
      4112 8932 4111 8934 4111 8932 4101 8934
      4099 8998 4115 8998 4116 8988 4124 8987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 264DEG 35KT 4114 9003 4102 9010

SHIMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ILZ029-030-080845-
MARSHALL-PEORIA-
313 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARSHALL AND NORTHEASTERN PEORIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 307 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPARLAND...OR NEAR LACON...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN MARSHALL AND PEORIA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
SPARLAND...LACON...VARNA...TOLUCA AND WENONA...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4112 8932 4111 8934 4111 8905 4110 8904
      4097 8904 4092 8953 4110 8957 4114 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 260DEG 31KT 4103 8943

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
326 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ILZ029-031-037-080930-
PEORIA-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
326 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PEORIA...NORTHERN
TAZEWELL AND NORTHERN WOODFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 322 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING BAY...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PEORIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN PEORIA...TAZEWELL AND WOODFORD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF GERMANTOWN HILLS...SPRING BAY...METAMORA...ROANOKE AND
MINONK...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4092 8893 4076 8892 4072 8954 4089 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 0826Z 263DEG 33KT 4082 8944

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
341 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     HAIL             WYOMING                 41.06N 89.77W
04/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       STARK              IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HAIL RANGING FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZE.

&&

GEELHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
402 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

ILZ044-053-054-080945-
MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
402 AM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MACON...NORTHERN MOULTRIE
AND SOUTHERN PIATT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 357 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LONG CREEK...
  CERRO GORDO...
  HAMMOND...
  BEMENT...
  ATWOOD...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...ELWIN...HERVEY CITY...DECATUR
AIRPORT...OAKLEY...LA PLACE AND MILMINE.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3978 8847 3971 8902 3989 8907 4002 8846
      3979 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0903Z 258DEG 29KT 3982 8892

SMITH